First Detailed Calculation of Atmospheric Neutrino Foregrounds to the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background in Super-Kamiokande

The Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB) -- a probe of the core-collapse mechanism and the cosmic star-formation history -- has not been detected, but its discovery may be imminent. A significant obstacle for DSNB detection in Super-Kamiokande (Super-K) is detector backgrounds, especially due to atmospheric neutrinos (more precisely, these are foregrounds), which are not sufficiently understood. We perform the first detailed theoretical calculations of these foregrounds in the range 16--90 MeV in detected electron energy, taking into account several physical and detector effects, quantifying uncertainties, and comparing our predictions to the 15.9 livetime years of pre-gadolinium data from Super-K stages I--IV. We show that our modeling reasonably reproduces this low-energy data as well as the usual high-energy atmospheric-neutrino data. To accelerate progress on detecting the DSNB, we outline key actions to be taken in future theoretical and experimental work. In a forthcoming paper, we use our modeling to detail how low-energy atmospheric-neutrino events register in Super-K and suggest new cuts to reduce their impact.