Assessment of Super- and Hyper-Kamiokande Sensitivity to the DSNB

Andr\'e de Gouv\^ea; Iv\'an Mart\'inez-Soler; Pablo Blanco-Mas

REVIEW

Assessment of Super- and Hyper-Kamiokande Sensitivity to the DSNB

Pablo Blanco-Mas, André de Gouvêa, Iván Martínez-Soler

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Submitted 15 Sep 2026 · 49 references

Pith's verdict: A solid, methodical sensitivity study that validates against real SK data and shows HK could hit 5σ for DSNB—but the atmospheric normalization uncertainty at sub-100 MeV deserves a harder look.

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CitationAndr\'e de Gouv\^ea, Iv\'an Mart\'inez-Soler, Pablo Blanco-Mas. "Assessment of Super- and Hyper-Kamiokande Sensitivity to the DSNB." arXiv:2609.17705 (2026). https://pith.science/paper/LWCXHWHA

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Editor's note

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This paper does what a sensitivity study should: build a simulation that reproduces published SK results, then project forward. The main advance is a validated framework that includes full three-flavor oscillations and detailed atmospheric propagation, applied to both SK and HK. The central claim—that HK can reject no-DSNB at Δχ²≈22 in ten years—is plausible and honestly caveated against the reference flux model.

The simulation is well-constructed. The FLUKA atmospheric fluxes are cross-checked against Honda and Battistoni, the NuWro cross-sections match theory, and the event rates reproduce SK-VI and SK-VII data within uncertainties. The authors systematically test the impact of oscillations, spallation backgrounds, and systematic assumptions. They also provide useful appendices with flux validation and oscillation probabilities. This is reproducible work that the community can build on.

The stress-test concern about the 25% atmospheric normalization uncertainty deserves more attention than the paper gives it. At sub-100 MeV, the muon decay-at-rest component produces a bump around 30 MeV (Appendix A), and its modelling uncertainty may be larger than what is extrapolated from higher-energy SK analyses. The paper states the mechanisms are the same, which is reasonable but not validated for this energy region. A simple test—e.g., inflating the normalization uncertainty to 35% or 50% and recomputing the HK Δχ²—would directly address whether the 5σ claim is robust. As written, the projected significance carries an unquantified model risk from this assumption. This is not a fatal flaw, but it weakens the headline claim.

Other soft spots: the DSNB flux is tied to one reference model (Horiuchi 2009), and the results shift if the true flux is smaller or has a different spectral shape. The authors note this, so it’s a caveat rather than a flaw. The oscillation parameter sensitivity in Appendix D is limited and not a major part of the paper.

Who is this for? Neutrino phenomenologists and experimentalists planning DSNB searches. The paper is a serious, careful study that improves on earlier projections. It deserves peer review. If I were the referee, I would ask for a robustness test of the atmospheric normalization assumption, but the core simulation and conclusions are solid otherwise.

Referee report

Major objections (1)

[§6.1, §6.3, Fig. 5] The HK projection (Δχ² ≈ 22 for no-DSNB) relies on a 25% overall normalization uncertainty for the atmospheric neutrino flux, taken from higher-energy SK analyses (Ref. [36]). The sub-100 MeV region relevant for the DSNB contains a significant contribution from muon decay at rest (noted in Appendix A as a 'bump' around 30 MeV), whose modelling may carry larger theoretical uncertainties. The paper does not test how the projected Δχ² changes if the normalization uncertainty is increased to, e.g., 35% or 50%. Since the χ² profile profiles over this nuisance parameter, a larger uncertainty would reduce the contrast between the signal+background and background-only hypotheses, potentially lowering the significance. The authors should perform this sensitivity test and report the results, or provide quantitative justification that the 25% value is conservative for this energy range.

Minor objections (4)

[Fig. 1 caption] The caption writes 'Fluka' but the simulated code is introduced as 'FLUKA' in Section 3. Please standardize to 'FLUKA' throughout.
[Appendix A] The muon-decay-at-rest 'bump' around 30 MeV is described but not connected to the choice of the 25% normalization systematic in the main analysis. A brief note linking this feature to the systematic uncertainty would help readers assess the validity of the extrapolation.
[References] Several entries (e.g., [2], [3]) list only arXiv IDs without a journal reference where available; please check that all published papers are cited in the final journal format and that unpublished preprints are clearly marked.
[§3] After introducing 'FLUKA' at the start of the section, later the text alternates between 'Fluka' and 'FLUKA'. Please use one consistent spelling, preferably 'FLUKA'.

