In Search of Quantum Advantage: Estimating the Number of Shots in Quantum Kernel Methods

Quantum Machine Learning (QML) has gathered significant attention through approaches like Quantum Kernel Machines. While these methods hold considerable promise, their quantum nature presents inherent challenges. One major challenge is the limited resolution of estimated kernel values caused by the finite number of circuit runs performed on a quantum device. In this study, we propose a comprehensive system of rules and heuristics for estimating the required number of circuit runs in quantum kernel methods. We introduce two critical effects that necessitate an increased measurement precision through additional circuit runs: the spread effect and the concentration effect. The effects are analyzed in the context of fidelity and projected quantum kernels. To address these phenomena, we develop an approach for estimating desired precision of kernel values, which, in turn, is translated into the number of circuit runs. Our methodology is validated through extensive numerical simulations, focusing on the problem of exponential value concentration. We stress that quantum kernel methods should not only be considered from the machine learning performance perspective, but also from the context of the resource consumption. The results provide insights into the possible benefits of quantum kernel methods, offering a guidance for their application in quantum machine learning tasks.