REVIEW
Final Results from the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project to Measure the Hubble Constant
Astrophysics · Submitted 18 Dec 2000 · 15 references
Pith's verdict: The canonical H0 = 72 ± 8 result, well supported and unusually candid about its systematics — but the Type Ia calibrator list in §6.1 contradicts Tables 1 and 2 and cannot be reproduced as written.
T0 · AI review
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Referee report
The paper
The paper claims
The Hubble Space Telescope Key Project concludes that the universe expands at about 72 km/s/Mpc, with a total uncertainty of roughly 8 km/s/Mpc, after recalibrating Cepheid distances and five secondary distance indicators.
The reading
What carries the argument
The load-bearing device is the Cepheid period-luminosity relation used as an absolute calibrator: the LMC sets the zero point, the Udalski et al. slopes set the period dependence, and a reddening-free Wesenheit combination $W = V - R(V-I)$ turns $V$ and $I$ photometry into a true distance modulus. The authors then correct that modulus for metallicity and for magnitude-limited bias at short periods, and tie the HST WFPC2 photometry to a revised zero point. Each secondary method is calibrated with a subset of these Cepheid distances, so the same zero-point error propagates coherently through all five $H_0$ values; that coherence is why method-to-method agreement cannot by itself validate the absolute scale.
Extended reading notes
Core claim
The central claim is that a single, internally consistent Cepheid calibration yields $H_0 = 72 pm 8$ km/s/Mpc across five secondary distance indicators. The individual values are $71 pm 2 pm 6$ for Type Ia supernovae, $71 pm 3 pm 7$ for Tully-Fisher, $70 pm 5 pm 6$ for surface brightness fluctuations, $72 pm 9 pm 7$ for Type II supernovae, and $82 pm 6 pm 9$ for the fundamental plane. Four methods cluster at 70-72 km/s/Mpc; the fundamental plane is the outlier but carries low weight because it is calibrated by only three clusters. Combining the five with frequentist, Bayesian, and Monte Carlo weighting gives $72 pm 3$ random $pm 7$ systematic, and the revised calibration also brings the Cepheid distance to NGC 4258 closer to its maser distance.
Load-bearing premise
The whole ladder rests on the adopted Large Magellanic Cloud distance modulus of $18.50 pm 0.10$ mag, an external zero point that multiplies every Cepheid distance and every secondary-method $H_0$; the paper notes that 18.3 mag would raise $H_0$ to about 79 km/s/Mpc.
Editorial extensions
If this is right
- For a flat universe with $\Omega_m = 0.3$ and $\Omega_\Lambda = 0.7$, $H_0 = 72$ gives an expansion age near 13 Gyr, consistent with revised globular-cluster ages and favoring a cosmological constant.
- The Einstein-de Sitter case ($\Omega_m = 1$, $\Omega_\Lambda = 0$) would give only about 9 Gyr at this $H_0$, in tension with the oldest stars.
- The long-standing spread among $H_0$ measurements is reduced to a 10% error budget, with the remaining spread dominated by shared systematics rather than by the secondary methods.
- The Cepheid-calibrated distances provide a common zero point for Type Ia supernovae, Tully-Fisher, surface brightness fluctuations, and the fundamental plane, so future distance indicators can be placed on the same scale.
- The revised Cepheid distance to NGC 4258 agrees with its maser distance within about $1.2\sigma$, an external check on the ladder.
Reading between the lines
- Because all five methods inherit the same LMC zero point, a future geometric LMC distance that shifts the modulus by 0.1 mag would move every $H_0$ value coherently; the observed method-to-method scatter therefore cannot reveal that error.
- The fundamental plane's 82 km/s/Mpc value is the one place where the calibration sample is thin, at three clusters; a larger Cepheid-calibrated cluster sample would test whether that outlier is a real astrophysical difference or a small-number calibration error.
- Unresolved blending is assigned a $+5/-0$% uncertainty rather than a correction; if blending is stronger in the most distant Cepheid hosts, the ladder could be biased toward low $H_0$ at exactly the distances where the secondary methods are calibrated.
- An independent geometric distance to a galaxy hosting both Cepheids and a Type Ia supernova would break the degeneracy between the LMC zero point and the supernova absolute magnitude, which is the tightest current route to a percent-level $H_0$.
