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Gravitational-wave parameter estimation with autoregressive neural network flows

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arxiv 2002.07656 v1 pith:S4VA7GW5 submitted 2020-02-18 astro-ph.IM cs.LGgr-qcstat.ML

Gravitational-wave parameter estimation with autoregressive neural network flows

classification astro-ph.IM cs.LGgr-qcstat.ML
keywords autoregressivedistributionmodeldataflowsgravitational-waveparameterparameters
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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We introduce the use of autoregressive normalizing flows for rapid likelihood-free inference of binary black hole system parameters from gravitational-wave data with deep neural networks. A normalizing flow is an invertible mapping on a sample space that can be used to induce a transformation from a simple probability distribution to a more complex one: if the simple distribution can be rapidly sampled and its density evaluated, then so can the complex distribution. Our first application to gravitational waves uses an autoregressive flow, conditioned on detector strain data, to map a multivariate standard normal distribution into the posterior distribution over system parameters. We train the model on artificial strain data consisting of IMRPhenomPv2 waveforms drawn from a five-parameter $(m_1, m_2, \phi_0, t_c, d_L)$ prior and stationary Gaussian noise realizations with a fixed power spectral density. This gives performance comparable to current best deep-learning approaches to gravitational-wave parameter estimation. We then build a more powerful latent variable model by incorporating autoregressive flows within the variational autoencoder framework. This model has performance comparable to Markov chain Monte Carlo and, in particular, successfully models the multimodal $\phi_0$ posterior. Finally, we train the autoregressive latent variable model on an expanded parameter space, including also aligned spins $(\chi_{1z}, \chi_{2z})$ and binary inclination $\theta_{JN}$, and show that all parameters and degeneracies are well-recovered. In all cases, sampling is extremely fast, requiring less than two seconds to draw $10^4$ posterior samples.

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Forward citations

Cited by 12 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

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  2. Identifying lensed gravitational waves with physics-informed posterior learning

    gr-qc 2026-07 conditional novelty 6.0

    Fusing a simulation-trained common-source mass posterior with waveform features raises lensed-event detection efficiency from 20.8% to 35.2% at 1% false-positive rate and lowers the SNR for 50% efficiency from 45.3 to 33.5.

  3. Flow-Based Surrogates for High-Dimensional Likelihoods in Experimental Neutrino Physics

    hep-ex 2026-07 accept novelty 6.0

    A hybrid coupling-plus-autoregressive normalizing flow reproduces a 110-parameter non-Gaussian near-detector likelihood at 98% relative ESS versus ~5% for the post-fit Gaussian, matching MCMC while remaining evaluable...

  4. Flow-Based Surrogates for High-Dimensional Likelihoods in Experimental Neutrino Physics

    hep-ex 2026-07 accept novelty 6.0

    A hybrid coupling-plus-autoregressive normalizing flow trained on a 110-parameter T2K-like near-detector likelihood reaches 98% relative ESS versus 5% for the post-fit Gaussian and matches MCMC flux predictions.

  5. Flexible Gravitational-Wave Parameter Estimation with Transformers

    gr-qc 2025-12 conditional novelty 6.0

    Dingo-T1 is one transformer model that adapts at inference to arbitrary detector subsets and frequency cuts for gravitational-wave parameter estimation.

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  7. Artifact-Conditioned Interval Diagnostics for Flow-Matching Neural Posterior Estimation in a Controlled Gravitational-Wave Benchmark

    astro-ph.IM 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    In a controlled binary-black-hole benchmark, soft learned artifact-aware interval rescaling (LAIR) reduces marginal calibration error for frequency masks from 0.1195 to 0.0672 but is not uniformly better than raw inte...

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    astro-ph.CO 2025-11 conditional novelty 5.0

    A neural posterior estimator trained on wave-optics-microlensed gravitational-wave signals recovers source and lens parameters and Bayes factors consistent with Bilby, about 10 times faster.

  10. Assessment of normalizing flows for parameter estimation on time-frequency representations of gravitational-wave data

    gr-qc 2025-05 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    GP15 maps BBH spectrograms to parameter posteriors via residual networks and normalizing flows, producing results consistent with LVK analyses on GWTC-2.1 and GWTC-3 events while running in seconds.

  11. O5 dark-siren forecasts for modified GW propagation: background robustness of the $\Xi$ posterior

    astro-ph.CO 2026-07 accept novelty 4.0

    For 300 pure dark sirens the Ξ posterior is 0.9783±0.3548 and invariant under Ω_m ∈ [0.20,0.35] because H0 absorbs the distance degeneracy.

  12. Not too close! Evaluating the impact of the baseline on the localization of binary black holes by next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

    gr-qc 2026-04 conditional novelty 4.0

    Baselines of 8-11 ms light travel time for two CE detectors provide a reasonable compromise for BBH sky localization, with third detectors eliminating multimodality for most or all events.