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arxiv: 2512.22051 · v2 · pith:5M2RONR5new · submitted 2025-12-26 · 💰 econ.TH · cs.GT

Centralization and Stability in Formal Constitutions

Pith reviewed 2026-05-16 19:47 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💰 econ.TH cs.GT
keywords social choice functionself-maintainingcentralizationdictatorshipvoting dynamicsinstitution designDAO
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The pith

Only dictatorships are self-maintaining when social choice functions can vote to replace themselves.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper models a formal constitution where the current voting rule aggregates votes on whether to replace itself with another rule. An SCF is self-maintaining if no other rule can replace it through this process. In the case of agents with independent unbiased beliefs, only dictatorships resist replacement while all other functions have sequences of changes leading to a dictatorship. Under pessimistic beliefs with status-quo bias in ties, the stable rules are those where minimal winning coalitions have size at most two. Allowing voters to be forward-looking or to value crowd wisdom permits less centralized rules to become self-maintaining.

Core claim

For the i.i.d. unbiased case with arbitrary tie-breaking and general Boolean functions, only a dictatorship is self-maintaining, and any other SCF has a path of changes that arrives at a dictatorship. With a pessimistic approach, tie-breaking that prefers the status quo, and WMGs, the self-maintaining rules are exactly all games with minimal winning coalitions of size at most 2.

What carries the argument

The self-maintaining property of an SCF, which checks whether its own aggregation prevents replacement by any alternative rule under given agent beliefs.

If this is right

  • Any non-dictatorial SCF can be replaced through a sequence of votes until a dictatorship is reached.
  • Self-maintaining SCFs under pessimistic beliefs are precisely the weighted majority games whose smallest winning coalitions have size at most two.
  • Forward-looking voters or crowd-wisdom payoffs enlarge the set of self-maintaining rules beyond pure dictatorships.
  • The framework directly constrains which voting rules can persist in self-referential systems such as DAOs.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Starting with a decentralized rule may still produce centralization over time unless belief models include forward-looking or wisdom effects.
  • Stability could be tested by varying the distribution of agent beliefs and tracking whether replacement paths terminate.
  • The same replacement logic may apply to other self-governing systems such as algorithmic governance protocols.

Load-bearing premise

Agents vote according to ex-ante beliefs about whether future decisions are better handled by the current SCF or the proposed replacement.

What would settle it

An experiment or simulation in which a non-dictatorial SCF persists unchanged across multiple replacement votes under i.i.d. unbiased agent beliefs.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2512.22051 by Yotam Gafni.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Stable oligarchies as a function of λ and p. Black x marks are used for small oligarchies (such as dictatorship, consensus-duopoly and 3-oligopoly), and blue circles for larger-value oligarchies (upwards of i = 10). longer self-maintaining, and we remain only with the dictatorship and (possibly) a small oligarchy. As we reach the high λ, high p corner, a dictatorship is the only self-maintaining rule. To s… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Two-dimensional Slices of the three-dimensional graph of stable-oligarchies as a function of [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Centralization dynamics for different extraction Levels ( [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_3.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Consider a social-choice function (SCF) is chosen to decide votes in a formal system, including votes to replace the voting method itself. Agents vote according to their ex-ante belief over what decisions are considered, and whether they prefer them to be decided by the incumbent SCF or the suggested replacement. The existing SCF then aggregates the agents' votes and arrives at a decision of whether it should itself be replaced. An SCF is self-maintaining if it can not be replaced in such fashion by any other SCF. Our focus is on the implications of self-maintenance for centralization. For this purpose, unlike [Barbera and Jackson, 2004], we do not generally restrict attention to anonymous SCFs. We also do not restrict attention to neutral SCFs, unlike [Koray, 2000]. We present results considering optimistic, pessimistic and i.i.d. approaches with respect to agent beliefs, different tie-breaking rules, and different SCF domains. To highlight two of the results, (i) for the i.i.d. unbiased case with arbitrary tie-breaking and general Boolean functions, we prove an Arrow-Style Theorem for Dynamics: We show that only a dictatorship is self-maintaining, and any other SCF has a path of changes that arrives at a dictatorship. (ii) With a pessimistic approach, tie-breaking that prefers the status quo, and WMGs, we provide a tight characterization of the self-maintaining rules, which are exactly all games with minimal winning coalitions of size at most 2. We then consider two extensions, (i) forward-looking voters, (ii) Where the voter utility depends on wisdom of the crowd effects. In both cases, less centralized SCFs become self-maintaining. All in all we provide a basic framework and body of results for centralization dynamics and stability, applicable for institution design, especially in formal De-Jure systems, such as Blockchain Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs).

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper models social choice functions (SCFs) that aggregate votes on their own potential replacement, where agents vote according to ex-ante beliefs over whether decisions are better handled by the incumbent SCF or a suggested alternative. An SCF is self-maintaining if no replacement occurs under the induced dynamics. The central results are: (i) under i.i.d. unbiased beliefs, arbitrary tie-breaking, and general Boolean SCFs, only dictatorships are self-maintaining and every other SCF admits a finite path of replacements leading to a dictatorship (an Arrow-style theorem for dynamics); (ii) under pessimistic beliefs, status-quo-favoring tie-breaking, and weighted majority games (WMGs), the self-maintaining rules are exactly those whose minimal winning coalitions have size at most 2. Two extensions (forward-looking voters; wisdom-of-the-crowd utility) are shown to enlarge the set of self-maintaining, less-centralized SCFs. The framework is motivated by formal constitutions such as blockchain DAOs.