Original abstract
We present here the final results of the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project to measure the Hubble constant. We summarize our method, the results and the uncertainties, tabulate our revised distances, and give the implications of these results for cosmology. The analysis presented here benefits from a number of recent improvements and refinements, including (1) a larger LMC Cepheid sample to define the fiducial period-luminosity (PL) relations, (2) a more recent HST Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) photometric calibration, (3) a correction for Cepheid metallicity, and (4) a correction for incompleteness bias in the observed Cepheid PL samples. New, revised distances are given for the 18 spiral galaxies for which Cepheids have been discovered as part of the Key Project, as well as for 13 additional galaxies with published Cepheid data. The new calibration results in a Cepheid distance to NGC 4258 in better agreement with the maser distance to this galaxy. Based on these revised Cepheid distances, we find values (in km/sec/Mpc) of H0 = 71 +/- 2 (random) +/- 6 (systematic) (type Ia supernovae), 71 +/- 2 +/- 7 (Tully-Fisher relation), 70 +/- 5 +/- 6 (surface brightness fluctuations), 72 +/- 9 +/- 7 (type II supernovae), and 82 +/- 6 +/- 9 (fundamental plane). We combine these results for the different methods with 3 different weighting schemes, and find good agreement and consistency with H0 = 72 +/- 8. Finally, we compare these results with other, global methods for measuring the Hubble constant.
The compiled record
The paper's own sentences, arranged, kept beside the review and separate from it. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.
The abstract, sentence by sentence
We present here the final results of the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project to measure the Hubble constant. We summarize our method, the results and the uncertainties, tabulate our revised distances, and give the implications of these results for cosmology. The analysis presented here benefits from a number of recent improvements and refinements, including (1) a larger LMC Cepheid sample to define the fiducial period-luminosity (PL) relations, (2) a more recent HST Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) photometric calibration, (3) a correction for Cepheid metallicity, and (4) a correction for incompleteness bias in the observed Cepheid PL samples. New, revised distances are given for the 18 spiral galaxies for which Cepheids have been discovered as part of the Key Project, as well as for 13 additional galaxies with published Cepheid data. The new calibration results in a Cepheid distance to NGC 4258 in better agreement with the maser distance to this galaxy. Based on these revised Cepheid distances, we find values (in km/sec/Mpc) of H0 = 71 +/- 2 (random) +/- 6 (systematic) (type Ia supernovae), 71 +/- 2 +/- 7 (Tully-Fisher relation), 70 +/- 5 +/- 6 (surface brightness fluctuations), 72 +/- 9 +/- 7 (type II supernovae), and 82 +/- 6 +/- 9 (fundamental plane). We combine these results for the different methods with 3 different weighting schemes, and find good agreement and consistency with H0 = 72 +/- 8. Finally, we compare these results with other, global methods for measuring the Hubble constant.
background contribution method result interpretation main claim
| # | sentence | role | the authors' own work | states the main conclusion | strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s0 | We present here the final results of the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project to measure the Hubble constant. | contribution 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.07 | asserted 0.93 |
| s1 | We summarize our method, the results and the uncertainties, tabulate our revised distances, and give the implications of these results for cosmology. | contribution 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.05 | asserted 0.94 |
| s2 | The analysis presented here benefits from a number of recent improvements and refinements, including (1) a larger LMC Cepheid sample to define the fiducial period-luminosity (PL) relations, (2) a more recent HST Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) photometric calibration, (3) a correction for Cepheid metallicity, and (4) a correction for incompleteness bias in the observed Cepheid PL samples. | method 0.94 | 0.39 | 0.03 | asserted 0.99 |
| s3 | New, revised distances are given for the 18 spiral galaxies for which Cepheids have been discovered as part of the Key Project, as well as for 13 additional galaxies with published Cepheid data. | contribution 0.68 | 0.86 | 0.03 | asserted 1.00 |
| s4 | The new calibration results in a Cepheid distance to NGC 4258 in better agreement with the maser distance to this galaxy. | result 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.04 | asserted 0.97 |
| s5 | Based on these revised Cepheid distances, we find values (in km/sec/Mpc) of H0 = 71 +/- 2 (random) +/- 6 (systematic) (type Ia supernovae), 71 +/- 2 +/- 7 (Tully-Fisher relation), 70 +/- 5 +/- 6 (surface brightness fluctuations), 72 +/- 9 +/- 7 (type II supernovae), and 82 +/- 6 +/- 9 (fundamental plane). | result 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.57 | asserted 1.00 |
| s6 | We combine these results for the different methods with 3 different weighting schemes, and find good agreement and consistency with H0 = 72 +/- 8. | result 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.66 | asserted 0.98 |
| s7 | Finally, we compare these results with other, global methods for measuring the Hubble constant. | contribution 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.03 | unclear 0.66 |
What was examined, and what was not
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- P abstract
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Figures
Showing 8 of the paper's 9 figures. See all figures in the PDF ↗ Figures reproduced from arXiv:astro-ph/0012376 by the authors.
