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FairPFN: Transformers Can do Counterfactual Fairness
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Machine Learning systems are increasingly prevalent across healthcare, law enforcement, and finance but often operate on historical data, which may carry biases against certain demographic groups. Causal and counterfactual fairness provides an intuitive way to define fairness that closely aligns with legal standards. Despite its theoretical benefits, counterfactual fairness comes with several practical limitations, largely related to the reliance on domain knowledge and approximate causal discovery techniques in constructing a causal model. In this study, we take a fresh perspective on counterfactually fair prediction, building upon recent work in in context learning (ICL) and prior fitted networks (PFNs) to learn a transformer called FairPFN. This model is pretrained using synthetic fairness data to eliminate the causal effects of protected attributes directly from observational data, removing the requirement of access to the correct causal model in practice. In our experiments, we thoroughly assess the effectiveness of FairPFN in eliminating the causal impact of protected attributes on a series of synthetic case studies and real world datasets. Our findings pave the way for a new and promising research area: transformers for causal and counterfactual fairness.
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Position: The Future of Bayesian Prediction Is Prior-Fitted
PFNs, which amortize Bayesian inference by training on datasets sampled from a prior, are likely to supersede MCMC and variational inference for most prediction tasks, the authors argue.
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