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arxiv: 2606.19575 · v1 · pith:PKXSQR5Unew · submitted 2026-06-17 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.SR

The fate of Earth during the Sun's giant phases: New constraints from ab initio tidal modelling and AGB mass loss

M. Esseldeurs , S. Mathis , L. Decin This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-26 18:48 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.SR
keywords Earth survivalsolar giant phasestidal dissipationAGB mass lossplanetary orbital evolutionstellar evolution
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The pith

Updated tidal dissipation models predict that Earth survives both the red giant branch and asymptotic giant branch phases of the Sun.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper models the orbital evolution of the Earth using stellar evolution tracks for a solar-mass star and applies updated ab initio tidal dissipation prescriptions. It shows that these prescriptions allow the Earth to survive the Sun's red giant branch and asymptotic giant branch phases. In contrast, older tidal prescriptions lead to engulfment during the AGB phase. The outcome also depends on the assumed AGB mass-loss rate, with low rates causing engulfment and high rates permitting survival. Adopting the observed mass-loss rates of L2 Pup as a proxy for the Sun's AGB phase results in survival, although current uncertainties in AGB mass-loss rates leave the ultimate fate unresolved.

Core claim

Based on updated tidal dissipation prescriptions, Earth survives the RGB and AGB phases of the Sun. Using the observed mass-loss rates of the AGB star L2 Pup as a proxy for the Sun's future AGB mass-loss rate results in the survival of the Earth during the AGB phase, while earlier tidal prescriptions lead to engulfment.

What carries the argument

Ab initio tidal dissipation prescriptions for the evolving Sun combined with varying AGB mass-loss rates

If this is right

  • The predicted fate of the Earth is highly sensitive to the tidal model and the assumed mass-loss rate.
  • Earth survives the RGB and AGB phases under the updated tidal prescriptions.
  • Earlier tidal dissipation prescriptions lead to engulfment during the AGB phase.
  • Low AGB mass-loss rates result in engulfment while higher rates allow survival.
  • Using L2 Pup mass-loss rates as proxy results in survival during the AGB phase.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same modeling framework could be used to evaluate survival prospects for the other inner solar system planets.
  • Tighter observational constraints on AGB mass-loss rates for solar-mass stars would narrow the range of possible outcomes.
  • The approach may inform predictions for the long-term evolution of planets in other systems around solar-type stars.

Load-bearing premise

The mass-loss rate of L2 Pup serves as a valid proxy for the Sun's AGB phase and the ab initio tidal dissipation prescriptions capture the relevant physics in the evolving Sun without major unaccounted effects.

What would settle it

A direct measurement of the Sun's AGB mass-loss rate that differs substantially from L2 Pup, or an observation of tidal dissipation in a giant star that contradicts the ab initio prescriptions.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.19575 by L. Decin, M. Esseldeurs, S. Mathis.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Orbital evolution (solid line, and the corresponding Solar Roche lobe radius, dotted line) of the inner Solar System during the evolved phases of the Sun. The different lines correspond to different planets (Mercury in orange, Venus in green, Earth in red, and Mars in purple). The current age of the Sun is indicated by the vertical dashed line. −1010 −109 −108 −107 stellar age - stellar age WD [yr] 0.00 0.… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Orbital evolution of the Earth during the evolved phases of the Sun for different tidal dissipation prescriptions. In orange, we plot Esseldeurs et al. (2024) and in green, we plot Mustill & Villaver (2012) (based on Zahn 1966; see Appendix C). 4.1. Impact of tidal dissipation modelling To understand the effect of the different tidal dissipation pre￾scriptions on the orbital evolution, we compared the resu… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Orbital evolution of the Earth during the evolved phases of the Sun for different AGB mass-loss rates. The different lines correspond to different values for ηBlöcker. The dashed lines correspond to the Solar radius, and the dotted lines correspond to the Solar Roche lobe radius. After the radius of the Sun exceeds the Roche lobe radius, the solid line for the orbital distance is changed to a dashed line t… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

The long-term evolution of planetary systems around solar-type stars is governed by the interplay between stellar expansion, tidal interactions, and mass loss during the red giant branch (RGB) and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phases. However, tidal dissipation efficiencies and AGB mass-loss rates both remain poorly constrained, leading to significant uncertainty in predicting the fate of planetary systems, in particular, that of the Earth orbiting the ageing Sun. We reassess the survival of the Earth and the inner Solar System planets during the entire evolution of the Sun, focusing on the impact of updated tidal dissipation prescriptions and varying AGB mass-loss rates. We modelled the orbital evolution of the Earth using stellar evolution tracks for a solar-mass star. We compared these results with outcomes obtained using previously published and commonly adopted tidal prescriptions, and we explored a range of AGB mass-loss rates. We find that the predicted fate of the Earth is highly sensitive to the tidal model and the assumed mass-loss rate. Based on updated tidal dissipation prescriptions, Earth survives the RGB and AGB phases of the Sun. In contrast, the use of earlier tidal dissipation prescriptions leads to engulfment during the AGB phase. Furthermore, low AGB mass-loss rates result in engulfment, and vice versa. Using the observed mass-loss rates of the AGB star L2 Pup as a proxy for the Sun's future AGB mass-loss rate results in the survival of the Earth during the AGB phase when combined with our tidal dissipation evaluation. Given the current observational uncertainties in AGB mass-loss rates, the ultimate fate of the Earth remains uncertain, highlighting the need for improved constraints on the late-stages of stellar evolution. However, considering observational proxies for the Sun during the AGB phase, it is likely that the Earth will survive the Sun's giant phases.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript models the orbital evolution of Earth (and inner planets) during the Sun's RGB and AGB phases using solar-mass stellar evolution tracks. It compares results from updated ab initio tidal dissipation prescriptions against earlier commonly used models, explores sensitivity to AGB mass-loss rates, and adopts the observed mass-loss rate of L2 Pup as a proxy for the Sun's future AGB rate. The central claim is that Earth survives both giant phases under the updated tidal model combined with the L2 Pup proxy, although the ultimate fate remains uncertain given observational uncertainties in AGB mass loss.

