INDEX
Every paper Pith has read and judged, in one searchable index.
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econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-20RAG policy regret splits into retrieval plus ranking loss
Masahiro Kato +1 · “Vector Search As Nearest Neighbor Matching: RAG-based Policy Learning in Causal Inference”
2607.18225 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Intersecting loading spaces uncovers transferable latent factors
Yihong Gu +2 · “Unveiling Invariant and Transferable Latent Factors Across Heterogeneous Environments via ATLAS”
2607.18209 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Digital twin detects drift, then fine-tunes <1% of parameters
Yi-Ping Chen +5 · “A Continual Validation, Updating, and Decision-Making Framework for Self-Adaptive Digital Twins via Robust Model Predictive Control: A Case Study in Additive Manufacturing”
2607.18164 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Subgroup fairness gap equals a covariance
Kyungseon Lee +4 · “COVAriance-Induced Fairness Gap Penalty for Subgroup-Fair Clustering”
2607.18119 -
q-bio.PE arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Level-wise recursion gives exact outbreak and duration distributions
Vasileios E. Papageorgiou +2 · “Evaluating the Impact of Epidemic Control via State-Dependent Markovian Switching Modeling”
2607.18364 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Mixture of binomial and bi-uniform fits sex-ratio data best
J\"urgen Gro{\ss} · “A binomial-like probability distribution with heavy tails”
2607.18083 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Brow lowering predicts driver rage in Bayesian network
Za\"ira M\'endez-Porcar +4 · “Predicting subjective rage and facial expressions in human driving: A Bayesian network approach with beta-distributed nodes”
2607.18030 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Bayesian model finds real dispersion in football team scoring
Nick Zhang +2 · “Bayesian Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model with spike-and slab priors for dispersed count data with application to football scores”
2607.18009 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20ρ=0.94: cluster fragments inside TabPFN predict its errors
James Hu +1 · “Topological Signatures of Context-Level Reliability in TabPFN”
2607.17962 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Federated mediation matches pooled-data results
Hyojung Jang +7 · “Privacy-preserving causal mediation analysis using distributed electronic health record networks”
2607.17958 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Resampling erases time sensitivity in unbounded-timer models
Gabriel Dengler +2 · “A Taxonomy of Distance Metrics for Time-Sensitive Importance Splitting: Timer Bounds, Resampling, and the Global Age”
2607.17939 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Tumour scans forecast trial survival 8 months early
Karim Naguib +6 · “PIONEER: Bayesian Joint Modelling of Mechanistic Tumour Growth and Time-to-Event Endpoints for Dynamic Prediction of Ongoing Oncology Trials”
2607.17908 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Truncated signatures learn smooth path functionals at rate K^{-2γ}
Blanka Horvath +4 · “How Fast Do Signatures Learn? Statistical Theory and Applications for Path Regression”
2607.17865 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Smoothed bootstrap lets CRT use external data without losing validity
Yingjie Zhang +2 · “CRT*: Conditional Randomization Testing with Heterogeneous External and Unlabeled Data”
2607.17859 -
math.DS arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Geometry-consistent projection stabilizes particle filters under model error
Surya Ratna Prakash D +1 · “Geometry-Consistent Bayesian Filtering under Structural Model Uncertainty: A Geometric Projection Particle Filter”
2607.17781 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20MICE beats simpler missing-data fixes in 48 trial scenarios
Ben Swallow +2 · “Comparing Missing Data Methods for Estimating Average Treatment Effects Under Time-Varying Confounding: A Simulation Study”
2607.17775 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Simulation maps when network meta-regression works
Nana-adjoa Kwarteng +3 · “Assessing the Impact of Model Assumptions in Network Meta-Regression: A Simulation Study”
2607.17750 -
math.NA arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Order-1/2 strong convergence for superlinear SDEs
Yuga Iguchi +3 · “Pathwise skew-symmetric discretisation for SDEs with superlinear drift”
2607.17735 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Plug-in ruin buffers miss the target safety exponent
Yf Henkes +2 · “Decision-Centric Large Deviations for Data-Driven Capital Buffers in Ruin Models”
2607.17732 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Localized sums of non-stationary series go Gaussian
Florian Heinrichs · “A Functional Central Limit Theorem for Localized Partial Sums of Non-Stationary Time Series”
2607.17697 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Replicator equation governs position bias in Transformers
Cheng Huan +1 · “An Adjoint-Sensitivity Framework for Lost-in-the-Middle Phenomena in Causal Residual Transformers”
2607.17696 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Joint calibration caps adaptive-enrichment error at 9.9%
Masahiro Kojima +2 · “A Globally Calibrated Bayesian Optimal Phase II Design for Adaptive Enrichment Trials”
2607.17692 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Graph-based postprocessing improves synthetic particle topology
Martin Alexander Memmesheimer +1 · “Fitting the topology of synthetic particle systems with a novel graph representation”
2607.17680 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Fairness is a causal question
Youmi Suk · “Equality, Equity, and Causality in Fairness Research: A Commentary on Cheng (2026)”
