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arxiv 2009.04450 v2 pith:JES67JXX submitted 2020-09-09 cs.LG cs.CVcs.ROstat.ML

Map-Adaptive Goal-Based Trajectory Prediction

classification cs.LG cs.CVcs.ROstat.ML
keywords predictionmodeltrajectoryvehicleapproachdatasetgoal-basedlong-term
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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We present a new method for multi-modal, long-term vehicle trajectory prediction. Our approach relies on using lane centerlines captured in rich maps of the environment to generate a set of proposed goal paths for each vehicle. Using these paths -- which are generated at run time and therefore dynamically adapt to the scene -- as spatial anchors, we predict a set of goal-based trajectories along with a categorical distribution over the goals. This approach allows us to directly model the goal-directed behavior of traffic actors, which unlocks the potential for more accurate long-term prediction. Our experimental results on both a large-scale internal driving dataset and on the public nuScenes dataset show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for vehicle trajectory prediction over a 6-second horizon. We also empirically demonstrate that our model is better able to generalize to road scenes from a completely new city than existing methods.

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