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The paper

The paper claims

Hyper-Kamiokande can detect the diffuse supernova neutrino background at nearly five-sigma significance within ten years of data-taking.

The reading

This paper assesses the sensitivity of the Super-Kamiokande and Hyper-Kamiokande water Cherenkov detectors to the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB), the steady flux of neutrinos from all past core-collapse supernovae. Using a validated simulation framework that reproduces current SK results, the authors project that ten years of Hyper-Kamiokande data can reject the no-DSNB hypothesis at almost the five-sigma level (Δχ² ≃ 22), assuming the DSNB flux is not significantly lower than the reference model. In contrast, Super-Kamiokande will only provide a weak hint even with ten years of exposure. The paper also demonstrates that proper modeling of atmospheric neutrino oscillations is essential for accurate sensitivity projections.

What carries the argument

The central machinery is the binned Poissonian χ² analysis comparing observed and predicted event rates in reconstructed lepton energy bins, separated by the number of tagged neutrons (n=1 vs. n≠1), for SK and HK exposures. The analysis relies on validated simulations of atmospheric neutrino fluxes using FLUKA, neutrino interaction simulations using NuWro, and full three-flavor oscillation probabilities computed with the PREM Earth model and atmospheric propagation. The neutron-tagging capability (gadolinium loading) is critical for signal-background discrimination.

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper's central discovery is that Hyper-Kamiokande, with a fiducial volume eight times that of Super-Kamiokande and comparable neutron-tagging capabilities, can achieve a statistically significant detection of the DSNB within ten years. Using a detailed simulation of the atmospheric neutrino background that includes full three-flavor oscillations and neutrino propagation through the Earth's atmosphere, the authors find that the no-DSNB hypothesis can be excluded at Δχ² ≃ 22 (almost five sigma) for a DSNB flux consistent with the Horiuchi et al. (2009) reference model. The paper also establishes that an accurate treatment of neutrino oscillations, particularly for down-going atmospheric neutrinos with baselines comparable to the Δm²₂₁ oscillation length, is necessary to avoid biases in the inferred DSNB flux.

Load-bearing premise

The DSNB flux normalization is not significantly lower than the Horiuchi et al. (2009) reference model; if the true flux is much smaller, Hyper-Kamiokande will not achieve five-sigma detection within ten years.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

With ten years of data, Hyper-Kamiokande can provide the first robust detection of the DSNB, opening a new observational window into the integrated core-collapse supernova rate and the cosmic star formation history.
If the DSNB flux is significantly lower than the reference model, Hyper-Kamiokande may still not achieve five-sigma detection within ten years, motivating longer exposures or larger detectors.
Accurate modeling of atmospheric neutrino oscillations is a prerequisite for measuring the DSNB flux and its spectral shape; simplified treatments (e.g., averaged oscillations) can bias the inferred flux by up to tens of percent.
Hyper-Kamiokande can also constrain the effective temperature of the DSNB spectrum, providing information on the neutrino emission temperatures of supernovae and the effects of black-hole formation.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

If Hyper-Kamiokande detects the DSNB, it could enable a measurement of the local core-collapse supernova rate that is independent of optical surveys, testing the completeness of star formation history models.
The sensitivity to neutrino oscillation parameters (sin²θ₂₃) from DSNB-related event samples is limited; future improvements would require reduced atmospheric flux uncertainties and directional information.
The paper's results suggest that next-generation water Cherenkov detectors with even larger volumes could detect the DSNB with high statistical significance within a few years, enabling detailed spectral and flavor studies.

Original abstract

The detection of the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB) is one of the main goals of the current and the next generation of neutrino experiments. Based on results published by the Super-Kamiokande (SK) collaboration, we study the sensitivity of current and future water Cherenkov detectors to the DSNB. We reproduce current constraints and estimate the sensitivity to the DSNB of ten years of SK data and of a next-generation water-Cherenkov detector like Hyper-Kamiokande (HK). We find that, even with increased exposure, SK's sensitivity is relatively modest, while HK has the potential to deliver a statistically significant discovery of the DSNB in ten years. Along the way, we perform a detailed study of the relevant atmospheric neutrino backgrounds and argue that an accurate treatment of neutrino oscillations and propagation is essential when it comes to properly inferring the sensitivity to the DSNB and measuring its flux.

