Reliable Detections of Atmospheres on Rocky Exoplanets with Photometric JWST Phase Curves

The prevalence of atmospheres on rocky planets is one of the major questions in exoplanet astronomy, but there are currently no published unambiguous detections of atmospheres on any rocky exoplanets. The MIRI instrument on JWST can measure thermal emission from tidally locked rocky exoplanets orbiting small, cool stars. This emission is a function of their surface and atmospheric properties, potentially allowing detections of atmospheres. One way to find atmospheres is to search for lower day-side emission than would be expected for a black body planet. Another technique is to measure phase curves of thermal emission to search for night-side emission due to atmospheric heat redistribution. Here, we compare strategies for detecting atmospheres on rocky exoplanets. We simulate secondary eclipse and phase curve observations in the MIRI F1500W and F1280W filters, for a range of surfaces (providing our open access albedo data) and atmospheres on thirty exoplanets selected for their F1500W signal-to-noise ratio. We show that secondary eclipse observations are more degenerate between surfaces and atmospheres than suggested in previous work, and that thick atmospheres can support emission consistent with a black body planet in these filters. These results make it difficult to unambiguously detect or rule out atmospheres using their photometric day-side emission alone. We suggest that an F1500W phase curve could instead be observed for a similar sample of planets. While phase curves are time-consuming and their instrumental systematics can be challenging, we suggest that they allow the only unambiguous detections of atmospheres by night-side thermal emission.