Future microhertz detections combined with nanohertz pulsar terms can serve as gravity echoes to measure supermassive black hole binary inspiral rates from hundreds to thousands of years in the past.
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The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background
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abstract
We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3\sigma$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4\sigma$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal.
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representative citing papers
Phase-resolved scalar distance bounds are derived for ekpyrotic, bouncing, and cyclic cosmologies, yielding a master condition that lower-bounds ε_ek from remaining distance after conversion and bounce.
Hardening binaries experience deterministic self-acceleration of their center of mass, induced precession, and plane rotation in uniform isotropic media, driving outward spiraling and eccentricity growth in all cases rather than circularization.
A full-covariance formalism for PTA-astrometry ORF estimators forecasts graviton-mass upper limits of 4.41e-24 eV/c2 for current-like setups and 0.48e-24 eV/c2 for SKA/Theia-like future setups, with astrometry adding significant power in the latter case.
Pulsar timing arrays can probe supermassive black hole binaries that merged prior to observations via the pulsar term, with SKA potentially detecting a few such zombie binaries at SNR > 3.
A dipole pulsar timing array detects chiral nanohertz gravitational waves and extends PTA sensitivity into the microhertz regime.
A general relativistic derivation of gravitational wave response in an optically levitated cavity sensor reveals position-dependent strain sensitivity and suppressed input-mirror noise coupling.
Tensor perturbations from first-order phase transitions and domain wall annihilation induce curvature fluctuations at second order that form primordial black holes, allowing asteroid-mass PBHs to comprise all dark matter for specific parameter ranges with associated gravitational wave peaks in LISA,
A framework is developed to test beyond-GR effects in nanohertz continuous waves from individual SMBHBs, deriving modified inter-pulsar correlations, antenna responses, and phase delays for three deviation classes, validated by injection-recovery simulations showing parameter recovery and no GR bias
PTA statistical tests lose sensitivity to non-Gaussian GW features after decorrelation and cannot distinguish them model-agnostically.
AM-CW lunar laser ranging achieves μHz SGWB sensitivity of 5.29×10^{-9} D_cov (80 μm range uncertainty) or 2.07×10^{-9} D_cov (50 μm) over 5 years, with discovery possible if covariance degradation stays below ~3.6-13.7.
Analytic gravitational waveforms from radial test-particle infall into a thin-shell traversable wormhole exhibit a characteristic pulse-gap structure from repeated throat crossings and lie within reach of ground-based detectors at ~500 Mpc.
Domain wall annihilation imprints a two-peaked spectrum on induced gravitational waves via an early matter-dominated phase and entropy dilution.
Thick braneworlds feature fragile quasinormal mode spectra due to a butterfly effect but maintain a resilient early ringdown, keeping the standard gravitational wave fingerprint usable.
Spectral features imprinted by long-lived BSM particles on any primordial GWB directly determine the particles' mass and decay rate once the model and initial abundance are specified.
The gravitational wave background from supermassive black hole binaries has a universal heavy-tailed amplitude distribution with power-law index -4, causing divergent higher moments and dominance of the strongest signals by few loud sources.
Ward identities from large gauge symmetry impose model-independent constraints on renormalizing inflationary loops and non-perturbatively govern the infrared power spectrum evolution.
Horizon-AGN shows galaxy and black hole merger rates both rise with stellar mass and fall with redshift, peaking near z=2-3, establishing a direct evolutionary link from galaxy interactions to black hole coalescences.
K-inflation with non-canonical kinetic term G(φ) shifts α-attractor T-models and natural inflation into the Planck-ACT-LB-BK18 allowed region while satisfying Swampland conjectures and producing testable GW spectra.
Purely quadratic non-Gaussianity from tachyonic instability allows narrow curvature spectra to exponentially suppress primordial black hole overproduction via correlation coefficient ρ approaching -1 while retaining sizable scalar-induced gravitational waves.
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citing papers explorer
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Gravity Echoes from Supermassive Black Hole Binaries
Future microhertz detections combined with nanohertz pulsar terms can serve as gravity echoes to measure supermassive black hole binary inspiral rates from hundreds to thousands of years in the past.
-
Phase-resolved field-space distance bounds in ekpyrotic, bouncing and cyclic cosmologies
Phase-resolved scalar distance bounds are derived for ekpyrotic, bouncing, and cyclic cosmologies, yielding a master condition that lower-bounds ε_ek from remaining distance after conversion and bounce.
-
Self-acceleration of Hardening Binaries
Hardening binaries experience deterministic self-acceleration of their center of mass, induced precession, and plane rotation in uniform isotropic media, driving outward spiraling and eccentricity growth in all cases rather than circularization.
-
Forecasting graviton-mass constraints from the full covariance of PTA-astrometry ORF estimators
A full-covariance formalism for PTA-astrometry ORF estimators forecasts graviton-mass upper limits of 4.41e-24 eV/c2 for current-like setups and 0.48e-24 eV/c2 for SKA/Theia-like future setups, with astrometry adding significant power in the latter case.
-
Probing Supermassive Black Hole Mergers with Pulsar Timing Arrays
Pulsar timing arrays can probe supermassive black hole binaries that merged prior to observations via the pulsar term, with SKA potentially detecting a few such zombie binaries at SNR > 3.