The compiled record

The paper's own sentences, arranged, kept beside the review and separate from it. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.

Compiled by classifier-1.13.0 via TypeSafe API, question bank abstract-p1-20260923, 2026-09-23: 1 request, 4,399 input tokens.

What the abstract itself states, as probabilities: claims first 0.03 · states limitation 0.44 · human participants 0.02 · controlled comparison 0.18 · randomized assignment 0.01 · states quantitative result 0.15 · compares with prior results 0.87 · mentions code or data availability 0.02.

The abstract, sentence by sentence

arXiv listing abstract v1. Results and the main claim are underlined; show every role.

The detection of the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB) is one of the main goals of the current and the next generation of neutrino experiments. Based on results published by the Super-Kamiokande (SK) collaboration, we study the sensitivity of current and future water Cherenkov detectors to the DSNB. We reproduce current constraints and estimate the sensitivity to the DSNB of ten years of SK data and of a next-generation water-Cherenkov detector like Hyper-Kamiokande (HK). We find that, even with increased exposure, SK's sensitivity is relatively modest, while HK has the potential to deliver a statistically significant discovery of the DSNB in ten years. Along the way, we perform a detailed study of the relevant atmospheric neutrino backgrounds and argue that an accurate treatment of neutrino oscillations and propagation is essential when it comes to properly inferring the sensitivity to the DSNB and measuring its flux.

background contribution method result interpretation main claim

What the classifier reports for each sentence. The number is the probability it gave the label.
#	sentence	role	the authors' own work	states the main conclusion	strength
s0	The detection of the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB) is one of the main goals of the current and the next generation of neutrino experiments.	background 1.00	0.04	0.03	asserted 1.00
s1	Based on results published by the Super-Kamiokande (SK) collaboration, we study the sensitivity of current and future water Cherenkov detectors to the DSNB.	contribution 0.68	0.58	0.03	asserted 0.87
s2	We reproduce current constraints and estimate the sensitivity to the DSNB of ten years of SK data and of a next-generation water-Cherenkov detector like Hyper-Kamiokande (HK).	contribution 0.87	0.88	0.05	asserted 0.90
s3	We find that, even with increased exposure, SK's sensitivity is relatively modest, while HK has the potential to deliver a statistically significant discovery of the DSNB in ten years.	result 0.98	0.95	0.88	asserted 0.87
s4	Along the way, we perform a detailed study of the relevant atmospheric neutrino backgrounds and argue that an accurate treatment of neutrino oscillations and propagation is essential when it comes to properly inferring the sensitivity to the DSNB and measuring its flux.	contribution 0.66	0.90	0.05	asserted 0.99

What kind of paper the classifier reports this is: simulation study 0.95 · evidence from analysis of existing data 0.67.

What was examined, and what was not

sources read

arXiv listing abstract v1

not examined

full text
figures and tables
references and citing sentences
relations to other papers

levels run

P abstract

not run

S sections
T body sentences
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Every quoted sentence on this record is the authors'. Every label is from Pith's closed vocabulary, with the probability shown beside it. Every number in the measurements table is the authors', checked by code. Record as JSON

Figures

**Figure 1.** FIG. 1. Unoscillated atmospheric neutrino and antineutrino

**Figure 3.** FIG. 3. Event distributions for SK-VI and SK-VII as a function of the reconstructed lepton energy. The bottom (top) panels

**Figure 4.** FIG. 4. SK-VI, SK-VII, and combined analyses including the

**Figure 9.** FIG. 9. Sensitivity to the DSNB assuming current SK data

**Figure 10.** depicts the ratio of the νe flux underground relative to the flux at the surface. The silicon layer allows the remaining mesons to decay, increasing the number of measured neutrinos. Furthermore, for neutrino energies around 30 MeV, there is a “bump” in the flux of underground neutrinos caused by high-energy muons reaching the ground and decaying at rest

**Figure 11.** FIG. 11. Comparison of electron neutrino fluxes at various heights incident perpendicular (left) or tangential (right) to the

**Figure 12.** FIG. 12. Comparison between our calculated underground

**Figure 13.** FIG. 13. Oscillograms for sub-GeV antineutrinos including the electron-antineutrino survival probabilities, the muon antineu

**Figure 14.** FIG. 14. Combined analysis of the SK-IV, V, VI, VII, VII.5,

**Figure 15.** FIG. 15. Joint constraints on sin

Showing 10 of the paper's 15 figures. See all figures in the PDF ↗ Figures reproduced from arXiv:2609.17705 by the authors.

