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arxiv: 2606.31281 · v1 · pith:YKZ7UOONnew · submitted 2026-06-30 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.SR

The HST/WFC3 Transmission Spectrum of AU Mic b Part I: An Atmosphere Obscured by Contamination and Systematics

William C. Waalkes , Peter Gao , Elisabeth Newton , Brett M. Morris , Zachory K. Berta-Thompson , Hannah R. Wakeford , Lili Alderson , Andrew W. Mann
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Peter Plavchan Patrick J. Lowrance Natasha E. Batalha Eric D. Lopez Roxana Lupu
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Pith reviewed 2026-07-01 03:48 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.SR
keywords AU Mic btransmission spectroscopyexoplanet atmosphereHST WFC3transit light source effectstellar spotsM dwarfyoung exoplanet
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The pith

The transmission spectrum of AU Mic b is dominated by the transit light source effect from its host star's spots, leaving only weak constraints on its atmosphere.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This paper presents the near-infrared transmission spectrum of the young exoplanet AU Mic b observed with HST. The observations suffer from instrumental issues and strong stellar activity on the M dwarf host. By modeling the stellar spectral energy distribution outside of transit, the authors separate the effects of photosphere and spots. Bayesian retrievals then show that the spectrum is best explained by the TLS effect rather than atmospheric absorption, with the data favoring a small atmospheric scale height.

Core claim

Using decomposition of the out-of-transit stellar SED, the photospheric temperature is 3891±37 K, spot temperature 3020±69 K, and spot filling factor 0.33±0.05. Bayesian atmospheric retrievals indicate the spectrum is dominated by the TLS effect, with weak atmospheric constraints and a preferred scale height of less than 185 km at 3σ. Extrapolation shows TLS dominates atmospheric features at optical and infrared wavelengths.

What carries the argument

The transit light source (TLS) effect, arising from the difference in brightness between the unocculted stellar photosphere and spots during transit, which alters the apparent transit depth.

If this is right

  • The TLS effect will dominate the transmission spectrum of AU Mic b at optical and infrared wavelengths.
  • The planet's atmosphere has a relatively small scale height, implying limited extent or high mean molecular weight.
  • Stellar activity must be carefully modeled to extract atmospheric signals from transmission spectra of active M dwarfs.
  • Weak atmospheric constraints mean current data cannot distinguish between different atmospheric compositions for AU Mic b.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Similar young planets around active stars may require even more sophisticated corrections for TLS to reveal their atmospheres.
  • Future observations at wavelengths where TLS is minimal could still be affected if spot properties vary.
  • Improved modeling of stellar variability could enable detection of escaping hydrogen or other features hinted at in prior observations.

Load-bearing premise

The decomposition of the out-of-transit stellar SED accurately captures the photospheric and spot properties that affect the in-transit observations.

