Pith. sign in

REVIEW 20 cited by

GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting

Not yet reviewed by Pith; the record is open.

This paper has not been read by Pith yet. Machine review is queued; the pith claim, tier, and objections will appear here once it completes.

SPECIMEN: schema-true, not a live event

T0 review · schema-true

One-sentence machine reading of the paper's core claim.

pith:XXXXXXXX · record.json · timestamp

arxiv 2212.12794 v2 pith:R5JKARN5 submitted 2022-12-24 cs.LG physics.ao-ph

GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting

classification cs.LG physics.ao-ph
keywords weathergraphcastforecastingaccuratedatadirectlyglobalimprove
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
0 comments
read the original abstract

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

discussion (0)

Sign in with ORCID, Apple, or X to comment. Anyone can read and Pith papers without signing in.

Forward citations

Cited by 20 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

  1. Smoothness Errors in Dynamics Models and How to Avoid Them

    cs.LG 2026-02 unverdicted novelty 7.0

    Relaxed unitary convolutions for GNNs on meshes balance smoothness preservation with natural smoothing in dynamics, outperforming unitary convolutions and other models on PDEs and weather tasks.

  2. HourGlass: A probabilistic data-driven temporal downscaler for global and regional weather forecasting

    physics.ao-ph 2026-07 accept novelty 6.5

    HourGlass probabilistically reconstructs hourly weather evolution between 6-hourly forecast states using CRPS training on NWP trajectories, preserving skill and small-scale variability better than deterministic downscalers.

  3. PhysMetrics.Weather: An Evaluation Framework for Physical Consistency in ML Weather Models

    cs.LG 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    PhysMetrics.Weather is an evaluation framework that quantifies physical realism of ML weather prediction models using conservation, spectral, and dynamical metrics.

  4. WeatherSyn: An Instruction Tuning MLLM For Weather Forecasting Report Generation

    cs.CL 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    WeatherSyn is the first instruction-tuned MLLM for weather forecasting report generation, outperforming closed-source models on a new dataset of 31 US cities across 8 weather aspects.

  5. A PMP-inspired Evaluation Framework for Assessing Deep-Learning Earth System Models

    physics.ao-ph 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    The paper presents a PMP-based evaluation framework to test deep-learning Earth system models on climatology and modes of variability using observational data.

  6. A PMP-inspired Evaluation Framework for Assessing Deep-Learning Earth System Models

    physics.ao-ph 2026-04 conditional novelty 6.0

    Standard PMP diagnostics show DL-ESMs match CMIP-class skill on many large-scale fields but still fail key precipitation, monsoon, and long-run stability tests.

  7. AIFS-COMPO: A Global Data-Driven Atmospheric Composition Forecasting System

    physics.ao-ph 2026-03 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    AIFS-COMPO is a transformer-based data-driven model that delivers medium-range global atmospheric composition forecasts with skill comparable to the operational CAMS system but at much lower computational cost.

  8. A Two-Phase Deep Learning Framework for Adaptive Time-Stepping in High-Speed Flow Modeling

    cs.LG 2025-06 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    ShockCast is a two-phase ML method that predicts adaptive timestep sizes to model high-speed flows with shocks more efficiently than fixed-step approaches.

  9. Otter Weather: Skillful and Computationally Efficient Medium-Range Weather Forecasting

    cs.LG 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    Otter Weather is a spatiotemporal model that outperforms NWP baselines by 9.6% at 24h lead with under 3.5 A100-days training and extends efficiency gains to probabilistic forecasting via CRPS.

  10. Sparse probes and murky physics: a case study of interpretability challenges in a foundation model for continuum dynamics

    cs.LG 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    Case study applies SAE probing with enstrophy triage to a continuum-dynamics foundation model and reports intermittent feature consistency that does not align with standard physics while linking some output discrepanc...

  11. Physically Viable World Models: A Case for Query-Conditioned Embodied AI

    cs.AI 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    Embodied AI requires query-conditioned world models that select the simplest physical abstraction sufficient to answer intervention queries.

  12. Heterogeneous Scientific Foundation Model Collaboration

    cs.AI 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    Eywa enables language-based agentic AI systems to collaborate with specialized scientific foundation models for improved performance on structured data tasks.

  13. Regimes of Scale in AI Meteorology

    cs.HC 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    AI/ML weather tools face integration challenges from mismatched 'regimes of scale' in how data and models are organized compared to traditional meteorology practices.

  14. Downscaling weather forecasts from Low- to High-Resolution with Diffusion Models

    physics.ao-ph 2026-03 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    A conditional diffusion model downscales global atmospheric forecasts from 100 km to 30 km resolution while improving probabilistic skill, matching power spectra, and preserving physical relationships.

  15. Physics Priors Offer Useful Accuracy-Carbon Trade-Offs in Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

    cs.LG 2025-09 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    Stronger physics priors in neural networks for spatio-temporal shear flow forecasting yield substantially lower training carbon footprints than weak or no priors, though inference savings are less consistent.

  16. Enhancing a high resolution data-driven weather prediction model with surface descriptors

    physics.ao-ph 2026-07 conditional novelty 4.5

    Surface descriptors cut 2 m temperature and 10 m wind MAE by 1.9% and 3.0% domain-wide (about 12% for urban temperature) in a stretched-grid data-driven weather model, and glacier removal raises temperature without re...

  17. The Virtuous Cycle of Quantum-Classical Machine Learning

    quant-ph 2026-07 accept novelty 4.0

    Classical ML and quantum computing mutually accelerate each other through error correction, control, simulation data, and quantum-native learning, forming a virtuous cycle toward quantum intelligence.

  18. Does Aurora Encode Atmospheric Structure? Latent Regime Analysis and Attribution

    cs.LG 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 4.0

    Aurora's latent space is organized by seasonal cycles with evidence of encoding 3D vertical atmospheric structure for storms, confirmed by perturbation experiments.

  19. A PMP-inspired Evaluation Framework for Assessing Deep-Learning Earth System Models

    physics.ao-ph 2026-04 conditional novelty 4.0

    A PMP-based evaluation framework for testing deep-learning Earth system models on climate-relevant diagnostics beyond short-range forecasts.

  20. Exploratory Analysis of Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Meteorological Parameters in the Agricultural Sector

    cs.LG 2026-07 conditional novelty 3.0

    On Ioannina ERA5 hourly data, hybrid 1D-CNN–RNN models raise a composite WQS by 1.22–1.63% at 24 h and 0.44–0.45% at 168 h over the best single-layer GRU/LSTM baselines.