References

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RESUL TS This section contains our main results. We first vali- date our simulation framework by reproducing the cur- rent sensitivity of SK to the DSNB. We then use this validated setup to project the sensitivity of future exper- iments, including SK after ten years of exposure and ten years of HK data. Finally, we quantify the impact of neutrino oscilla...

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CONCLUSIONS The observation of the DSNB would open a new win- dow for particle astrophysics. While current data pub- lished by SK do not show statistically significant evidence 4 Note that we adopt a single model for the atmospheric density distribution [38]. This conclusion may change when considering alternative models. 9 for the existence of the DSNB, ...

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank Sergio Palomares-Ruiz for useful discussions. PBM would like to thank IPPP and CERN for hospitality and support during his visits, where part of this work was carried out. The work of PBM is supported by the Spanish MIU through the National Program FPU (grant number FPU22/03600). This work has been partially supporte...

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Discussion

Disagree with the review, or know something it missed? Leave a comment, highlight any passage above to comment on it, or challenge this review formally.

[1] [36]

Tomasz Golan, Cezary Juszczak, and Jan T. Sobczyk, “Final State Interactions Effects in Neutrino- Nucleus Interactions,” Phys. Rev. C86, 015505 (2012), arXiv:1202.4197 [nucl-th]

View on Pith Pith review arXiv 2012

[2] [1]

INTRODUCTION Most of the energy released in a core-collapse super- nova (SN) explosion is in the form of neutrinos. These carry invaluable information about the details of these extraordinary phenomena in their flavor, energy, and time distributions, assuming they can be detected and characterized here on Earth. However, the SN rate in our galaxy is rathe...

View on Pith Pith review arXiv 2026

[3] [2]

THE DSNB FLUX The DSNB flux consists of all neutrinos emitted in core-collapse supernovae throughout the history of the Universe. We can parametrize this flux as [5] Φν(E) = Z zmax 0 dz H(z) RCCSN(z)Fν(E′),(1) where R CCSN is the star formation rate andH(z) is the Hubble function that parametrizes the expansion of the Universe. The neutrino energy is red-...

View on Pith

[4] [3]

A TMOSPHERIC NEUTRINO FLUX The atmospheric neutrino flux at tens of MeV consti- tutes one of the dominant and irreducible backgrounds for DSNB searches. An accurate determination of its normalization, flavor composition, and spectral shape is therefore essential for the extraction of a potential DSNB signal. A quantitative description of this flux require...

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FLA VOR OSCILLA TION The neutrino fluxes depicted in Fig. 1 do not take into account neutrino masses and lepton mixing. SK has stud- ied in detail the impact of flavor oscillations on the at- mospheric neutrino flux [22]. In all recent analyses, oscil- lations are implemented within a full three-flavor frame- work as a function of energy and zenith angle....

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EVENT SIMULA TION The expected number of observed events is propor- tional to the size of the detector, the amount of time ded- icated to collecting the data, and the convolution of the neutrino flux, the interaction cross section, and the detec- tor efficiency. The number of charged leptons (electrons and positrons) in thei-th reconstructed charged-lepto...

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RESUL TS This section contains our main results. We first vali- date our simulation framework by reproducing the cur- rent sensitivity of SK to the DSNB. We then use this validated setup to project the sensitivity of future exper- iments, including SK after ten years of exposure and ten years of HK data. Finally, we quantify the impact of neutrino oscilla...

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CONCLUSIONS The observation of the DSNB would open a new win- dow for particle astrophysics. While current data pub- lished by SK do not show statistically significant evidence 4 Note that we adopt a single model for the atmospheric density distribution [38]. This conclusion may change when considering alternative models. 9 for the existence of the DSNB, ...

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank Sergio Palomares-Ruiz for useful discussions. PBM would like to thank IPPP and CERN for hospitality and support during his visits, where part of this work was carried out. The work of PBM is supported by the Spanish MIU through the National Program FPU (grant number FPU22/03600). This work has been partially supporte...

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