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arxiv: 2604.06212 · v1 · submitted 2026-03-16 · 💻 cs.SE · cs.AI· cs.CL

Recognition: no theorem link

Code Sharing In Prediction Model Research: A Scoping Review

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Pith reviewed 2026-05-15 10:16 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💻 cs.SE cs.AIcs.CL
keywords code sharingprediction modelsreproducibilityscoping reviewTRIPODopen scienceresearch practices
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The pith

Prediction model studies share code in only 12 percent of cases, and shared code is frequently not reusable.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This scoping review quantifies code-sharing practices across nearly 4,000 published studies that develop or validate prediction models. It shows that only 12.2 percent of papers include any code-sharing statement, with rates rising modestly to 15.8 percent in 2025 but still varying sharply by journal and country. When repositories are shared, most contain a README file yet far fewer specify dependencies, constrain versions, or adopt a modular structure. The review supplies an empirical baseline to guide the creation of TRIPOD-Code, an extension of existing reporting standards that would address code documentation and reusability rather than availability alone.

Core claim

Among 3,967 eligible articles citing TRIPOD or TRIPOD+AI, 12.2 percent included code-sharing statements. Repository assessment against 14 reproducibility features revealed substantial heterogeneity: 80.5 percent had a README, yet only 37.6 percent specified dependencies (21.6 percent with version constraints) and 42.4 percent were modular. Code sharing was higher in TRIPOD+AI-citing studies and increased over time, but overall remained uncommon and often fell short of supporting reuse.

What carries the argument

A scoping review of PubMed articles citing TRIPOD statements that uses an LLM-assisted pipeline to extract code-availability statements and evaluate repositories against 14 predefined reproducibility features.

If this is right

  • TRIPOD-Code should define explicit requirements for documentation, dependency specification, licensing, and executable structure.
  • Code sharing rates differ by journal and country, indicating that targeted journal policies could raise participation.
  • Reproducibility in prediction model research requires standards beyond merely making code available.
  • The current 12.2 percent baseline can be used to measure whether new guidelines increase both the quantity and quality of shared code.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Researchers might adopt standardized repository templates to meet future guidelines more easily.
  • Low reusability of shared code could slow cumulative validation of prediction models across studies.
  • Journal editors could require a minimal reproducibility checklist at submission to accelerate improvement.

Load-bearing premise

The LLM-assisted screening and extraction pipeline correctly identifies code availability statements and accurately assesses the 14 reproducibility features without substantial misclassification.

What would settle it

A manual audit of a random sample of 200 papers that directly compares the LLM-derived code-sharing rate and feature scores against human judgments.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2604.06212 by Catherine A. Gao, Charlotta Lindvall, Gary S. Collins, Hyeonhoon Lee, Hyung-Chul Lee, Karel G.M. Moons, Lasai Barre\~nada, Leo Anthony Celi, Raffaele Giancotti, Thomas Sounack, Tom Pollard.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Modified PRISMA Flow diagram. We determined that an article was sharing code (n=482) if: it [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Proportion of articles sharing their code by year, for the article cohort (n=3,967). Articles that only [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: (Top) Proportion of articles sharing their code by country and (Bottom) number of articles by [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Proportion of articles reporting their code by journal, for the article cohort (n=3,967). Journals [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Repository characteristics – quality criteria against percentage of repositories, for the repository [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Repository characteristics by journal, for the repository cohort (n=380), for journals with more [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Annual distribution of programming languages across repositories, for the repository cohort [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_7.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Analytical code is essential for reproducing diagnostic and prognostic prediction model research, yet code availability in the published literature remains limited. While the TRIPOD statements set standards for reporting prediction model methods, they do not define explicit standards for repository structure and documentation. This review quantifies current code-sharing practices to inform the development of TRIPOD-Code, a TRIPOD extension reporting guideline focused on code sharing. We conducted a scoping review of PubMed-indexed articles citing TRIPOD or TRIPOD+AI as of Aug 11, 2025, restricted to studies retrievable via the PubMed Central Open Access API. Eligible studies developed, updated, or validated multivariable prediction models. A large language model-assisted pipeline was developed to screen articles and extract code availability statements and repository links. Repositories were assessed with the same LLM against 14 predefined reproducibility-related features. Our code is made publicly available. Among 3,967 eligible articles, 12.2% included code sharing statements. Code sharing increased over time, reaching 15.8% in 2025, and was higher among TRIPOD+AI-citing studies than TRIPOD-citing studies. Sharing prevalence varied widely by journal and country. Repository assessment showed substantial heterogeneity in reproducibility features: most repositories contained a README file (80.5%), but fewer specified dependencies (37.6%; version-constrained 21.6%) or were modular (42.4%). In prediction model research, code sharing remains relatively uncommon, and when shared, often falls short of being reusable. These findings provide an empirical baseline for the TRIPOD-Code extension and underscore the need for clearer expectations beyond code availability, including documentation, dependency specification, licensing, and executable structure.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper conducts a scoping review of 3,967 PubMed-indexed articles citing TRIPOD or TRIPOD+AI (retrieved via PMC OA API) that develop, update, or validate multivariable prediction models. Using an LLM-assisted pipeline, it finds that 12.2% of articles include code-sharing statements (rising to 15.8% in 2025 and higher for TRIPOD+AI citations), with substantial variation by journal and country. Assessment of the shared repositories against 14 reproducibility features shows heterogeneity (e.g., 80.5% contain a README, 37.6% specify dependencies with 21.6% version-constrained, 42.4% are modular). The work provides an empirical baseline to inform the TRIPOD-Code extension guideline.

