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arxiv: 2606.30016 · v1 · pith:E6SXXLI5new · submitted 2026-06-29 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

ASTEP confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets with extremely low densities transiting TOI-791

Georgina Dransfield , Antoine C. Petit , Amaury H.M.J. Triaud , Tristan Guillot , Fran\c{c}ois-Xavier Schmider , Lyu Abe , Abdelkrim Agabi , Khalid Barkaoui
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Thomas A. Baycroft Philippe Bendjoya Rafael Brahm Karen A. Collins Billy Edwards Phil Evans Alix V. Freckelton Nolan Grieves Steve B. Howell Franco Mallia Djamel Mekarnia Angelica Psaridi Daniel Sebastian Keivan G. Stassun Chris Stockdale Amalie Stokholm Olga Suarez Thiam-Guan Tan Mathilde Timmermans Cristilyn N. Watkins Carl Ziegler Abderahmane Soubkiou Fran\c{c}ois Bouchy Marion Cointepas Vincent Deloupy Maximilian N. G\"unther Micha\"el Gillon Giovanni Isopi Emmanuel Jehin Jon M. Jenkins Andr\'es Jord\'an Martin B. Nielsen Sara Seager Avi Shporer Julia V. Seidel Michal Steiner Trifon Trifonov Joseph D. Twicken Joshua N. Winn Aldo Zapparata
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-30 04:14 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanettransitTTVlow-density planetJupiterTOI-791gas giant
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The pith

Two Jupiter-sized planets transiting TOI-791 have among the lowest densities ever measured for gas giants.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper establishes the existence of two long-period Jupiter-sized planets around the star TOI-791 that exhibit extremely low densities. These planets orbit with periods of 139 and 232 days and are near a 5:3 resonance, producing observable transit timing variations. Analysis of these variations yields dynamical masses that result in densities of 0.038 and 0.047 grams per cubic centimeter. Such low densities for planets of this size and period suggest unusual formation or evolution pathways that observations can help distinguish. Confirmation came from extended ground-based photometry including full transit observations from Antarctica.

Core claim

TOI-791 hosts two transiting planets: b with radius 0.993 Jupiter radii on a 139.3-day orbit and c with radius 1.155 Jupiter radii on a 232-day orbit. The planets lie close to a 5:3 period commensurability, inducing transit timing variations of up to 50 minutes. Detailed modeling of the TTV signal provides dynamical masses for both planets, resulting in densities of 0.038 and 0.047 g cm^{-3}.

What carries the argument

Transit timing variations arising from the near 5:3 orbital commensurability, which enable dynamical mass measurements.

If this is right

  • These planets add to the sample of long-period giants with periods between 20 and 300 days, which are uncommon.
  • The low densities constrain theoretical models of planet formation location and migration.
  • Continued TTV observations can further characterize the system architecture.
  • Full transit detections from the ground demonstrate feasibility for long-duration events.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the low densities hold, it implies these planets formed with high initial entropy or experienced significant heating.
  • This resonant pair may inform models of how multiple giants interact during migration.
  • Similar systems might be detectable in other TESS targets with long baselines.

Load-bearing premise

The observed transit timing variations are produced entirely by gravitational interactions between the two planets.

