INDEX
Every paper Pith has read and judged, in one searchable index.
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stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Half-trek estimators gain closed-form standard errors
Leopold Mareis +2 · “Semiparametric Inference for Half-Trek Estimators in Linear Structural Equation Models”
2606.26931 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Online policy matches optimal ratio without offline data
Jung-Hun Kim +2 · “Asymptotically Optimal Learning for Parametric Prophet Inequalities”
2606.26893 -
math.NA arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Variable timesteps and directed friction speed up Langevin sampling
Benedict Leimkuhler +1 · “Accelerated sampling using SamAdams variable timesteps and position-adaptive Langevin dynamics”
2606.26881 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25One failure sample yields high-dim Shapley effects via flows
Lucas Monteiro +3 · “High-dimensional reliability-oriented Shapley effect estimation with Normalizing Flows”
2606.26826 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25One failure sample yields high-dim target Shapley effects
Lucas Monteiro +3 · “High-dimensional reliability-oriented Shapley effect estimation with Normalizing Flows”
2606.26826 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Partial sampling lowers causal estimator variance under budget
Leopold Mareis · “Optimizing Experimental Design for Causal Effect Estimation with Partial Measurements”
2606.26818 -
q-fin.PM arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Neural networks outperform classical models in bond yield curve forecasts
Tobias Lausser +2 · “Data-Driven Duration Management -- Term Structure Forecasting Using Machine Learning”
2606.26815 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Secant approximations replace Hessian for smoothing parameter selection
Joshua Krause +2 · “Structured Secant Methods to Select Smoothing Parameters For General Smooth Models”
2606.26804 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Lecture notes introduce multiple testing error criteria
Jesse Hemerik · “Multiple testing”
2606.26781 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Probabilistic top-down method scales coherent forecasts to 300k series
Lorenzo Zambon +2 · “End-to-end probabilistic hierarchical forecasting of large hierarchies via probabilistic top-down”
2606.26774 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Forecasting 0.3% of series tops M5 and Favorita hierarchies
Lorenzo Zambon +2 · “End-to-end probabilistic hierarchical forecasting of large hierarchies via probabilistic top-down”
2606.26774 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Hypernetwork maps one noisy embedding to DP model parameters
Naoki Nishikawa +2 · “Escaping Iterative Parameter-Space Noise: Differentially Private Learning with a Hypernetwork”
2606.26772 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Nyström subsampling reaches optimal rates for vector kernel regression
Naveen Gupta +2 · “Scalable Operator Learning via Nystr\"om Approximation With Denoising Applications”
2606.26652 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Bayesian method cuts bias in weak-instrument multivariable MR
Andrew J. Grant +2 · “Multivariable Mendelian randomization with weak instruments: a comparison of Bayesian and frequentist methods”
2606.26638 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25DR-QIF stays consistent for ATE if either model is correct
Hengshi Yu · “Doubly Robust Quadratic Inference Functions for Causal Inference in Cluster Randomized Trials”
2606.26630 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Covariance reweighting stops exponential SNR collapse in polynomial Stein tests
Minh-Long Nguyen +4 · “$\lambda$-PSD: Scalable Approximate SNR-Optimised Polynomial Stein Discrepancies”
2606.26621 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25ROBU applies orthogonal block updates on variable subsets to scale MM-estimator…
Anthony Christidis +1 · “Fast Robust Regression via Orthogonal Block Updates”
2606.26611 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Three-stage weights recover causal effects from case-control data
Tarikul Islam +1 · “A Unified Three-Stage Weighting Framework for Causal Inference and Mediation Analysis under Case-Control Sampling”
2606.26543 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Transformer filter trained on synthetic data matches Bayesian posterior
Eviatar Bach +4 · “Learning Probabilistic Filters with Strictly Proper Scoring Rules”
2606.26497 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-25Closed-form rate calibrates general Bayesian posteriors
Takahiro Onizuka · “Learning rate selection via weighted Fisher divergence”
2606.26478 -
cs.IT arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Grassmannian modulation cuts PAPR and enables phase-blind timing recovery
Eylon E. Krause · “A Low-PAPR, Synchronization-Robust Non-Coherent Grassmannian Modulation for Optical Communications”
2606.26464 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-24State-space model enables online adaptation to shifted data
Daniel Corrales +1 · “A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation”
2606.26457 -
q-bio.PE arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Spline clock recovers true time-varying rates with tighter intervals
Pratyusa Datta +2 · “Smoothly Time-Varying Continuous Time Markov Chains in Phylogenetics”
2606.26402 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Minimum divergence estimators using Hellinger distance and negative exponential disparity…
Siqi Wei +2 · “Robust Estimation of Polychoric Correlation for Complex Survey Designs Using Minimum Divergence Methods”
