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arxiv: 2607.00827 · v1 · pith:MP35UTSDnew · submitted 2026-07-01 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO

Cosmology from HI galaxy surveys with the SKA

Ainulnabilah Nasirudin , Philip Bull , Ziad Sakr , Jo\"el Mayor , Benedict Bahr-Kalus , Hengxing Pan , Stefano Camera , Jos\'e Fonseca
show 3 more authors
Liantsoa F. Randrianjanahary Gabriella De Lucia Marta Spinelli
This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-07-02 06:37 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO
keywords HI galaxy surveysSKAcosmologybaryon acoustic oscillationsredshift-space distortionsneutral hydrogenlarge-scale structure
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The pith

SKAO-MID HI surveys can detect several million galaxies to measure baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper provides forecasts for the number of neutral hydrogen galaxies that wide-field surveys with SKAO-MID will detect as a function of redshift. These forecasts indicate that catalogues of several million objects will be large enough to extract cosmological signals from the large-scale distribution of galaxies. Multiple models of the HI mass function are used because its evolution with redshift remains uncertain. The approach brings radio-specific advantages, including broader coverage of halo masses and the option to measure distances through the Tully-Fisher relation.

Core claim

With SKAO-MID, large wide-field surveys of several million HI-containing galaxies will become feasible, resulting in catalogues of sufficient size to measure large-scale structure observables such as baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions. Predictions for galaxy number counts versus redshift are given along with corresponding forecasts for cosmological observables, with uncertainty in the HI mass function bracketed by several different modelling methods.

What carries the argument

Galaxy number counts versus redshift derived from different HI mass function models, used to forecast the precision reachable on baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions.

If this is right

  • Radio surveys sample a broader portion of the halo mass function than optical surveys over similar areas.
  • Luminosity distances can be obtained via the Tully-Fisher relation in addition to redshift-space distortions.
  • Multiple modelling methods produce a range of predictions that can be compared once data arrive.
  • The resulting catalogues are large enough to measure both baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Combining these radio catalogues with optical surveys could tighten constraints on the growth rate of structure.
  • Tully-Fisher distances from the same galaxies would offer an independent check on distance-redshift relations.
  • Improved HI mass function measurements from the surveys themselves would narrow the current prediction spread.

Load-bearing premise

The redshift evolution of the HI mass function can be bracketed by a small set of different modelling methods.

What would settle it

Comparison of the actual number of HI galaxies detected in an early SKAO-MID survey against the predicted number counts from the models.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2607.00827 by Ainulnabilah Nasirudin, Benedict Bahr-Kalus, Gabriella De Lucia, Hengxing Pan, Jo\"el Mayor, Jos\'e Fonseca, Liantsoa F. Randrianjanahary, Marta Spinelli, Philip Bull, Stefano Camera, Ziad Sakr.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Expected natural sensitivity of SKA1-MID assuming 1 hour of observation time for the AA* and AA4 configurations (dashed and solid lines respectively), compared to the previous estimates from Santos et al. (2015) (circles). Configuration Band [MHz] 𝐴eff/𝑇sys [m2 /K] Beam FoV [deg2 ] 𝑡 𝑝 [hr] Flux rms [𝜇Jy] AA* 350 – 1050 733.2 1.78 3.55 235.2 950 – 1760 1201.4 0.47 0.95 277.8 AA4 350 – 1050 1029 1.78 3.55 1… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: The angular number density with various constant flux cuts for the S3 -SAX (solid), GAEA (dashed), and TNG100 (dash-dot) H i simulations. The left panel is a zoom-in of the 𝑧 ≤ 0.4 range of the right panel. The colours denote the fixed flux rms thresholds that are labelled on the colour bar. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 S 3 -SAX GAEA TNG100 0 1 10 100 200 J y z b ( z ) [PITH_F… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: The H i bias with various flux cuts for S3 -SAX (solid), GAEA (dash), and TNG100 (dash dot) H i simulation. The left panel is a zoom-in of the 𝑧 ≤ 0.4 range of the right panel. of magnitude or so. The peaks themselves show reasonably good agreement between simulations, to within a factor of roughly two. The bias, shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Forecast fractional errors on (left) the expansion rate, 𝐻(𝑧), and (right) angular diameter distance, 𝑑𝐴(𝑧), for the AA* and AA4 survey parameters, based on predicted number densities from S3 -SAX and GAEA. 4 2 0 2 w0 10 0 10 w a Band 1 AA* S 3SAX AA* GAEA AA4 S 3SAX AA4 GAEA 2 1 0 w0 5 0 5 w a Band 2 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Forecast 1- and 2-𝜎 contours on the dark energy equation of state parameters 𝑤0, 𝑤𝑎 from S3 -SAX and GAEA for SKA1-MID Band 1 (left) and Band 2 (right). Note the close overlap of the yellow and grey contours. 𝑤0 and 𝑤𝑎 (assuming a flat universe). A (Gaussianised) Planck CMB prior has also been included (Planck Collaboration et al., 2016). This is done for both Band 1 and Band 2, for the AA4 and AA* configu… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: (Left): Forecast fractional error on 𝐻(𝑧) parameters with AA4 survey parameters and galaxy bias and number density values obtained from the S3 -SAX simulation. (Right): Forecast 1- and 2-𝜎 contours on the dark energy equation of state parameters 𝑤0, 𝑤𝑎 for the same survey parameter/number density values. that an SKA-Mid H i galaxy survey will be able to reach 20% constraints on 𝑤0 and 40% on 𝑤𝑎 with the su… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