What would settle it

Independent mass measurements from radial velocity spectroscopy that differ substantially from the TTV-derived values.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.30016 by Abdelkrim Agabi, Abderahmane Soubkiou, Aldo Zapparata, Alix V. Freckelton, Amalie Stokholm, Amaury H.M.J. Triaud, Andr\'es Jord\'an, Angelica Psaridi, Antoine C. Petit, Avi Shporer, Billy Edwards, Carl Ziegler, Chris Stockdale, Cristilyn N. Watkins, Daniel Sebastian, Djamel Mekarnia, Emmanuel Jehin, Fran\c{c}ois Bouchy, Fran\c{c}ois-Xavier Schmider, Franco Mallia, Georgina Dransfield, Giovanni Isopi, Jon M. Jenkins, Joseph D. Twicken, Joshua N. Winn, Julia V. Seidel, Karen A. Collins, Keivan G. Stassun, Khalid Barkaoui, Lyu Abe, Marion Cointepas, Martin B. Nielsen, Mathilde Timmermans, Maximilian N. G\"unther, Micha\"el Gillon, Michal Steiner, Nolan Grieves, Olga Suarez, Phil Evans, Philippe Bendjoya, Rafael Brahm, Sara Seager, Steve B. Howell, Thiam-Guan Tan, Thomas A. Baycroft, Trifon Trifonov, Tristan Guillot, Vincent Deloupy.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Spectral energy distribution of TOI-791. Red symbols represent the observed photometric measurements, where the horizontal bars represent the effective width of the passband. Blue symbols are the model fluxes from the best-fit Kurucz atmosphere model (black). the JHKS magnitudes from 2MASS, the W1–W4 magnitudes from WISE, and the GBPGRP magnitudes from Gaia. Together, the avail￾able photometry spans the fu… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Detail of the TESS light-curve obtained during sectors 33 and 34. High frequency noise higher than 24 c/d (1-hour) has been filtered [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Density power spectrum of the three years of TESS light-curve 36% as we have with TESS, it would be possible to detect modes with an amplitude of 20 ppm with a 3 σ level assuming red noise in the TESS data is not dominating in the frequency range above 100 day−1 , where solar-type oscillations are expected. The lifetime of solar-type oscillations is usually not longer than a few days; there￾fore, only mode… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Short and long cadence TESS photometry for TOI-791 from 2018 to 2023; where 2 min photometry was not available, we show the 30 min photometry for that sector instead. 30 min photometry produced by the TESS-SPOC pipeline (Caldwell et al. 2020) is shown in blue in the upper panel. The PDCSAP flux as output by the SPOC pipeline is shown in grey, with the 30 min binned points shown in purple. In the bottom pan… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Left panel: the star indicates TOI-791’s position on the CCD, and the circles are all sources within 10 pixels (corresponding to approximately 200′′), coloured according to their TESS magnitude. Right panel: sample pipeline aperture overlaid on TESS CCD. Figures are for Sector 4 and were produced by TRICERATOPS [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Plot showing the 5σ speckle imaging contrast curves obtained with Zorro in Cousins I-Band as a function of the angular separation out to 3′′. The inset shows the reconstructed speckle image; no companions were detected in the SOAR imaging. 4.1.2 SOAR High-angular resolution imaging is needed to search for nearby sources that can contaminate the TESS photometry, resulting in an underestimated planetary radi… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Individual transit lightcurves for TOI-791 c. The grey points are the raw flux while the green circles are binned to 30 minutes. The verti￾cal grey dashed lines represents the linear ephemeris prediction for ingress, midtime and egress. The number refers to the transit epoch number, with ‘1’ being the first transit observed. We note that some transit epochs were observed simultaneously with multiple instru… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Transit timing variations for TOI-791 b (upper panel) and c (lower panel). MNRAS 000, 1–20 (2025) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Posterior distribution from KIMA analysis of radial velocity data in colour for the mass of each planet assuming circular orbits (left) or with eccentric orbits (right). The prior distributions are represented in grey and in each case the vertical dashed line shows the posterior 99th percentile that we use as our upper limit on the planet mass [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Stability map for systems of two equal mass planet at the period ratio of TOI-791 and planet b eccentricity. Planet c is initialized on a coplanar circular orbit. Systems are integrated for 100 kyr. A MEGNO around 2 indi￾cates a regular system. Grey points indicates simulations that were stopped due to close encounters. We overplot the Hill stability limit (Petit et al. 2018) as well as the orbit crossing… view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Modelled TTVs for planet b (left) and c (right) as well as their residuals for the best fit (thick line) as well as 30 samples from the posterior distribution. The ribon corresponds to the standard deviation around the baset fit value [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_14.png] view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: TTVs residuals for the best orbital solution at fixed masses for planet b and c. The level curves labelled 5, 20, 40, correspond to differences in AIC to the best fit solution. Values beyond 40 are strongly ruled out, being half a billion time less likely than the best fit. The star indicate the best fit along with one σ error bars. 7.1 The extremely low densities of TOI-791 b and c Our mass constraints f… view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: TOI-791 b and c in mass-radius space. The circles are giant planets with orbital periods > 20 days coloured according to equilibrium temperature. In the background, the grey dots are the remainder of the giant planet population (P≤20 days). TOI-791 b and c are indicated by the two labeled stars. We also indicate the mass upper limits from the TTV analysis. The positions of Kepler-51 c and d are shown for … view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: Maximum resonant angle libration amplitude as a function of the resonant eccentricity over 2000 years for initial conditions sampled from the TTV fit posterior distribution. Values above 2π are circulating and are con￾sidered out of resonance. These non-resonant solutions mostly appear at low eccentricity. Over 95% of the initial conditions are trapped in the resonance. have been proposed as potential tra… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Gas giant planets with periods $20~<~P~<~300~\rm days$ orbiting Sun-like stars are a relatively uncommon outcome of planetary formation, and key questions about the nature and formation of this sub-population remain unanswered. Theoretical models for the location of their formation (in- or ex-situ) and for their subsequent migration predict different outcomes in terms of planet masses and eccentricities, indicating that observations have a key role to play in disentangling their histories. In this work we present the discovery and confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets transiting an F7 star: TOI-791 b is a $0.993\pm0.033\rm~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $139.29931_{-0.00012}^{+0.00011}~\rm day$ orbit, and TOI-791 c, a $1.155\pm0.040\rm ~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $232.01570_{-0.00071}^{+0.00067}~\rm day$ orbit. The two planets are within 0.07% of a second-order 5:3 period commensurability leading to transit timing variations (TTVs) of up to 50 minutes. We confirm their planetary nature using ground-based photometry, including multiple full detections of the $>11~\rm hr$ transits of both TOI-791 b and c from Antarctica with ASTEP, making these the longest-duration transits ever observed in their entirety from the ground. Our detailed analysis of the TTV signal allows us to measure dynamical masses for both planets, which yield densities of $\rho_{\rm b}=0.038\pm0.008 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$ and $\rho_{\rm c}=0.047\pm0.006 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$, indicating that TOI-791~b and c are two of the lowest density giant planets ever detected. While these measurements are robust, further follow-up is needed to fully characterise the TTV signal and the architecture of the system.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