What would settle it

An observation of the transmission spectrum at a wavelength where the TLS effect is predicted to be strong but atmospheric features are expected to appear would show a mismatch if the atmospheric signal is detected instead.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.31281 by Andrew W. Mann, Brett M. Morris, Elisabeth Newton, Eric D. Lopez, Hannah R. Wakeford, Lili Alderson, Natasha E. Batalha, Patrick J. Lowrance, Peter Gao, Peter Plavchan, Roxana Lupu, William C. Waalkes, Zachory K. Berta-Thompson.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Median spectra and white light curves for the first (top row) and second visit (bottom row) with trim regions indicated on the left panel. The transit light curves show the typical WFC3 systematic ramp effect, with the first orbit in each visit experiencing the most dramatic effect. At least one flare is clear in the data, highlighted in green in the 2nd orbit of S22/G102. The flux offset between scan dire… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Top row: spectroscopic light curves for visit F21/G141 (left column) and S22/G102 (right column) as they are returned from the PACMAN pipeline, with the temporal gaps between orbits removed. Bottom row: after trimming the wavelength edges and mean-normalizing each light curve, the effect of poor tracking stands as horizontal stripes of alternating bright and dark intensity, due to spectral lines wobbling i… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Binning scheme for F21/G141 with vertical red bars to denote the bin edges. Top row: the standard deviation of the residual RMS calculated for a linear model fit to that wavelength’s light curve, both for the unbinned light curves (pink) and the resulting binned light curves (blue). Second row: The median-flux offset between orbit 2 and orbit 1 for each instrument-resolution (pink) and binned (blue) light … view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Stellar photosphere map (left: F21/G141, right: S22/G102) with associated active region locations and sizes measured by the astrophysical white light curve model. These models of the surface of AU Mic are simplifications based on a single bandpass and do not illustrate the complex reality of spot morphology. Rather, the locations and sizes of these spots represent the simplest configuration we explored whi… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Spotted white-light fits for F21/G141 (left) and S22/G102 (right). Models shown include both astrophysical and instrumental signals. Data are plotted with scaled uncertainties. Spot occultations can be seen more clearly in the 3rd row, where the light curves have had both the instrumental and rotational signatures removed. Significant structure in the residuals, especially the ingress and mid-transit of S2… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Linear white-light curve models for F21/G141 (top) and S22/G102 (bottom). Here, the data have been normalized by the median instrumental model, and spot oc￾cultations have been trimmed from the transit chord. Tspot, to be 3020 ± 69K with filling factor fspot = 0.33±0.05. This and the photospheric component are in excellent agreement with the measurements provided in W. C. Waalkes et al. (2024). A third tem… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: F21/G141 light curves with best-fit models, plotted with vertical offsets. ˜σobs represents the median uncertainty for each light curve, with each light curve model’s reduced-χ 2 statistic labeled on the right panel. These light curves were systematic-corrected using median parameters from the linear white light curve analysis. • We use the quadratic limb-darkening law in our transit modeling, which is und… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Retrieved model spectra in the (top) HST and (bottom) optical and JWST wavelengths for the “Full Model” (blue) and “TLS-Only” (red) cases. The shaded regions indicate the 1σ spread in retrieved spectra. In the top panel the H2O and CH4 absorption bands near 1.4 µm are indicated, while in the bottom panel the two JWST NIRCam filters (F322W2 in yellow and F444W in purple) that are being used to observe AU M… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Retrieved posteriors for the “Full Model” case. Here, Tp is Tphot; Ts is Tspot; T is Tatm; log(f) is log(fscatt); ms is mscatt; fs is fspot; and log(Pc) is log(Pcloud). and their planets are expected to lose a significant frac￾tion of their atmospheres and thermally contract in the next ∼Gyr, eventually evolving into sub-Neptunes. The potentially much higher mass/metallicity of AU Mic b suggests that it e… view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Posterior for the scale height of AU Mic b’s atmosphere at 1 bar computed from posteriors for Mp, Rp, Tatm, and [M/H] from our “Full Model” retrieval. The me￾dian (51.8 km) and 3σ upper limit (184.8 km) are shown in the black dashed and red dotted lines, respectively. still differentiate AU Mic b from the V1298 Tau and HIP 67522 planets that have had atmospheric obser￾vations, which showed largely clear a… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: SED decomposition with 2 temperature (top) and 3 temperature (bottom) models. Randomly sampled models are plotted in red. Donati, J. F., Cristofari, P. I., Finociety, B., et al. 2023, MNRAS, 525, 455, doi: 10.1093/mnras/stad1193 Donati, J.-F., Cristofari, P. I., Moutou, C., et al. 2025, A&A, 700, A227, doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/202555371 Espinoza, N., & Jord´an, A. 2016, MNRAS, 457, 3573, doi: 10.1093/mnras/… view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Corner plots for the 2-temperature (left) and 3-temperature (right) SED fits. Garc´ıa Soto, A., Duvvuri, G. M., Newton, E. R., et al. 2025, ApJ, 982, 98, doi: 10.3847/1538-4357/adb615 Gelman, A., & Rubin, D. B. 1992, Statistical Science, 7, 457, doi: 10.1214/ss/1177011136 Gilbert, E. A., Barclay, T., Quintana, E. V., et al. 2022, AJ, 163, 147, doi: 10.3847/1538-3881/ac23ca Ginzburg, S., Schlichting, H. E.… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Young sub-Neptune progenitors around M dwarfs offer an excellent opportunity to probe the formation of their abundant, older cousins. At $\sim$20 Myr and only 9.7 pc away, AU Mic b is an ideal candidate for this effort, with its density and observations of escaping hydrogen pointing to a significant primordial atmosphere. Here we present the 0.8-1.6 $\micron$ transmission spectrum of AU Mic b observed with the Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We find that HST experienced unstable scanning during its visits, resulting in a variable PSF that dramatically affects the orbit-to-orbit baseline of the observations. While we were able to somewhat mitigate this problem through spectral binning, the effects cannot be completely eliminated, limiting the precision of our results. Our data is further impacted by the intense magnetic activity of AU Mic, which introduced significant rotational variability along with spot crossings and the transit light source (TLS) effect into the light curves and spectrum, respectively. Through decomposition of the out-of-transit stellar SED, we are able to constrain AU Mic's photospheric and spot temperatures to 3891$\pm$37 and 3020$\pm$69 K, respectively, with a spot filling factor of $0.33\pm0.05$. Using Bayesian atmospheric retrievals, we show that the spectrum is dominated by the TLS effect with weak atmospheric constraints, with the data preferring a relatively small scale height of $<$185 km to 3$\sigma$. Extrapolation of our retrieved spectra shows that the TLS effect dominates over atmospheric features at optical and infrared wavelengths.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript presents the 0.8-1.6 μm HST/WFC3 transmission spectrum of the young sub-Neptune AU Mic b. Unstable scanning produced variable PSF that affects orbit-to-orbit baselines and cannot be fully removed even after spectral binning. Stellar activity introduces rotational variability, spot crossings, and the transit light source (TLS) effect. Decomposition of the out-of-transit stellar SED constrains photospheric temperature to 3891±37 K, spot temperature to 3020±69 K, and spot filling factor to 0.33±0.05. Bayesian atmospheric retrievals indicate that the observed spectrum is dominated by TLS, with only weak atmospheric constraints; the data prefer a scale height <185 km at 3σ. Extrapolation shows TLS dominating atmospheric features at optical and infrared wavelengths.

