Not yet reviewed by Pith; the record is open.

The ongoing experimental efforts to measure the hyperfine transition in muonic hydrogen prompt an accurate evaluation of the proton-structure effects. At the leading order in $\alpha$, which is $O(\alpha^5)$ in the hyperfine splitting (hfs), these effects are usually evaluated in a data-driven fashion, using the empirical information on the proton electromagnetic form factors and spin structure functions. Here we perform a first calculation based on the baryon chiral perturbation theory (B$\chi$PT). At leading orders it provides a prediction for the proton polarizability effects in hydrogen (H) and muonic hydrogen ($\mu$H). We find large cancellations among the various contributions leading to, within the uncertainties, a zero polarizability effect at leading order in the B$\chi$PT expansion. This result is in significant disagreement with the current data-driven evaluations. The small polarizability effect implies a smaller Zemach radius $R_\mathrm{Z}$, if one uses the well-known experimental $1S$ hfs in H or the $2S$ hfs in $\mu$H. We, respectively, obtain $R_\mathrm{Z}(\mathrm{H}) = 1.010(9)$ fm, $R_\mathrm{Z}(\mu\mathrm{H}) = 1.040(33)$ fm. The total proton-structure effect to the hfs at $O(\alpha^5)$ is then consistent with previous evaluations; the discrepancy in the polarizability is compensated by the smaller Zemach radius. Our recommended value for the $1S$ hfs in $\mu\text{H}$ is $182.640(18)\,\mathrm{meV}.$