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arxiv: 2511.09467 · v2 · submitted 2025-11-12 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO · gr-qc

Revisiting the Hubble tension problem in the framework of holographic dark energy

Jun-Xian Li , Shuang Wang This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-17 22:13 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO gr-qc
keywords holographic dark energyHubble tensioninfrared cutofffuture event horizonDESI DR2cosmological modelsBAO measurements
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The pith

Holographic dark energy models using the future event horizon as infrared cutoff can partially ease the Hubble tension, while those using the Hubble scale cannot.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper tests six holographic dark energy models drawn from four categories to see which can reduce the mismatch between early-universe and late-universe measurements of the expansion rate. It combines new DESI DR2 baryon acoustic oscillation data with Planck cosmic microwave background priors and three different type Ia supernova catalogs. Models that set the infrared cutoff to the Hubble scale or combinations involving it leave the tension intact. Models that instead tie the cutoff to the future event horizon reduce the tension by some amount. The pattern appears in every model variant and every data combination examined.

Core claim

HDE models that employ the Hubble scale or its combinations as the infrared cutoff cannot alleviate the Hubble tension problem. In contrast, HDE models that employ the future event horizon as the IR cutoff can partially mitigate the Hubble tension problem. These two conclusions remain unchanged when different theoretical HDE models are adopted and when different observational data sets are used.

What carries the argument

The infrared cutoff choice that defines the holographic dark energy density, compared across Hubble-scale versus future-event-horizon prescriptions.

If this is right

  • Future-event-horizon HDE variants shift the inferred Hubble constant closer to local measurements while remaining consistent with current BAO and CMB data.
  • The distinction between cutoff types persists across all tested supernova compilations and alternative BAO measurements.
  • Further exploration of holographic dark energy should focus on models whose cutoff incorporates the future boundary of the universe.
  • The results are insensitive to the precise theoretical variant within each cutoff category.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The cutoff dependence may guide which holographic models to test first with next-generation surveys that reach higher redshift or add new observables.
  • Similar cutoff logic could be examined in other dark-energy constructions that link energy density to a cosmic scale.
  • If the pattern holds, model builders gain a concrete criterion for selecting infrared cutoffs when addressing expansion-rate discrepancies.

Load-bearing premise

The six chosen HDE models adequately represent all four categories and the selected data combinations suffice to reach general statements about tension alleviation.

What would settle it

A future high-precision Hubble constant measurement from an independent probe that shows no reduction in tension for future-event-horizon HDE models when the same data combinations are analyzed.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2511.09467 by Jun-Xian Li, Shuang Wang.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: FIG. 1. One-dimensional posterior distributions and two [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: FIG. 2. One-dimensional posterior distributions and two [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: FIG. 3. One-dimensional posterior distributions and two [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: FIG. 5. One-dimensional posterior distributions and two [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: FIG. 6. One-dimensional posterior distributions and two [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: FIG. 7. One-dimensional marginalized posterior distribu [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: FIG. 8. One-dimensional marginalized posterior dis [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: FIG. 10. One-dimensional marginalized posterior distri [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_10.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

The Hubble tension problem is one of the most significant challenges in modern cosmology. In this paper, we study the Hubble tension problem in the framework of holographic dark energy (HDE). To perform a systematic and comprehensive analysis, we select six representative theoretical models from all four categories of HDE. For the observational data, we adopt the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) along with a collection of alternative BAO measurements, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) distance priors from $Planck$ 2018, and type Ia supernovae (SN) data from the PantheonPlus, Union3, and DESY5 compilations. We find that HDE models that employ the Hubble scale or its combinations as the infrared (IR) cutoff cannot alleviate the Hubble tension problem. In contrast, HDE models that employ the future event horizon as the IR cutoff can partially mitigate the Hubble tension problem. It must be stressed that these two key conclusions hold true for cases of adopting different theoretical HDE models and different observational data. Our findings advocate for further exploration of HDE models using other types of cosmological observations.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper claims that holographic dark energy (HDE) models employing the Hubble scale or its combinations as the infrared cutoff cannot alleviate the Hubble tension, whereas those using the future event horizon as the IR cutoff can partially mitigate it. This conclusion is drawn from analyses of six representative HDE models using BAO data from DESI DR2 and alternatives, Planck CMB priors, and SN data from PantheonPlus, Union3, and DESY5, and is asserted to hold across different models and datasets.