Significance. If the LLM extraction proves reliable, the large sample and direct counts supply a useful descriptive baseline on code-sharing prevalence and quality in prediction-model research. This directly supports development of TRIPOD-Code by quantifying gaps in documentation, dependency specification, and reusability beyond mere availability statements.

major comments (2)
  1. [Methods] Methods (LLM-assisted screening and extraction pipeline): No validation metrics (precision, recall, kappa, or human gold-standard comparison) are reported for either the article screening/code-statement extraction step or the subsequent 14-feature repository assessment. Systematic LLM errors could materially shift the headline 12.2% prevalence or the reported feature rates (e.g., dependency specification), undermining the claim that sharing is 'relatively uncommon' and 'often falls short of being reusable'.
  2. [Results] Results (prevalence and feature percentages): The reported figures (12.2%, 15.8%, 37.6%, etc.) are presented without confidence intervals, sensitivity analyses, or discussion of potential misclassification rates, leaving the central empirical claims vulnerable to extraction bias.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: The cutoff date 'Aug 11, 2025' should be clarified (projection, typo, or actual search date) to avoid confusion.
  2. [Methods] Methods: Releasing the exact LLM prompts and model version used would improve reproducibility of the pipeline, consistent with the paper's own emphasis on code sharing.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

Thank you for the detailed and constructive referee report. We have carefully considered the comments and provide point-by-point responses below. We plan to make revisions to address the concerns raised regarding the validation of our LLM-assisted methods and the statistical reporting of results.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: [Methods] Methods (LLM-assisted screening and extraction pipeline): No validation metrics (precision, recall, kappa, or human gold-standard comparison) are reported for either the article screening/code-statement extraction step or the subsequent 14-feature repository assessment. Systematic LLM errors could materially shift the headline 12.2% prevalence or the reported feature rates (e.g., dependency specification), undermining the claim that sharing is 'relatively uncommon' and 'often falls short of being reusable'.

    Authors: We thank the referee for highlighting this important point. While the manuscript did not include formal validation metrics, the full pipeline code is publicly available to allow independent verification. To strengthen the work, we will add a validation subsection in the Methods, including a human review of a subsample (e.g., 100 articles) to compute precision and recall for screening and extraction steps, as well as inter-rater agreement. This will be reported in the revised manuscript. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Results] Results (prevalence and feature percentages): The reported figures (12.2%, 15.8%, 37.6%, etc.) are presented without confidence intervals, sensitivity analyses, or discussion of potential misclassification rates, leaving the central empirical claims vulnerable to extraction bias.

