COVID-19's Unequal Toll: An assessment of small business impact disparities with respect to ethnorace in metropolitan areas in the US using mobility data

Early in the pandemic, counties and states implemented a variety of non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) focused on mobility, such as national lockdowns or work-from-home strategies, as it became clear that restricting movement was essential to containing the epidemic. Due to these restrictions, businesses were severely affected and in particular, small, urban restaurant businesses. In addition to that, COVID-19 has also amplified many of the socioeconomic disparities and systemic racial inequities that exist in our society. The overarching objective of this study was to examine the changes in small urban restaurant visitation patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic and associated mobility restrictions, as well as to uncover potential disparities across different racial/ethnic groups in order to understand inequities in the impact and recovery. Specifically, the two key objectives were: 1) to analyze the overall changes in restaurant visitation patterns in US metropolitan areas during the pandemic compared to a pre-pandemic baseline, and 2) to investigate differences in visitation pattern changes across Census Block Groups with majority Asian, Black, Hispanic, White, and American Indian populations, identifying any disproportionate effects. Using aggregated geolocated cell phone data from SafeGraph, we document the overall changes in small urban restaurant businesses' visitation patterns with respect to racial composition at a granularity of Census Block Groups. Our results show clear indications of reduced visitation patterns after the pandemic, with slow recoveries. Via visualizations and statistical analyses, we show that reductions in visitation patterns were the highest for small urban restaurant businesses in majority Asian neighborhoods.