-
Detecting Chiral Gravitational Wave Background with a Dipole Pulsar Timing Array
A dipole pulsar timing array detects chiral nanohertz gravitational waves and extends PTA sensitivity into the microhertz regime.
-
Gravitational wave signal and noise response of an optically levitated sensor in a Fabry-P\'erot cavity
A general relativistic derivation of gravitational wave response in an optically levitated cavity sensor reveals position-dependent strain sensitivity and suppressed input-mirror noise coupling.
-
Primordial Black Hole from Tensor-induced Density Fluctuation: First-order Phase Transitions and Domain Walls
Tensor perturbations from first-order phase transitions and domain wall annihilation induce curvature fluctuations at second order that form primordial black holes, allowing asteroid-mass PBHs to comprise all dark matter for specific parameter ranges with associated gravitational wave peaks in LISA,
-
Testing General Relativity with Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries
A framework is developed to test beyond-GR effects in nanohertz continuous waves from individual SMBHBs, deriving modified inter-pulsar correlations, antenna responses, and phase delays for three deviation classes, validated by injection-recovery simulations showing parameter recovery and no GR bias
-
Are PTA measurements sensitive to gravitational wave non-Gaussianities?
PTA statistical tests lose sensitivity to non-Gaussian GW features after decorrelation and cannot distinguish them model-agnostically.
-
High-Power AM-CW Lunar Laser Ranging as a $\mu$Hz SGWB Detector
AM-CW lunar laser ranging achieves μHz SGWB sensitivity of 5.29×10^{-9} D_cov (80 μm range uncertainty) or 2.07×10^{-9} D_cov (50 μm) over 5 years, with discovery possible if covariance degradation stays below ~3.6-13.7.
-
Gravitational Waves from a Black Hole Falling Radially into a Thin-Shell Traversable Wormhole
Analytic gravitational waveforms from radial test-particle infall into a thin-shell traversable wormhole exhibit a characteristic pulse-gap structure from repeated throat crossings and lie within reach of ground-based detectors at ~500 Mpc.
-
Imprint of domain wall annihilation on induced gravitational waves
Domain wall annihilation imprints a two-peaked spectrum on induced gravitational waves via an early matter-dominated phase and entropy dilution.
-
Spectral Butterfly Effect and Resilient Ringdown in Thick Braneworlds
Thick braneworlds feature fragile quasinormal mode spectra due to a butterfly effect but maintain a resilient early ringdown, keeping the standard gravitational wave fingerprint usable.
-
Irreducible Gravitational Wave Background as a Particle Detector
Spectral features imprinted by long-lived BSM particles on any primordial GWB directly determine the particles' mass and decay rate once the model and initial abundance are specified.
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The Heavy Tailed Non-Gaussianity of the Supermassive Black Hole Gravitational Wave Background
The gravitational wave background from supermassive black hole binaries has a universal heavy-tailed amplitude distribution with power-law index -4, causing divergent higher moments and dominance of the strongest signals by few loud sources.
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Fixing the Renormalization of Inflationary Loops via Ward Identities
Ward identities from large gauge symmetry impose model-independent constraints on renormalizing inflationary loops and non-perturbatively govern the infrared power spectrum evolution.
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One Merge to Rule Them All: From Galaxy Interactions to Black Hole Mergers Using Horizon-AGN
Horizon-AGN shows galaxy and black hole merger rates both rise with stellar mass and fall with redshift, peaking near z=2-3, establishing a direct evolutionary link from galaxy interactions to black hole coalescences.
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Reviving Motivated Inflationary Potentials with $K$-inflation in the light of ACT
K-inflation with non-canonical kinetic term G(φ) shifts α-attractor T-models and natural inflation into the Planck-ACT-LB-BK18 allowed region while satisfying Swampland conjectures and producing testable GW spectra.
-
Purely Quadratic Non-Gaussianity from Tachyonic Instability: Primordial Black Holes and Scalar-Induced Gravitational Waves
Purely quadratic non-Gaussianity from tachyonic instability allows narrow curvature spectra to exponentially suppress primordial black hole overproduction via correlation coefficient ρ approaching -1 while retaining sizable scalar-induced gravitational waves.
-
Hawking area law in quantum gravity
Exact Hawking area law from black hole mergers restricts quantum gravity to singular Ricci-flat or specific regular black holes in Stelle and nonlocal theories, derives the standard entropy-area law, and realizes Barrow fractal black holes.
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Reconstructing inflationary features on large scales using genetic algorithm
Genetic algorithm reconstructs single-field inflationary models with features in the scalar power spectrum that fit Planck 2018 CMB data better by Δχ² ≲ -10 and suggest alternative background parameters.
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Grand Unified Origin of Enhanced Scalar Couplings: Connecting Radiative Electroweak Symmetry Breaking to SO(10) Dynamics
SO(10) scalar threshold corrections generate the Higgs quartic enhancement factor k≈6 required by radiative electroweak symmetry breaking, placing the Landau pole at 1.5-2×10^16 GeV near the GUT scale.
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F-Term Hybrid Inflation with T-Model K\"ahler Geometry and Beyond
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Constraints on Ultralight Scalar and Dark Photon Dark Matter from PPTA-DR3 and EPTA-DR2
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Constraints on Einstein-aether gravity from the precision timing of PSR J1738+0333
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Precision Analysis for $\boldsymbol{H_0}$ Using Upcoming Multi-band Gravitational Wave Observations
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