    Authors: We agree that the absence of confidence intervals and sensitivity analyses is a limitation. In the revised manuscript, we will compute and report 95% confidence intervals for all key prevalence estimates using the binomial exact method. Additionally, we will include sensitivity analyses that adjust the reported rates under plausible misclassification scenarios informed by the validation results. A brief discussion of potential extraction bias will be added to the Results and Discussion sections. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: empirical scoping review reports direct counts without derivations or self-referential reductions

full rationale

This scoping review quantifies code-sharing prevalence via screening of 3,967 articles and direct assessment of repository features against 14 criteria. No equations, fitted parameters, predictions, or derivations appear in the methods or results. The LLM-assisted pipeline is a methodological tool whose outputs (counts such as 12.2% sharing rate) are presented as empirical observations, not as outputs forced by prior inputs or self-citations. TRIPOD citations provide background context for the review's motivation but do not bear the load of the reported statistics. No self-definitional loops, renamed known results, or uniqueness claims imported from the authors' prior work are present. The central findings remain independent of any internal construction.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on standard scoping review eligibility definitions and an LLM extraction pipeline; no free parameters are fitted and no new entities are postulated.

axioms (1)
  • domain assumption The PubMed Central Open Access API yields a representative sample of TRIPOD-citing prediction model studies for the chosen date range.
    The review restricts eligibility to articles retrievable via this API.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5672 in / 1193 out tokens · 48774 ms · 2026-05-15T10:16:32.586475+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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Reference graph

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    , 22d e s c r i p t i o n =" Whether t h e p a p e r meets t h e i n c l u s i o n c r i t e r i a f o r a m u l t i v a r i a b l e p r e d i c t i o n model s t u d y . " , 23) 24r e a s o n : s t r = F i e l d (

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    URL t o t h e p a p e r ' s code r e p o s i t o r y i f t h e p a p e r i s a match

    , 37d e s c r i p t i o n =( 38"URL t o t h e p a p e r ' s code r e p o s i t o r y i f t h e p a p e r i s a match . " 39" Use ' Appendix ' i f code i s e x p l i c i t l y s t a t e d t o be i n s u p p l e m e n t a r y m a t e r i a l s "

  41. [41]

    , 41) 42c o d e _ s t a t e m e n t _ l o c a t i o n s : O p t i o n a l [ L i s t [ C o d e S t a t e m e n t L o c a t i o n ] ] = F i e l d (

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    A l l l o c a t i o n s i n t h e p a p e r where a code a v a i l a b i l i t y s t a t e m e n t a p p e a r s i f a r e p o _ u r l i s found

    , 44d e s c r i p t i o n =( 45" A l l l o c a t i o n s i n t h e p a p e r where a code a v a i l a b i l i t y s t a t e m e n t a p p e a r s i f a r e p o _ u r l i s found . " 46" Use [ ' o t h e r ' ] i f t h e code a v a i l a b i l i t y s t a t e m e n t l o c a t i o n does n o t f i t t h e a v a i l a b l e c a t e g o r i e s "

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    , 48) 49c o d e _ s t a t e m e n t _ s e n t e n c e : O p t i o n a l [ s t r ] = F i e l d (

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    ' The code can be found h e r e : ' " , 52) 17 C Code repository characterization prompt and output schema C.1 Prompt You will be provided the tree of a repository and its code

    , 51d e s c r i p t i o n =" I f r e p o _ u r l i s found , t h e s e n t e n c e i n t r o d u c i n g t h e r e p o s i t o r y u r l ( w i t h o u t t h e u r l i t s e l f ) , eg . ' The code can be found h e r e : ' " , 52) 17 C Code repository characterization prompt and output schema C.1 Prompt You will be provided the tree of a repository and its...

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    Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i s empty . C o n s i d e r i t empty i f i t c o n t a i n s no f i l e s ,

    , 5d e s c r i p t i o n =( 6" Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i s empty . C o n s i d e r i t empty i f i t c o n t a i n s no f i l e s , " 7" o n l y empty f i l e s , o r o n l y a README f i l e . "

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    , 9) 10 11# README 12c o n t a i n s _ r e a d m e : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y c o n t a i n s u s a g e / s t r u c t u r e i n s t r u c t i o n s ( e . g . , README . md /README. t x t /README)

    , 14d e s c r i p t i o n =( 15" Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y c o n t a i n s u s a g e / s t r u c t u r e i n s t r u c t i o n s ( e . g . , README . md /README. t x t /README) . "

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    , 17) 18r e a d m e _ p u r p o s e _ a n d _ o u t p u t s : O p t i o n a l [ b o o l ] = F i e l d (

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    I f c o n t a i n s _ r e a d m e i s True , w h e t h e r t h e README p r o v i d e s an o v e r v i e w o f t h e r e p o s i t o r y p u r p o s e

