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arxiv: 2606.26011 · v1 · pith:FEK2SU43new · submitted 2026-06-24 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO

Cosmology from Synergies Between SKAO Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observations

Tessa Baker , Alberto Colombo , Steven Cunnington , Ulyana Dupletsa , Jos\'e Fonseca , Ian Harrison , Konstantin Leyde , Simone Mastrogiovanni
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Riccardo Murgia Dounia Nanadoumgar-Lacroze Tommaso Ronconi Giulio Scelfo Matteo Schulz Marta Spinelli
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-25 19:32 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO
keywords cosmologygravitational wavesstandard sirensSKAOHI intensity mappingexpansion historyHubble constantradio surveys
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The pith

SKA radio surveys can supply redshifts to gravitational wave standard sirens, constraining the cosmic expansion history H(z) and H0.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper shows that SKA-Mid neutral hydrogen intensity maps, HI galaxy redshift surveys, and continuum galaxy surveys can link luminosity distances from gravitational wave events to redshifts. This supplies the missing redshift information for standard sirens and thereby constrains the expansion rate at high redshifts. Radio tracers cover large volumes and reach higher redshifts than many optical surveys, with systematics independent of existing probes. The approach works by cross-matching radio large-scale structure signals to GW sources. A reader would care because it offers a new route to measuring H0 and testing the expansion history without relying solely on electromagnetic distance ladders.

Core claim

By using SKA-Mid HI intensity maps, HI galaxy redshift surveys, and continuum galaxy surveys as electromagnetic tracers of large-scale structure, redshifts can be assigned to gravitational wave standard sirens. This linkage converts luminosity distances into a measurement of the expansion history H(z) and provides constraints on the Hubble constant H0, with radio surveys offering unique high-redshift and large-volume coverage compared to contemporaneous optical surveys.

What carries the argument

Radio large-scale structure tracers (HI intensity maps, HI galaxy surveys, continuum surveys) matched to GW events to furnish redshifts for standard sirens.

If this is right

  • Direct constraints on H(z) over a wide redshift range using GW luminosity distances.
  • Improved determination of H0 through the radio-GW combination.
  • Complementary high-redshift information that augments optical survey coverage.
  • Cosmological constraints with systematics independent of traditional electromagnetic probes.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The method could be tested on existing GW catalogs by searching for spatial correlations with SKA precursor survey fields.
  • If successful, the same matching technique might extend to future GW detectors and other radio facilities for even higher-redshift reach.
  • Cross-checks against baryon acoustic oscillation measurements at overlapping redshifts would strengthen the case for the approach.

Load-bearing premise

Radio tracers from SKAO can be matched to GW sources to provide accurate, unbiased redshifts without significant selection effects or contamination.