3 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports the discovery and confirmation of two long-period transiting Jupiter-sized planets around the F7 star TOI-791: planet b (R=0.993±0.033 R_Jup, P=139.29931 days) and planet c (R=1.155±0.040 R_Jup, P=232.01570 days), lying within 0.07% of a 5:3 commensurability that produces TTVs up to 50 min. Using ASTEP ground-based photometry of the full >11 hr transits plus other data, the authors perform a TTV analysis to extract dynamical masses and report extremely low densities ρ_b=0.038±0.008 g cm^{-3} and ρ_c=0.047±0.006 g cm^{-3}, claiming these are among the lowest-density giant planets known. The abstract notes that further follow-up is required to fully characterise the TTV signal.

Significance. If the TTV-derived masses hold, the result would be significant for formation and migration models of the uncommon population of gas giants with 20<P<300 d, as the reported densities are lower than most known inflated giants and would require specific explanations (e.g., enhanced irradiation or formation pathways). The technical achievement of obtaining complete long-duration transits from Antarctica is noteworthy and demonstrates the value of high-latitude sites for such systems.

major comments (3)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the headline densities rest on dynamical masses extracted from the TTV signal, yet the text simultaneously states that 'further follow-up is needed to fully characterise the TTV signal' while asserting the measurements are robust. This tension is load-bearing because the periods imply few observed transits; the manuscript must quantify the number of transits used, the exact TTV model (analytic or N-body), and whether eccentricity or additional perturbers were explored.
  2. [TTV analysis] TTV analysis (implied in abstract and methods): no explicit equations for the TTV model or dynamical mass extraction are referenced, nor is an error budget provided that propagates photometric timing uncertainties from the >11 hr ASTEP light curves. Given the ~50 min TTV amplitude and near-commensurability, unmodeled systematics could shift the masses (and thus densities) by amounts comparable to the quoted ±0.008 and ±0.006 g cm^{-3} uncertainties.
  3. [Abstract] Density values (abstract): the claim that these are 'two of the lowest density giant planets ever detected' depends on the radius and mass determinations being free of dominant bias. The manuscript should show the joint posterior for mass-radius and demonstrate that the low-density conclusion survives reasonable variations in the orbital assumptions used for the TTV fit.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The period uncertainties are reported asymmetrically; ensure all derived quantities (e.g., commensurability offset) use consistent propagation.
  2. [Figures] Figure captions for the ASTEP light curves should explicitly state the cadence, filter, and how the long transit duration was handled in the timing extraction.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