References
How later papers used it
288 later papers cite it
23 later papers by other authors are listed below: 23 used its data or values.
Uses its data or values 23 of 146 papers with this label
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Used a prior on the Hubble parameter H0 = 0.72 ± 0.08 derived from Hubble Space Telescope measurements from this paper.
Cosmological constraints on the Hu-Sawicki modified gravity scenario (2009) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used only this paper's result from the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project team papers, adopting its metallicity-corrected distance values.
An independent determination of the local Hubble constant (2017) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used the Hubble constant measurement from the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project of this paper as data.
Challenges to the DGP Model from Horizon-Scale Growth and Geometry (2008) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Imposed the Gaussian Hubble Space Telescope prior h = 0.72 ± 0.08 from this paper.
Anisotropies in the Cosmic Neutrino Background after WMAP 5-year Data (2008) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Included the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project measurement of H0 from this paper.
Are cosmological neutrinos free-streaming? (2008) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Adopted the Cepheid distance of 3.15 Mpc from this paper for NGC 5253.
Thirty Years of Radio Observations of Type Ia SN 1972E and SN 1895B: Constraints on Circumstellar Shells (2020) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Assumed a distance to M31 of d = 752 ± 17 kpc from this paper.
AT 2016dah and AT 2017fyp: the first classical novae discovered within a tidal stream (2020) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Assumed the distance to the LMC is 50.1 kpc from this paper.
The recent LMC-SMC collision: Timing and impact parameter constraints from comparison of Gaia LMC disk kinematics and N-body simulations (2022) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Drew random values for LMC and SMC distances from this paper.
The Proper Motion Field of the Small Magellanic Cloud: Kinematic Evidence for its Tidal Disruption (2018) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used the Hubble Space Telescope measurement of the Hubble parameter from this paper via a Gaussian likelihood centered on h = 0.72 with standard deviation 0.08.
Constraints on Models with a Break in the Primordial Power Spectrum (2009) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Fixed the dimensionless Hubble constant to h = 0.72 from this paper.
Late universe dynamics with scale-independent linear couplings in the dark sector (2008) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used h = 0.72 ± 0.08 given by the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project of this paper.
Observational constraint on generalized Chaplygin gas model (2010) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used the Hubble Space Telescope prior on the reduced Hubble constant h = 0.72 ± 0.07 from this paper.
Observables sensitive to absolute neutrino masses. II (2008) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used the Hubble Space Telescope measurement of H0 from this paper to complete its H(z) data set.
From model dynamics to oscillating dark energy parameterisation (2008) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Cited this paper for the distances to M100 and M101 in its table of observed sources.
Hydrogen Radio Recombination Line Emission from M51 and NGC628 (2018) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Adopting a distance modulus for M31, $μ_o(M31) = 24.38±0.05$ [ref] , along with an absolute $K$-band magnitude for the sun of $M_K,⊙=3.27$ [ref] , yields an integrated $K$-band luminosity for M31 of $L_K(M31) = 1.2×10^11 L_⊙,K$.
The Rate and Spatial Distribution of Novae in M31 as Determined by a Twenty-Year Survey (2022) · The Luminosity-Specific Nova Rate · 1.00
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We adopted a Galactic neutral hydrogen column density $NH_MW = 6.14 ×10^20 cm^-2$ [ref] in the direction of SN 2014C and a distance of 14.7 Mpc [ref] .
Six years of luminous X-ray emission from the strongly interacting type-Ib SN 2014C captured by Chandra and NuSTAR (2020) · Observations and Analysis · 1.00
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Included a prior on the Hubble constant H0 from the HST Key Project of this paper.
Falsifying Paradigms for Cosmic Acceleration (2008) · 0.97 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Took the central value of its Hubble constant prior from this paper, with a hypothetical error.
The Hubble constant and dark energy from cosmological distance measures (2007) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used this paper as a dominant source of distance information, rescaled slightly for consistency with other distances.
Cosmicflows-4: The Baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation Providing ~10,000 Distances (2022) · 0.94 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Identified its calculated value with the measured value of the Hubble constant from this paper.
Equilibrium boundary conditions, dynamic vacuum energy, and the Big Bang (2008) · 0.99 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used Cepheid distances of NGC 3319 and NGC 3198 updated from this paper.