The 21cm line from neutral hydrogen is expected to be a ubiquitous (albeit faint) tracer of galaxies in the late Universe. With SKAO-MID, large wide-field surveys of several million HI-containing galaxies will become feasible, resulting in catalogues of sufficient size to measure large-scale structure observables such as baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions. While optical galaxy surveys over comparable areas are generally deeper, radio surveys of this kind have a number of other advantages, such as broader sampling of the halo mass function and the possibility of measuring luminosity distances via the Tully-Fisher relation. In this chapter, we provide predictions for the galaxy number counts versus redshift that will be achievable with a wide-field HI galaxy survey on SKAO-MID, along with corresponding forecasts for cosmological observables. Given the substantial uncertainty in the HI mass function with redshift, we bracket our predictions using a handful of different modelling methods.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript forecasts the number counts of HI galaxies versus redshift achievable with wide-field surveys on SKAO-MID, along with corresponding predictions for cosmological observables including BAO and RSD. It emphasizes that surveys of several million galaxies will be feasible and addresses the dominant uncertainty in the redshift evolution of the HI mass function by bracketing results across multiple independent modeling methods.

Significance. If the forecasts are robust, the work is significant for SKA planning and for establishing the complementarity of radio HI surveys to optical ones via broader halo-mass sampling and Tully-Fisher distances. Explicit credit is due for the bracketing strategy that directly confronts the main modeling uncertainty rather than relying on a single prescription.

major comments (1)
  1. [Abstract and §3] Abstract and §3 (forecasts section): the central claim that the resulting catalogues will be 'of sufficient size' to measure BAO and RSD rests on the number-count predictions; while multiple HI mass-function models are invoked to bracket uncertainty, the manuscript should report the range (min/max or 1σ envelope) of predicted number densities and the corresponding variation in the forecasted BAO/RSD error bars in a single table or figure so that the robustness of the 'sufficient size' conclusion can be assessed directly.
minor comments (2)
  1. The specific modeling methods (e.g., references or functional forms) used to bracket the HI mass function should be named explicitly in the methods or results section rather than described only as 'a handful of different modelling methods.'
  2. Figure captions or the text should state the assumed survey area, integration time per pointing, and flux limit so that the number-count predictions can be reproduced or compared with other forecasts.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their positive assessment of the manuscript and for the constructive suggestion. We address the single major comment below.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract and §3] Abstract and §3 (forecasts section): the central claim that the resulting catalogues will be 'of sufficient size' to measure BAO and RSD rests on the number-count predictions; while multiple HI mass-function models are invoked to bracket uncertainty, the manuscript should report the range (min/max or 1σ envelope) of predicted number densities and the corresponding variation in the forecasted BAO/RSD error bars in a single table or figure so that the robustness of the 'sufficient size' conclusion can be assessed directly.

    Authors: We agree that a consolidated presentation of the bracketing range would make the robustness of the 'sufficient size' claim more transparent. In the revised version we will add a new table in §3 that tabulates, at representative redshifts, the minimum and maximum predicted number densities across the set of HI mass-function models together with the corresponding min/max forecasted BAO and RSD error bars. This table will be referenced from both the abstract and the main text. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; forecasts conditional on external models

full rationale

The paper is a forecast study that computes expected galaxy number counts and cosmological observables (BAO, RSD) for future SKA-MID surveys. It explicitly flags the dominant uncertainty in the redshift evolution of the HI mass function and addresses it by bracketing results across multiple independent modelling methods drawn from prior literature. No derivation step reduces by construction to its own fitted inputs, no self-citation chain is invoked to establish uniqueness or forbid alternatives, and the central feasibility claim rests on survey specifications and standard large-scale structure observables rather than any self-referential renaming or ansatz smuggling. The work is therefore self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review; no explicit free parameters, axioms, or invented entities can be extracted from the provided text.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5726 in / 928 out tokens · 18699 ms · 2026-07-02T06:37:54.136913+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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