What would settle it

Detection of large systematic offsets between the H(z) derived from matched radio-GW pairs and independent measurements from other probes, or failure to find sufficient clean matches in overlapping sky areas.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.26011 by Alberto Colombo, Dounia Nanadoumgar-Lacroze, Giulio Scelfo, Ian Harrison, Jos\'e Fonseca, Konstantin Leyde, Marta Spinelli, Matteo Schulz, Riccardo Murgia, Simone Mastrogiovanni, Steven Cunnington, Tessa Baker, Tommaso Ronconi, Ulyana Dupletsa.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Horizon plots (magenta lines) for current and future GW observations compared to the SKAO reach in redshift. The horizon represents the maximum redshift for CBC equal-mass and optimally oriented GW sources observed with a SNR threshold of 8. On the x-axis is the total source-frame mass of the binary, while on y-axis is the redshift of the merger. The different line styles refer to different detectors’ netw… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Corner plots of the cosmological constraints obtained from GW bright sirens (blue), Pantheon + SNe (pink), and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) BAO (orange) for the ΛCDM model (top left), the 𝑤CDM model (top right), and the 𝑤0𝑤𝑎CDM model (bottom). For each model we show the one–dimensional marginal distributions and the two–dimensional posterior contours for the relevant cosmo￾logical parameters… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Summary plot of LVK 𝐻0 measurements (Abbott et al., 2017a, 2021, 2023, 2025) in chronological order. The reported values show the median and the corresponding 68% symmetric credible interval. We summarize the methods employed for the measurements with different colors: yellow for bright sirens and either magenta (spectral) or purple (catalog) for the dark sirens. When more than one method is employed the c… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Pixelated sky map for a mock GW event with 90% sky area 𝐴 90% 𝑠𝑘 𝑦 = 94deg2 . real data analysis, where additional parameters will need to be included in the model. The required refinements can in principle concern both our assumptions on the physical relation between the presence of Hi and GW events and also the effect that realistic systematics can have in "masking" the real Hi distribution. Such systema… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Line-of-sight redshift prior for a single pixel with nside= 128 in the GRIDIMP intensity maps. We compare the redshift prior from a fluctuating Hi field with that of a uniform Hi field. • P(Ω𝑖 |𝑧𝑗) is the probability that a pixel with coordinates (Ω𝑖 , 𝑧𝑗) hosts a compact binary merger. It is directly computed from the Hi density fluctuations as given by the Hi intensity map. • P(𝑧𝑗) is the probability tha… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Illustrative example of 500 GW events (yellow stars) on Hi number density map at 𝑧 ∼ 0.4 as from the Dark Energy and Massive Neutrino Universe (DEMNUni) N-body simulation. The work in Dupletsa et al. (2026) uses density maps. The starting point is the simulation of the DM distribution at different redshift bins. Given that SKA-Mid frequency coverage will allow tomography of the 21 cm line of Hi up to 𝑧 ∼ 3… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Reconstruction of the 𝐻0 posterior using the N-body simulations and modified icarogw code (as described in the pipeline presented in Dupletsa et al. (2026) with ∼ 3000 GW events with an SNR greater than 150. We present the results using the N-body Hi maps from the DEMNUni simulation to model the GW rate, in magenta, and results from assuming a sky-averaged distribution of Hi, in purple. performing an ident… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: H0 posterior distribution marginalised over cosmological and population parameters obtained using the pipeline with log-Normal simulations presented in (Nanadoumgar-Lacroze et al., n.d., in preparation). We show preliminary results using icarogw with ∼ 160 O5-like GW events and compare the constraint on 𝐻0 achieved with and without using the corresponding SKA-Mid-like HI temperature map. For this analysis,… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Summary results from Scelfo et al. (2022), assuming 𝑓sky = 0.5. (i) Left panel: constraints (absolute error bars) on the statistical z-distribution 𝑑𝑁GW/𝑑𝑧 of resolved BBHs merger events, without any assumption on the underlying cosmology or astrophysical models. Assuming 𝑇 GW obs = 15yr. (ii) Center panel: 1𝜎 − 2𝜎 Fisher contours on dark energy parameters {𝑤0, 𝑤𝑎}, either with and without a Planck prior o… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Both radio surveys and gravitational wave observations have the potential to probe unprecedented volumes in the Universe with systematics independent of existing cosmological probes. This gives them the potential, especially in combination, to solve some of the outstanding issues in cosmology. Here we show how the use of radio observations as electromagnetic signals tracing large scale structures can be used to provide information on gravitational wave \textit{standard sirens}. By providing a way to link luminosity distance to redshift, this combination can constrain the expansion history of the Universe, and provide information on the Hubble constant ($H_0$). We describe the utility of SKA-Mid neutral hydrogen (\hi) intensity maps, \hi\ galaxy redshift surveys, and continuum galaxy surveys compared to and in conjunction with large contemporaneous optical surveys. Such radio tracers provide a unique, large volume and high redshift information for gravitational wave source, capable of probing effectively the expansion history of the Universe $H(z)$.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 0 minor

Summary. The manuscript claims that SKA-Mid neutral hydrogen intensity maps, HI galaxy redshift surveys, and continuum galaxy surveys can supply redshift information for gravitational wave standard sirens. By linking luminosity distance to redshift, this synergy is said to constrain the expansion history H(z) and H0, offering unique advantages in volume and redshift reach compared to contemporaneous optical surveys.

Significance. If a reliable, unbiased association between radio tracers and GW events can be demonstrated, the approach would add an independent multi-messenger route to H(z) and H0, potentially helping address the Hubble tension with systematics orthogonal to optical and CMB probes. The emphasis on radio-specific large-volume coverage at high redshift is a conceptual strength.

major comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the central claim that radio tracers 'provide a way to link luminosity distance to redshift' and thereby constrain H(z) rests on the viability of cross-matching without significant selection effects or contamination, yet no modeling, simulation results, or error budgets for this step are supplied.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive feedback. We address the single major comment below and indicate where revisions will be made to the manuscript.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the central claim that radio tracers 'provide a way to link luminosity distance to redshift' and thereby constrain H(z) rests on the viability of cross-matching without significant selection effects or contamination, yet no modeling, simulation results, or error budgets for this step are supplied.

    Authors: We agree that the viability of cross-matching between radio tracers and GW events is a central assumption underlying the proposed synergy, and that the manuscript does not supply explicit modeling, simulations, or quantitative error budgets for selection effects or contamination. The paper is framed as a conceptual exploration of the unique volume and redshift reach offered by SKA-Mid HI intensity mapping, HI galaxy surveys, and continuum surveys relative to optical counterparts. In the revised manuscript we will add a dedicated subsection (in the methods or discussion) that qualitatively discusses the challenges of reliable association, cites existing multi-messenger cross-identification studies, and outlines the main sources of potential bias. We will also revise the abstract to clarify that the work presents a proposed route whose practical implementation requires further detailed validation. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity detected

full rationale

The paper advances a conceptual proposal that SKAO radio tracers (HI intensity maps, galaxy surveys, continuum surveys) can supply redshifts for GW standard sirens, thereby linking luminosity distance to redshift and constraining H(z) and H0. No equations, fitted parameters, or derivation steps appear in the abstract or described content. The central claim rests on the viability of cross-matching methods rather than any self-referential construction, self-citation chain, or renaming of known results. This constitutes a self-contained methods-oriented discussion with no load-bearing step that reduces to its own inputs by construction.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review provides no information on free parameters, axioms, or invented entities.

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