A measurement of the Hubble constant from Type II supernovae (2020) · 0.95 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used this paper's Key Project distances among the CPLR sample of 76 galaxies.
Cosmicflows-4 (2022) · 0.98 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
How the literature uses it
115 arXiv papers cite this in 144 sentences
Papers whose main result relates to this one's
States the same result 1 paper
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The result was H_0 = 72 +/- 8 km/sec/Mpc and put an end to galaxy distances uncertain by a factor of two.
Measuring the Hubble Constant with the Hubble Space Telescope · 1.00
Papers citing it · 48 sentences without a confident label
Uses its method or tool 1 paper
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We define the virial radius $R_vir$ as being the radius within which the average density is bigger than the average cosmological density by a factor $Δ$, called virial overdensity, for which we have adopted here the fitting form of Bryan and Norman [ref] [equation] leading to the relationship [equation] where we have assumed a Hubble constant of 72 km s$^-1$Mpc$^-1$ [ref] , and $Ω_m=0.3$.
Compact Stars as Dark Matter Probes · White dwarfs in globular clusters · 0.81
Uses its data or values 71 papers
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In this section, we constrain the parameters in the axion model with the assumption of a flat Universe by using the latest observational data including the Type 1a Supernovae Union2 compilation [ref] , the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation [ref] measurement from the SDSS [ref] , the Cosmic Microwave background measurement given by WMAP [ref] observations and the H(z) data from HST key Project [ref] .
Observational Constraints on Axions as Quintessence in String Theory · Observational Constraint On Model Parameters · 1.00
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We used the superovae data from Kowalski et al. [ref] to obtain the observational trend of $d_L(z)$ and we considered $H(z)$ values obtained by Simon, Verde and Jimenez [ref] and a prior on the Hubble parameter $H_0=0.72±0.08$ derived from measurements from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST, [ref] ), Finally, we used the value of $A$ from Eisenstein et al. [ref] .
Cosmological constraints on the Hu-Sawicki modified gravity scenario · Method · 1.00
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Again, by utilizing Cepheid variables and SNe Ia from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) project, the present day value of expansion rate stood at $74.03 ±1.42$km/s/Mpc [ref] .
Analysing Hubble Tension and Gravitational Waves for $f(Q,T)$ Gravity Theories · Introduction · 0.99
Compares with it 5 papers
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[ref], [ref] and [ref] for the observable Hubble constant are all consistent with the low redshift measurements of the expansion rate that should specifically probe the observable Hubble constant; the value $H_0 = 66 kms^-1Mpc^-1$ sits firmly within the limits of the final results from the Hubble Key Project: $H_0 = 72 ±8 kms^-1Mpc^-1$ [ref] or $H_0 = 62.3 ±5.2 kms^-1Mpc^-1$ [ref] .
Dark energy as a mirage · The Hubble Key Project · 0.96
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This value is consistent with that obtained from Cepheid measurements by Huterer et al. [ref] , but $9±13$% larger than the more commonly cited value of Freedman et al. [ref] , (see [ref] for a fuller discussion).
Radio Imaging of SN 1993J: The Story Continues · Introduction · 0.98
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This result is consistent with the 3 year WMAP dataset result $H_0=73±3 km s^-1 Mpc^-1$ [ref] and with the Hubble Space Telescope key project result $H_0=73±8 km s^-1 Mpc^-1$ [ref] .
Cosmological constraints combining H(z), CMB shift and SNIa observational data · Hubble parameter observations · 0.87
Cites it as background 6 papers
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The distance ladder approach [ref] in cosmology is a methodical technique used to determine cosmological distances across the universe, spanning from nearby stars to distant galaxies.
Hubble Tension or Distance Ladder Crisis? · Distance Ladder Approaches · 0.88
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On the other hand, if one includes a cosmological constant [ref] , even the small one which is seemingly present in our universe [ref] , the presence of a cosmological horizon changes the late-time decay to one which is exponentially damped [ref] , replacing the branch cut with a discrete set of non-oscillatory, purely damped modes.
Pseudospectrum of de Sitter black holes · Introduction · 0.89
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However, Type Ia SNe require independent calibration to anchor the distance ladder, relying on geometry [ref] and extensions to larger distances with empirical relations in Cepheid variables [ref] and the tip of the red giant branch [ref] , or with other methods [ref] .
Expanding Ejecta Method: I. Mapping Supernova Morphology with Intensity Interferometry · Introduction · 0.84
Discussion
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