2606.26351 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Covariates improve matrix completion accuracy at low compute cost
Khaled Fouda +2 · “Incomplete Matrix Regression”
2606.26325 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Outlier detection extended to mixed continuous and ordinal data
Efthymios Costa +1 · “A unified approach to outlier identification for mixed-type data”
2606.26324 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24An extension of the minimum covariance determinant estimator to latent Gaussian variables…
Efthymios Costa +1 · “A unified approach to outlier identification for mixed-type data”
2606.26324 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Hierarchical model corrects both error types in detection-only species data
Kabiru Abubakari +5 · “False Positives, False Negatives, and the Detection-Only Problem: A Hierarchical Model for Species Occurrence with Observation Error”
2606.26323 -
math.NA arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Hybrid dynamics reaches Gibbs equilibrium exponentially fast
Bj\"orn Engquist +2 · “Sampling Using Hybrid Stochastic Dynamics”
2606.26314 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Variance deltas tree ranks what unobserved data would shrink uncertainty
Collin Cademartori · “Variance Deltas for Visualizing and Explaining Posterior Uncertainty”
2606.26309 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Closed-form Shapley values attribute interval outliers to centers and ranges
Catarina P. Loureiro +3 · “Explainable Outlier Detection for Interval-valued Data”
2606.26307 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Best extreme predictor is a tilted quantile of the angular measure
Benjamin Bobbia +1 · “On the optimal prediction of extreme events”
2606.26270 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Optimal extreme predictor is tilted conditional quantile
Benjamin Bobbia +1 · “On the optimal prediction of extreme events”
2606.26270 -
math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-06-24RHMC gains entropy speedup but BPS and Zig-Zag lose exponential convergence
Pierre Monmarch\'e +1 · “On the entropic convergence for piecewise deterministic samplers: speedup and obstruction”
2606.26086 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Pitman-Yor mechanism yields private synthetic discrete data
Maria Chiara Menicucci +3 · “Bayesian Nonparametric Privacy-Preserving Synthetic Data Generation: I. Discrete Data”
2606.26073 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Dirichlet-multinomial residuals normalize overdispersed sparse counts
Akshay Balsubramani · “Deviance-style normalization for jointly overdispersed counts”
2606.26061 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Raw estimators already hit optimal rates without augmentation
Zhengchi Ma +2 · “When Does Synthetic Data Augmentation Improve Score-Based Imbalanced Classification?”
2606.26053 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Re-labeling fixes global imbalance in federated learning
Guangzheng Hu +5 · “FedReLa: Imbalanced Federated Learning via Re-Labeling”
2606.26037 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Higher input dimensions ease adversarial example creation
Nasrin Malekzadeh Goradel +5 · “The Role of Input Dimensionality in the Emergence and Targeted Control of Adversarial Examples”
2606.26207 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-06-24London crime rates and mental health referrals follow U-shape
Nadine F\"assler +1 · “Crime reduction through public healthcare: Interpretable machine learning for mental health service impacts in Greater London”
2606.26202 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Fairness audits need structural context
Antonio Ferrara · “Statistical and Structural Approaches to Algorithmic Fairness”
2606.26200 -
stat.CO arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Pareto smoothing adds minimal value to SMC samplers
Jia Le Tan +2 · “Exploring Pareto smoothing in sequential Monte Carlo”
2606.25983 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Few Monte Carlo replications achieve higher-order bootstrap coverage
Shengyi He +2 · “Studentized Cheap Bootstrap: Achieving Higher-Order Coverage Accuracy with Low Computation”
2606.25968 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Surrogate slices stratify prior samples for cheaper integration
Johannes K. Krondorfer +3 · “Slice Monte Carlo Integration”
2606.25967 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Quadratic regularization estimates OT cost at rate n^{-2/(d+4)}
Alberto Gonz\'alez-Sanz +2 · “Finite-sample bounds for regularized optimal transport”
2606.25947 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Spatial-median test works for heavy-tailed high-dim location
Long Feng +2 · “Elliptical Regularized Hotelling Testing for High Dimensional Data”
2606.25942 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-24Scaling laws transfer smoothing parameters from small to large samples
Luyang Fang +4 · “Knowledge Cascade: Reverse Knowledge Distillation on Nonparametric Multivariate Functional Estimation”
2606.25927 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-06-24GLARMA negative binomial model yields stabler malaria forecasts
Adithya B. Somaraj +3 · “Count data modeling and forecasting of malaria incidence using generalized time series regression”
2606.25902 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-06-24GLARMA negative binomial yields stabler malaria forecasts
Adithya B. Somaraj +3 · “Count data modeling and forecasting of malaria incidence using generalized time series regression”
2606.25902 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-24f-divergences stay unchanged under group actions in transformation models
Frank Nielsen +1 · “Group invariance of $f$-divergences and the Fisher--Rao distance”
2606.25790