Significance. If the results are robust, this systematic study highlights the critical role of the IR cutoff choice in HDE models for addressing the Hubble tension. It encourages further investigation with other cosmological observations. The inclusion of multiple datasets is positive, though the handling of covariances needs verification.

major comments (2)
  1. [Model selection] The claim that the conclusions hold for different theoretical HDE models and all four categories rests on the selection of six models; however, the manuscript does not demonstrate that these are representative, as alternative functional forms or evolving parameters within categories might yield different best-fit H0 and tension metrics, undermining the general dichotomy.
  2. [Results and fits] The central claim relies on parameter fits where the HDE constant c is determined from the same data used to assess tension relief; without explicit documentation of error budgets, covariance handling, or post-fit tension metrics (e.g., in tables of best-fit parameters), the soundness of the alleviation conclusions is difficult to evaluate.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract could quantify what 'partially mitigate' means, e.g., by how much the tension is reduced in terms of sigma.
  2. [Figures] Ensure that plots of expansion history or posterior contours clearly indicate the Hubble tension level for comparison.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the careful reading of our manuscript and the constructive comments. We address each major comment below and indicate the revisions we will make to strengthen the presentation.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Model selection] The claim that the conclusions hold for different theoretical HDE models and all four categories rests on the selection of six models; however, the manuscript does not demonstrate that these are representative, as alternative functional forms or evolving parameters within categories might yield different best-fit H0 and tension metrics, undermining the general dichotomy.

    Authors: The six models were selected because they constitute the standard, widely adopted representatives of the four established categories of HDE models, as classified by the choice of IR cutoff (Hubble scale, future event horizon, and linear combinations thereof). These forms are the ones most frequently analyzed in the existing literature and exhibit the characteristic dynamical behaviors of each category. The consistent pattern we obtain across all six models and multiple dataset combinations supports the reported dichotomy. We acknowledge that the manuscript could more explicitly justify this selection. In the revised version we will add a short subsection in Section 2 that explains the rationale for choosing these particular models, references their prevalence in prior studies, and notes the limitation that other functional forms or parameterizations remain to be explored in future work. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Results and fits] The central claim relies on parameter fits where the HDE constant c is determined from the same data used to assess tension relief; without explicit documentation of error budgets, covariance handling, or post-fit tension metrics (e.g., in tables of best-fit parameters), the soundness of the alleviation conclusions is difficult to evaluate.

    Authors: Tables 1–6 of the manuscript already report the best-fit values together with 1σ uncertainties for all cosmological parameters, including the HDE parameter c and H0, for every model–dataset combination. The likelihood analysis incorporates the full covariance matrices supplied with the DESI DR2 BAO, Planck CMB distance priors, and the three SN compilations. To improve transparency we will (i) expand the methods section with an explicit description of the error budget and covariance treatment, (ii) add a supplementary table (or additional columns) that lists the derived tension metrics (e.g., the H0 discrepancy in units of σ relative to the local measurement), and (iii) state clearly that c is fitted jointly with the other parameters from the same data. These changes will make the quantitative assessment of tension relief straightforward to verify. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity in the HDE model analysis for Hubble tension.

full rationale

The paper performs a standard cosmological parameter fitting exercise across six representative HDE models drawn from four IR-cutoff categories, using multiple independent datasets (DESI DR2 BAO plus alternatives, Planck distance priors, and three SN compilations). The central claims—that Hubble-scale cutoffs fail to alleviate tension while future-event-horizon cutoffs partially succeed—are direct numerical outcomes of the best-fit H0 values and tension metrics obtained from those fits. No step reduces by construction to a self-definition, a fitted parameter renamed as a prediction, or a load-bearing self-citation chain; the derivation remains self-contained and externally falsifiable against the supplied data.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The analysis assumes standard flat FLRW background, the holographic bound applied to dark energy, and that tension alleviation can be diagnosed from shifts in the fitted H0 value. Free parameters include the HDE constant c and usual cosmological densities; no new entities are postulated.

free parameters (1)
  • HDE parameter c
    Dimensionless constant that sets the amplitude of holographic dark energy density; fitted to data in each model.
axioms (2)
  • standard math Standard flat FLRW metric and Friedmann equations govern background expansion
    Invoked implicitly when fitting distance priors and BAO scales.
  • domain assumption Holographic principle supplies an infrared cutoff that determines dark-energy density
    Core modeling choice for all six HDE variants.

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Forward citations

Cited by 2 Pith papers

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Reference graph

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