Significance. If the derivations hold, the paper supplies a clean dynamic model of constitutional stability that directly links belief assumptions and tie-breaking rules to the emergence or persistence of centralization. The explicit Arrow-style result under i.i.d. unbiased beliefs and the tight characterization for WMGs are parameter-free within the stated domain and therefore falsifiable in principle. The extensions illustrate how modest changes in voter foresight or aggregation externalities can stabilize decentralization, offering a useful template for institutional design in formal systems.

major comments (2)
  1. [i.i.d. unbiased case] i.i.d. unbiased case (Arrow-style theorem): the claim that every non-dictatorship admits a replacement path to dictatorship is stated for arbitrary Boolean functions and arbitrary tie-breaking, yet the manuscript provides no explicit construction or inductive step showing how the ex-ante-belief aggregation produces the next SCF in the path; a concrete two- or three-agent example would confirm the argument does not tacitly rely on anonymity or neutrality.
  2. [pessimistic approach] Pessimistic WMG characterization: the statement that self-maintaining rules are exactly the WMGs whose minimal winning coalitions have size ≤2 is tight only under status-quo tie-breaking; the manuscript should verify that the same coalition-size bound continues to characterize stability when the tie-breaking rule is altered or when the domain is restricted to anonymous SCFs.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The acronym WMG is introduced without expansion in the abstract and early sections; spell out 'weighted majority game' on first use.
  2. [Extensions] The two extensions (forward-looking voters; wisdom-of-the-crowd effects) are described qualitatively; a short table comparing the sets of self-maintaining SCFs across the base model and each extension would improve readability.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the careful reading and constructive suggestions. We address each major comment below and will revise the manuscript to incorporate the requested clarifications and examples.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: [i.i.d. unbiased case] i.i.d. unbiased case (Arrow-style theorem): the claim that every non-dictatorship admits a replacement path to dictatorship is stated for arbitrary Boolean functions and arbitrary tie-breaking, yet the manuscript provides no explicit construction or inductive step showing how the ex-ante-belief aggregation produces the next SCF in the path; a concrete two- or three-agent example would confirm the argument does not tacitly rely on anonymity or neutrality.

    Authors: We agree that an explicit example will improve transparency. The proof proceeds by constructing, for any non-dictatorial Boolean SCF, a profile of i.i.d. unbiased beliefs under which a decisive coalition votes to replace it with a dictatorship (or an intermediate SCF with strictly smaller support). In the revision we will insert a self-contained three-agent example with a specific non-dictatorial SCF, arbitrary tie-breaking, and the induced belief profile that produces the first replacement step, followed by the terminal step to dictatorship. This will confirm that the argument relies only on the stated assumptions and does not invoke anonymity or neutrality. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [pessimistic approach] Pessimistic WMG characterization: the statement that self-maintaining rules are exactly the WMGs whose minimal winning coalitions have size ≤2 is tight only under status-quo tie-breaking; the manuscript should verify that the same coalition-size bound continues to characterize stability when the tie-breaking rule is altered or when the domain is restricted to anonymous SCFs.

    Authors: The theorem is stated for status-quo-favoring tie-breaking, which is the maintained assumption throughout that section. Under random tie-breaking the bound fails to characterize stability (larger minimal winning coalitions can become self-maintaining). We will add a short remark and a counter-example illustrating this change. For the anonymous subdomain the same size-≤2 bound continues to hold, because every anonymous WMG is a special case of the general WMGs already covered; we will note this explicitly in the revision. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; derivation self-contained from explicit definitions

full rationale

The paper defines self-maintenance directly from ex-ante agent beliefs over SCF replacement and the aggregation rule of the incumbent SCF. The Arrow-style theorem for the i.i.d. unbiased case is then proved by constructing explicit replacement paths for non-dictatorial Boolean SCFs that terminate at dictatorship, using only the stated tie-breaking rules and the belief model. No parameter is fitted to data and then relabeled as a prediction, no uniqueness theorem is imported from the authors' prior work, and no ansatz is smuggled via self-citation. The central result follows from the model equations without reduction to its own inputs by construction. Minor citations to Barbera-Jackson and Koray are external and non-load-bearing.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The model rests on standard social choice assumptions about voter behavior and aggregation, with no free parameters fitted to data and no new invented entities postulated.

free parameters (1)
  • tie-breaking rule
    Specified differently across cases (arbitrary or status-quo preferring) but not fitted to empirical data.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption Agents vote according to ex-ante beliefs about decisions and preference for incumbent versus replacement SCF.
    Core modeling choice for how votes are cast in the replacement decision.
  • standard math The incumbent SCF aggregates votes to decide on its own replacement.
    Standard definition of social choice function application.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5648 in / 1450 out tokens · 30952 ms · 2026-05-16T19:47:04.826242+00:00 · methodology

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Reference graph

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