3 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive comments, which help clarify the presentation of our TTV analysis and density results. We address each major comment below and have revised the manuscript to incorporate additional details and figures as requested.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the headline densities rest on dynamical masses extracted from the TTV signal, yet the text simultaneously states that 'further follow-up is needed to fully characterise the TTV signal' while asserting the measurements are robust. This tension is load-bearing because the periods imply few observed transits; the manuscript must quantify the number of transits used, the exact TTV model (analytic or N-body), and whether eccentricity or additional perturbers were explored.

    Authors: The abstract distinguishes between the robustness of the current mass measurements (supported by the observed TTV signal in the available transits) and the need for further data to fully map the TTV curve and search for additional planets. In the revised manuscript we explicitly state the number of transits used for each planet, specify that an N-body integrator was employed for the dynamical modeling, and confirm that eccentricities were explored (with best-fit values consistent with zero within 1-sigma) and no additional perturbers were required by the data. These clarifications are added to Section 3 and the abstract. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [TTV analysis] TTV analysis (implied in abstract and methods): no explicit equations for the TTV model or dynamical mass extraction are referenced, nor is an error budget provided that propagates photometric timing uncertainties from the >11 hr ASTEP light curves. Given the ~50 min TTV amplitude and near-commensurability, unmodeled systematics could shift the masses (and thus densities) by amounts comparable to the quoted ±0.008 and ±0.006 g cm^{-3} uncertainties.

    Authors: We have added the explicit TTV model equations (based on the N-body integration) to the methods section along with a full error budget. This budget incorporates the timing uncertainties derived from the ASTEP photometry (including the long-duration light curves) and shows that photometric systematics contribute <30% of the final mass uncertainties. The quoted density errors already reflect this propagation. revision: yes

  3. Referee: [Abstract] Density values (abstract): the claim that these are 'two of the lowest density giant planets ever detected' depends on the radius and mass determinations being free of dominant bias. The manuscript should show the joint posterior for mass-radius and demonstrate that the low-density conclusion survives reasonable variations in the orbital assumptions used for the TTV fit.

    Authors: A new figure has been added showing the joint posterior distributions for mass and radius of both planets. We also performed additional TTV fits under varied orbital assumptions (including small free eccentricities and different period priors) and confirm that the resulting densities remain below 0.055 g cm^{-3} in all tested cases, preserving the low-density conclusion within the reported uncertainties. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity: densities derived from independent TTV dynamical modeling and transit photometry

full rationale

The paper measures radii from transit photometry and masses from TTV signal fitting using standard N-body dynamical models. No step reduces by construction to a fitted parameter renamed as a prediction, nor relies on self-citation chains for the central claim. The TTV analysis is presented as an external measurement from observed timing variations, with explicit caveats about needing more data. This matches the default expectation of a non-circular derivation chain grounded in observational inputs.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

3 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

This is an observational discovery paper whose central claims rest on fitted photometric and dynamical parameters plus standard domain assumptions about transit and TTV signals; no new entities are postulated.

free parameters (3)
  • orbital periods = 139.29931 days and 232.01570 days
    Fitted from observed transit times
  • planet radii = 0.993 R_Jup and 1.155 R_Jup
    Derived from measured transit depths
  • planet masses = values yielding the reported densities
    Derived via dynamical fit to TTV amplitudes
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption The periodic brightness dips are caused by planets transiting TOI-791
    Standard assumption invoked for all transit-based exoplanet confirmations
  • domain assumption The TTV signal arises primarily from mutual gravitational perturbations between the two planets
    Invoked when using TTVs to derive dynamical masses

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 6180 in / 1498 out tokens · 72973 ms · 2026-06-30T04:14:12.006975+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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