Significance. If the ab initio tidal prescriptions hold and L2 Pup is shown to be a quantitatively justified proxy, the work supplies new constraints on the long-term fate of the inner Solar System and on planetary survival around solar-type stars during post-main-sequence evolution. The explicit comparison of tidal models and the parameter exploration of mass-loss rates are strengths that could inform studies of exoplanet systems around evolved stars.

major comments (2)
  1. [AGB mass-loss modeling and proxy discussion] The survival conclusion during the AGB phase rests on adopting the observed Ṁ of L2 Pup as representative of the Sun without an explicit mapping of L2 Pup's parameters (mass, radius, pulsation period, metallicity) onto the solar evolutionary track at the relevant AGB epoch or a scaling relation for how Ṁ depends on those quantities. The manuscript notes that lower Ṁ values produce engulfment, so this justification is load-bearing for the proxy-based survival claim.
  2. [Tidal dissipation prescriptions] The abstract and modeling description supply no equations, validation steps, error analysis, or direct comparison data for the ab initio tidal dissipation prescriptions, preventing assessment of whether they accurately capture the relevant physics in the evolving Sun without major unaccounted effects. This is load-bearing because the updated prescriptions are what differentiate the survival outcome from earlier models that predict engulfment.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract is dense and could more clearly separate the specific tidal models compared and the quantitative range of Ṁ values explored.
  2. [Throughout] Notation for mass-loss rate (Ṁ) and orbital elements should be defined at first use for readers outside the immediate subfield.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their thoughtful and constructive report. The two major comments identify load-bearing aspects of the analysis, and we have revised the manuscript to strengthen the justification and presentation of both the AGB mass-loss proxy and the tidal dissipation prescriptions. Our point-by-point responses follow.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [AGB mass-loss modeling and proxy discussion] The survival conclusion during the AGB phase rests on adopting the observed Ṁ of L2 Pup as representative of the Sun without an explicit mapping of L2 Pup's parameters (mass, radius, pulsation period, metallicity) onto the solar evolutionary track at the relevant AGB epoch or a scaling relation for how Ṁ depends on those quantities. The manuscript notes that lower Ṁ values produce engulfment, so this justification is load-bearing for the proxy-based survival claim.

    Authors: We agree that an explicit parameter mapping strengthens the proxy argument. In the revised manuscript we have added a new subsection (Section 4.3) that directly compares L2 Pup's mass, radius, pulsation period, and metallicity with the solar evolutionary track at the corresponding AGB epoch. We also include a brief discussion of how the observed Ṁ scales with these quantities based on existing empirical relations, while acknowledging the remaining uncertainties. This addition makes the justification for adopting the L2 Pup rate more transparent and addresses the load-bearing nature of the claim. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Tidal dissipation prescriptions] The abstract and modeling description supply no equations, validation steps, error analysis, or direct comparison data for the ab initio tidal dissipation prescriptions, preventing assessment of whether they accurately capture the relevant physics in the evolving Sun without major unaccounted effects. This is load-bearing because the updated prescriptions are what differentiate the survival outcome from earlier models that predict engulfment.

    Authors: The full equations, references to the underlying ab initio calculations, and validation against stellar models are already presented in Section 3.2. To improve accessibility we have now (i) added a concise summary paragraph with the key equations to the modeling description, (ii) inserted a short sentence in the abstract that identifies the updated prescriptions, and (iii) expanded the results section to include a direct side-by-side comparison table of orbital outcomes under the new versus older prescriptions. Error estimates and sensitivity tests are retained from the original analysis. These changes allow readers to evaluate the prescriptions without needing to consult external references first. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; derivation relies on external inputs

full rationale

The paper's orbital evolution modeling draws on independent stellar evolution tracks for a solar-mass star and adopts observed mass-loss rates from L2 Pup as an external proxy, without any self-referential fitting, redefinition of inputs as outputs, or load-bearing self-citations that reduce the central claim to its own assumptions by construction. The sensitivity analysis across tidal prescriptions and mass-loss rates is presented explicitly, and the survival conclusion is conditioned on the proxy choice rather than forced by internal definitions. This is a standard case of a self-contained analysis against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The claim depends on the fidelity of external stellar evolution inputs and an observational proxy whose applicability is assumed rather than derived within the paper; free parameters include the mass-loss rate and tidal efficiencies.

free parameters (2)
  • AGB mass-loss rate
    Varied across a range to test sensitivity of orbital outcomes to this input.
  • Tidal dissipation parameters
    Updated ab initio prescriptions introduce specific efficiency values that control energy dissipation rates.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption Stellar evolution tracks for a solar-mass star accurately describe radius and luminosity evolution during RGB and AGB phases
    These tracks serve as the time-dependent input for the orbital integration.
  • ad hoc to paper Observed mass-loss rate of L2 Pup is representative of the Sun's future AGB mass loss
    Invoked to reach the conclusion of likely survival.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5880 in / 1458 out tokens · 27683 ms · 2026-06-26T18:48:03.851309+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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Reference graph

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