Pith. sign in

REVIEW 12 cited by

ETSformer: Exponential Smoothing Transformers for Time-series Forecasting

Not yet reviewed by Pith; the record is open.

This paper has not been read by Pith yet. Machine review is queued; the pith claim, tier, and objections will appear here once it completes.

SPECIMEN: schema-true, not a live event

T0 review · schema-true

One-sentence machine reading of the paper's core claim.

pith:XXXXXXXX · record.json · timestamp

arxiv 2202.01381 v2 pith:P5IFNWJ6 submitted 2022-02-03 cs.LG

ETSformer: Exponential Smoothing Transformers for Time-series Forecasting

classification cs.LG
keywords time-seriesforecastingtransformersexponentialsmoothingetsformerarchitectureattention
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
0 comments
read the original abstract

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series data and thus suffer some fundamental limitations, e.g., they generally lack of decomposition capability and interpretability, and are neither effective nor efficient for long-term forecasting. In this paper, we propose ETSFormer, a novel time-series Transformer architecture, which exploits the principle of exponential smoothing in improving Transformers for time-series forecasting. In particular, inspired by the classical exponential smoothing methods in time-series forecasting, we propose the novel exponential smoothing attention (ESA) and frequency attention (FA) to replace the self-attention mechanism in vanilla Transformers, thus improving both accuracy and efficiency. Based on these, we redesign the Transformer architecture with modular decomposition blocks such that it can learn to decompose the time-series data into interpretable time-series components such as level, growth and seasonality. Extensive experiments on various time-series benchmarks validate the efficacy and advantages of the proposed method. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/ETSformer.

discussion (0)

Sign in with ORCID, Apple, or X to comment. Anyone can read and Pith papers without signing in.

Forward citations

Cited by 12 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

  1. Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models

    cs.LG 2023-10 conditional novelty 7.0

    Time-LLM reprograms frozen LLMs for time series forecasting via text prototypes and Prompt-as-Prefix, outperforming specialized models in standard, few-shot, and zero-shot settings.

  2. Beyond Holistic Models: Systematic Component-level Benchmarking of Deep Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

    cs.LG 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    TSCOMP is the first large-scale benchmark that deconstructs deep multivariate time series forecasters into fine-grained components, builds a corpus of over 20,000 evaluations, and shows that corpus-driven component se...

  3. Exploring the Potential of Probabilistic Transformer for Time Series Modeling: A Report on the ST-PT Framework

    cs.LG 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    ST-PT turns transformers into explicit factor graphs for time series, enabling structural injection of symbolic priors, per-sample conditional generation, and principled latent autoregressive forecasting via MFVI iterations.

  4. AlphaCast: A Human Wisdom-LLM Intelligence Co-Reasoning Framework for Interactive Time Series Forecasting

    cs.AI 2025-11 conditional novelty 6.0

    AlphaCast is a training-free LLM framework that performs interactive multi-stage reasoning for time series forecasting by integrating feature extraction, knowledge bases, case libraries, and contextual pools.

  5. AutoPV: Automatically Design Your Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Model

    cs.LG 2024-08 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    AutoPV applies neural architecture search with a custom search space drawn from time series forecasting and photovoltaic models to automatically produce architectures that outperform predefined state-of-the-art models...

  6. PaP-NF: Probabilistic Long-Term Time Series Forecasting via Prefix-as-Prompt Reprogramming and Normalizing Flows

    cs.LG 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    PaP-NF uses prefix-as-prompt reprogramming of a frozen LLM to extract global context that conditions a normalizing flow decoder, producing probabilistic long-term time series forecasts evaluated by CRPS.

  7. MambaSL: Exploring Single-Layer Mamba for Time Series Classification

    cs.LG 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    A single-layer Mamba variant with targeted redesigns sets new state-of-the-art average performance on all 30 UEA time series classification datasets under a unified reproducible protocol.

  8. MSTN: A Lightweight and Fast Model for General TimeSeries Analysis

    cs.LG 2025-11 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    MSTN introduces a lightweight multi-scale temporal network using convolutional encoding, recurrent or attention-based modeling, and gated fusion to achieve claimed state-of-the-art results on 21 of 27 time series benc...

  9. Revisiting Long-term Time Series Forecasting: An Investigation on Linear Mapping

    cs.LG 2023-05 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    Affine mapping dominates LTSF benchmarks by learning similar input-to-output transition matrices, captures periodic signals well but struggles with non-periodic or cross-channel varying periods; reversible normalizati...

  10. Interpretable Physics-Informed Load Forecasting for U.S. Grid Resilience: SHAP-Guided Ensemble Validation in Hybrid Deep Learning Under Extreme Weather

    cs.LG 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 4.0

    A hybrid deep learning model with physics regularization and SHAP analysis achieves 1.18% MAPE on ERCOT load data and up to 40.5% better performance on extreme events than its individual branches.

  11. MSTN: A Lightweight and Fast Model for General TimeSeries Analysis

    cs.LG 2025-11 unverdicted novelty 4.0

    MSTN is a lightweight hybrid model that reports new state-of-the-art results on 33 of 40 time series benchmarks for imputation, forecasting, and classification while using under one million parameters and sub-second i...

  12. Adaptive Financial Transformer with Regime-Gated Attention for Stock Return Prediction

    cs.LG 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 3.0

    Proposes Adaptive Financial Transformer with regime-gated attention and a composite loss to predict stock returns while claiming to fix backtesting issues and reduce complexity by 15.2%.