Significance. If the TLS correction holds, the result provides a concrete demonstration that stellar heterogeneity can mask atmospheric signals in transmission spectra of young planets around active M dwarfs, with direct implications for formation and evolution studies of sub-Neptunes. The work also supplies quantitative limits on the atmospheric scale height under the adopted TLS model.

major comments (2)
  1. [SED decomposition and TLS correction sections] The central claim that TLS dominates the spectrum (and that the atmosphere prefers scale height <185 km at 3σ) rests on applying the out-of-transit SED-derived parameters (T_phot=3891±37 K, T_spot=3020±69 K, f_spot=0.33±0.05) as the TLS correction during transit. For an active star with known non-uniform spot distribution, these disk-integrated values may not represent the specific photosphere and spots occulted by the planet; no test of this assumption (e.g., via spot-crossing events or multi-epoch comparisons) is described. This is load-bearing for the retrieval results.
  2. [Data reduction and light-curve modeling sections] The manuscript states that PSF variability from unstable scanning 'cannot be completely eliminated' and limits precision, yet the quantitative impact of residual baseline variations on the retrieved scale-height upper limit and on the TLS-versus-atmosphere decomposition is not assessed (e.g., via injection-recovery or covariance analysis).
minor comments (1)
  1. [Retrieval setup] Notation for the spot filling factor and its propagation into the retrieval should be clarified; it is introduced as a free parameter but its prior and posterior are not tabulated.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful reading and constructive comments, which highlight important assumptions and limitations in our analysis. We address each major comment below and outline revisions to improve clarity and robustness.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [SED decomposition and TLS correction sections] The central claim that TLS dominates the spectrum (and that the atmosphere prefers scale height <185 km at 3σ) rests on applying the out-of-transit SED-derived parameters (T_phot=3891±37 K, T_spot=3020±69 K, f_spot=0.33±0.05) as the TLS correction during transit. For an active star with known non-uniform spot distribution, these disk-integrated values may not represent the specific photosphere and spots occulted by the planet; no test of this assumption (e.g., via spot-crossing events or multi-epoch comparisons) is described. This is load-bearing for the retrieval results.

    Authors: We agree that the TLS correction relies on the assumption that the disk-integrated spot parameters derived from the out-of-transit SED are representative of the stellar surface occulted during transit. This is a standard approach when chord-specific constraints are unavailable, but we acknowledge it is load-bearing for the conclusion that TLS dominates. The manuscript notes the presence of spot-crossing events in the light curves, yet these were not quantitatively modeled to adjust the filling factor for the transit chord due to their low signal-to-noise relative to the overall variability. We will revise the relevant sections to explicitly discuss this assumption, its potential systematic uncertainty, and the value of future multi-epoch observations for testing it. This constitutes a partial revision. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Data reduction and light-curve modeling sections] The manuscript states that PSF variability from unstable scanning 'cannot be completely eliminated' and limits precision, yet the quantitative impact of residual baseline variations on the retrieved scale-height upper limit and on the TLS-versus-atmosphere decomposition is not assessed (e.g., via injection-recovery or covariance analysis).

    Authors: We agree that a quantitative assessment of residual baseline variations from the unstable scanning would strengthen the robustness claims. While the manuscript already states that these effects limit precision even after binning, we did not perform injection-recovery tests or covariance analysis to propagate their impact specifically onto the scale-height upper limit or the TLS-atmosphere decomposition. We will add such tests in the revised manuscript to evaluate how residual systematics could affect the 3σ preference for scale height <185 km. This will be incorporated as a new subsection. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; sequential fitting of stellar parameters from out-of-transit data followed by independent retrieval

full rationale

The paper decomposes the out-of-transit stellar SED to obtain photospheric/spot temperatures and filling factor, applies a TLS correction derived from those parameters to the transmission spectrum, and then runs Bayesian atmospheric retrievals on the corrected data to constrain scale height. This is a standard forward-modeling sequence with no self-definitional loops, no fitted inputs renamed as predictions, and no load-bearing self-citations or uniqueness theorems in the provided text. The retrieval result (scale height <185 km) is an output of the corrected spectrum rather than a re-expression of the stellar fit inputs. The derivation remains self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

4 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on fitted stellar parameters derived from the observations and standard assumptions in exoplanet atmospheric retrieval codes; no new physical entities are introduced.

free parameters (4)
  • spot filling factor = 0.33±0.05
    Fitted from out-of-transit SED decomposition to quantify TLS contribution
  • photospheric temperature = 3891±37 K
    Fitted from out-of-transit SED decomposition
  • spot temperature = 3020±69 K
    Fitted from out-of-transit SED decomposition
  • atmospheric scale height upper limit = <185 km (3σ)
    Retrieved from Bayesian fit to the corrected spectrum
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Standard assumptions underlying Bayesian atmospheric retrieval codes for transmission spectra (e.g., forward model physics, prior distributions)
    Invoked when interpreting the spectrum after TLS correction

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5898 in / 1454 out tokens · 56588 ms · 2026-07-01T03:48:26.925678+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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