2607.17679 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-20One MCMC run learns the number of latent traits
Yu Zhou +3 · “An efficient adaptive dimension selection algorithm for multidimensional probit graded response models”
2607.17654 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Static regret alone drives nonconvex optimization
Haichen Hu +1 · “Optimizing the Preconditioner: A Black-box Online-to-Nonconvex Conversion with Static Regret Minimization Oracles”
2607.17607 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-2074–110 km: the spatial core beneath raw airline co-movement
Zihan Li +1 · “Spatial Dependence in Directed Preferential-Attachment Networks”
2607.17597 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20P-to-e calibration beats generic e-values in multiverse scans
Paul Rognon-Vael +1 · “E-Values For Multiplicity Control In Multiverse Analysis”
2607.17596 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Two-stage mediation screening controls FDR without sample splitting
Yueqi Xu +1 · “Two-stage Adaptive Testing of Large-scale Mediation Hypotheses”
2607.17579 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Bayesian vote picks the right model from LLM-written simulators
Siddharth Mishra-Sharma · “Program Synthesis for Simulation-Based Inference: Joint Model Selection and Parameter Estimation”
2607.17540 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Three-Gaussian mixtures: at most eight modes
Akifumi Okuno +1 · “On Mixtures of Three Homoscedastic Gaussian Densities: An Unconditional Sharper Bound on the Number of Modes”
2607.17506 -
stat.CO arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Fit intractable-likelihood models in a few lines
Godrick Oketch +2 · “A general framework for computation and estimation using the saddlepoint approximation”
2607.17464 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Calibrated phrase odds recover held-out posteriors
Matthew F. Dixon · “Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities”
2607.17447 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Trajectory shape predicts Alzheimer's conversion risk
Navin Bondade · “Calibrated Alzheimer's Conversion Risk in Mild Cognitive Impairment: Persistent Homology of Clinical Trajectories with Conformal Guarantees”
2607.17442 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Squaring keys unlocks exponential recall for linear attention
Ayoub Ghriss +1 · “Kernelized Linear Attention: Breaking the Capacity Wall with Symmetric Cones”
2607.17419 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Active querying preserves anytime-valid LLM score intervals
Chia-Yu Hsu +1 · “Efficient Sequential Evaluation of Large Language Models”
2607.17409 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-19One random EM step finds the true value vector
Ethan Levien · “EM-based iterations for multiple instance learning on a query-value model”
2607.17404 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-19KReTTaH imputes missing tensor data without cross-validation
Duc Thien Nguyen +3 · “Kernel Regression with Tensor Trains and Hadamard Overparameterization”
2607.17390 -
econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Transfer works only if source covers the target direction
Yuya Shimizu · “Econometrics with Pre-Trained Embeddings for Unstructured Data”
2607.17378 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-19One scalar decides if a two-part mixture can be untangled
March T. Boedihardjo +1 · “Mixture and separation of log-concave measures”
2607.17368 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Causal subgroup count is a resolution choice
Yuki Ohnishi +1 · “The Resolution of Causal Heterogeneity”
2607.17280 -
econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Bootstrap test catches hidden two-Gaussian SVAR identification failure
Paritosh Shankarrao Junare · “Two Gaussians, Too Many: A bootstrap-based approach to assess identifiability in non-Gaussian structural Vector Autoregressions”
2607.17275 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Near-95% national coverage survives an 85% sample cut
Siu-Ming Tam · “National Versus Domain: Coverage Properties of HB Credible Intervals Under Survey Redesign”
2607.17229 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Seasonal adjustment that uses survey standard errors beats X-11
Siu-Ming Tam · “Bayesian Seasonal Adjustment for Survey Time Series”
2607.17226 -
cs.CL arXiv submitted 2026-07-1917 of 18 LLM answers are near-deterministic in order-effect audit
Pilsung Kang · “Auditing Question-Order Effects in Large Language Models with the QQ Equality: Mechanism Characterization and a Saturation Caveat”
2607.17219 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Proves Navigate-and-Stop hits optimal rate at finite confidence
Joseph Lazzaro +2 · “Non-Asymptotic Best Policy Identification Guarantees in Online Reinforcement Learning”
2607.17201 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Ratio DEA: one shared denominator makes VRS models exact
Vicente J. Bol\'os +3 · “On the suitability of ratio variables in data envelopment analysis: An application to education with methodological extensions”
2607.17193 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Adaptive trials get a design that is most random and most efficient
Zhang Li-Xin · “Efficient Doubly Adaptive Biased Coin Designs for Multiple Treatments”
2607.17176 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-19All plug-in Markov MLE limits from one derivative
Georgios Gavrilopoulos +2 · “Matrix asymptotic calculus for plug-in maximum likelihood estimators in finite Markov chains”
2607.17161 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-19Three structures dictate how many edge queries reveal a planted graph
Wasim Huleihel · “Fundamental Limits of Query-Based Subgraph Detection”
2607.17118