    , 20d e s c r i p t i o n =( 18 21" I f c o n t a i n s _ r e a d m e i s True , w h e t h e r t h e README p r o v i d e s an o v e r v i e w o f t h e r e p o s i t o r y p u r p o s e " 22" and e x p e c t e d o u t p u t s . Do n o t r e t u r n a n y t h i n g i f c o n t a i n s _ r e a d m e i s F a l s e . "

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    , 24) 25 26# R e q u i r e m e n t s 27c o n t a i n s _ r e q u i r e m e n t s : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y s p e c i f i e s s o f t w a r e d e p e n d e n c i e s e i t h e r i n a d e d i c a t e d f i l e

    , 29d e s c r i p t i o n =( 30" Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y s p e c i f i e s s o f t w a r e d e p e n d e n c i e s e i t h e r i n a d e d i c a t e d f i l e " 31" ( e . g . , r e q u i r e m e n t s . t x t , e n v i r o n m e n t . yml , p y p r o j e c t . toml ) o r i n t h e README . "

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    , 33) 34r e q u i r e m e n t s _ d e p e n d e n c y _ v e r s i o n s : O p t i o n a l [ b o o l ] = F i e l d (

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    I f c o n t a i n s _ r e q u i r e m e n t s i s True , w h e t h e r d e p e n d e n c i e s i n c l u d e v e r s i o n c o n s t r a i n t s

    , 36d e s c r i p t i o n =( 37" I f c o n t a i n s _ r e q u i r e m e n t s i s True , w h e t h e r d e p e n d e n c i e s i n c l u d e v e r s i o n c o n s t r a i n t s " 38" ( e . g . , package = = 1 . 2 . 3 , >= , ~=) . Do n o t r e t u r n a n y t h i n g i f c o n t a i n s _ r e q u i r e m e n t s i s F a l s e . "

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    , 40) 41 42# L i c e n s e 43c o n t a i n s _ l i c e n s e : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i n c l u d e s a l i c e n s e f i l e d e s c r i b i n g u s a g e p e r m i s s i o n s

    , 45d e s c r i p t i o n =" Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i n c l u d e s a l i c e n s e f i l e d e s c r i b i n g u s a g e p e r m i s s i o n s . " , 46) 47 48# Documentation 49s u f f i c i e n t _ c o d e _ d o c u m e n t a t i o n : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether t h e code c o n t a i n s s u f f i c i e n t i n l i n e comments / d o c s t r i n g s e x p l a i n i n g key components

    , 51d e s c r i p t i o n =( 52" Whether t h e code c o n t a i n s s u f f i c i e n t i n l i n e comments / d o c s t r i n g s e x p l a i n i n g key components " 53" so a u s e r can u n d e r s t a n d t h e l o g i c . "

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    , 55) 56 57# M o d u l a r i t y 58i s _ m o d u l a r _ a n d _ s t r u c t u r e d : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether code i s o r g a n i z e d i n t o modular , r e u s a b l e components ( f u n c t i o n s / c l a s s e s / modules )

    , 60d e s c r i p t i o n =( 61" Whether code i s o r g a n i z e d i n t o modular , r e u s a b l e components ( f u n c t i o n s / c l a s s e s / modules ) " 62" r a t h e r t h a n a few l o n g s c r i p t s . "

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    , 64) 65 66# T e s t i n g 67i m p l e m e n t s _ t e s t s : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i n c l u d e s t e s t s ( u n i t / f u n c t i o n a l ) , t e s t f i l e s / s c r i p t s , o r m e a n i n g f u l

    , 69d e s c r i p t i o n =( 70" Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i n c l u d e s t e s t s ( u n i t / f u n c t i o n a l ) , t e s t f i l e s / s c r i p t s , o r m e a n i n g f u l " 71" a s s e r t i o n s v e r i f y i n g e x p e c t e d b e h a v i o r . "

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    , 73) 74 75# R e p r o d u c i b i l i t y 76f i x e s _ s e e d _ i f _ s t o c h a s t i c : O p t i o n a l [ b o o l ] = F i e l d (

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    I f t h e r e p o s i t o r y u s e s s t o c h a s t i c p r o c e s s e s ( e . g . , random sampling , ML t r a i n i n g ) , w h e t h e r i t

    , 78d e s c r i p t i o n =( 79" I f t h e r e p o s i t o r y u s e s s t o c h a s t i c p r o c e s s e s ( e . g . , random sampling , ML t r a i n i n g ) , w h e t h e r i t " 80" s e t s f i x e d random s e e d s f o r r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y . Do n o t r e t u r n a n y t h i n g i f s t o c h a s t i c i t y i s n o t a p p l i c a b l e . " 19

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    , 82) 83l i s t s _ h a r d w a r e _ r e q u i r e m e n t s : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether h a r d w a r e r e q u i r e m e n t s ( e . g . , GPU/ CPU /R A M) a r e s t a t e d anywhere i n t h e r e p o s i t o r y

    , 85d e s c r i p t i o n =" Whether h a r d w a r e r e q u i r e m e n t s ( e . g . , GPU/ CPU /R A M) a r e s t a t e d anywhere i n t h e r e p o s i t o r y . " , 86) 87 88# C i t a t i o n and L i n k i n g 89c o n t a i n s _ l i n k _ t o _ p a p e r : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i n c l u d e s a l i n k (URL/ DOI / a r X i v / PubMed ) t o t h e a s s o c i a t e d p a p e r

    , 91d e s c r i p t i o n =" Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i n c l u d e s a l i n k (URL/ DOI / a r X i v / PubMed ) t o t h e a s s o c i a t e d p a p e r . " , 92) 93c o n t a i n s _ c i t a t i o n : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y p r o v i d e s a c i t a t i o n f o r t h e p a p e r ( e . g . , p l a i n t e x t c i t a t i o n , BibTeX e n t r y ,

    , 95d e s c r i p t i o n =( 96" Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y p r o v i d e s a c i t a t i o n f o r t h e p a p e r ( e . g . , p l a i n t e x t c i t a t i o n , BibTeX e n t r y , " 97"CITATION . c f f , o r a LaTeX c i t a t i o n key ) . "

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    , 99) 100 101# Data 102i n c l u d e s _ d a t a _ o r _ s a m p l e : b o o l = F i e l d (

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    Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i n c l u d e s t h e o r i g i n a l d a t a s e t o r a sample / demo d a t a s e t s u f f i c i e n t t o run

    , 104d e s c r i p t i o n =( 105" Whether t h e r e p o s i t o r y i n c l u d e s t h e o r i g i n a l d a t a s e t o r a sample / demo d a t a s e t s u f f i c i e n t t o run " 106" o r d e m o n s t r a t e t h e code . "

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    , 108) 109 110# Free − t e x t n o t e s 111c o m m e n t s _ a n d _ e x p l a n a t i o n s : O p t i o n a l [ s t r ] = F i e l d (

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    A d d i t i o n a l comments a b o u t r e p o s i t o r y q u a l i t y , s t r e n g t h s / weaknesses , and n o t a b l e a s p e c t s n o t f u l l y

    , 113d e s c r i p t i o n =( 114" A d d i t i o n a l comments a b o u t r e p o s i t o r y q u a l i t y , s t r e n g t h s / weaknesses , and n o t a b l e a s p e c t s n o t f u l l y " 115" c a p t u r e d by t h e b o o l e a n f i e l d s . "

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    , 117) 118 119# Languages 120c o d i n g _ l a n g u a g e s : O p t i o n a l [ L i s t [ s t r ] ] = F i e l d (

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    I f t h e r e p o s i t o r y c o n t a i n s code , r e t u r n a l l programming l a n g u a g e s used . I n a l i s t

    , 122d e s c r i p t i o n =( 123" I f t h e r e p o s i t o r y c o n t a i n s code , r e t u r n a l l programming l a n g u a g e s used . I n a l i s t " 124" For example , [ ' python ' , ' r ' , ' s q l ' ] . " 125"Do n o t r e t u r n a n y t h i n g i f t h e r e i s no code i n t h e r e p o s i t o r y . "

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    the focus of TRIPOD-Code is on reports of projects in which a multivariable prediction model is developed, updated or validated using any statistical or machine learning technique

    , 127) D Annotation codebook Article annotation guidelines Background This document provides detailed instructions for annotators involved in the TRIPOD-Code project. The goal of this annotation task is to evaluate the availability and quality of code repositories linked to studies that develop, update, or validate multivariable prediction models. Annotat...