An iterative AI reasoning process proposes new dynamical dark energy equations of state that are competitive with traditional forms on supernova, BAO, and Planck data.
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Bayes in the sky: Bayesian inference and model selection in cosmology
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abstract
The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bayesian methods have proven to be vastly superior to more traditional statistical tools, offering the advantage of higher efficiency and of a consistent conceptual basis for dealing with the problem of induction in the presence of uncertainty. This trend is likely to continue in the future, when the way we collect, manipulate and analyse observations and compare them with theoretical models will assume an even more central role in cosmology. This review is an introduction to Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics and recent results in the field. I first present Bayesian probability theory and its conceptual underpinnings, Bayes' Theorem and the role of priors. I discuss the problem of parameter inference and its general solution, along with numerical techniques such as Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. I then review the theory and application of Bayesian model comparison, discussing the notions of Bayesian evidence and effective model complexity, and how to compute and interpret those quantities. Recent developments in cosmological parameter extraction and Bayesian cosmological model building are summarized, highlighting the challenges that lie ahead.
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representative citing papers
GRAVITY+ observations yield a 12CO/13CO ratio of 91^{+24}_{-17} in β Pictoris b consistent with solar/ISM values and a tentative 1.4% atmospheric variability amplitude.
The work demonstrates that multi-tracer field-level SBI on galaxy and HI maps yields 2-7 times better constraints on Omega_m and sigma_8 than single-tracer or summary-statistic approaches, with 3D maps performing best.
Bayesian model selection over SMEFT operator subsets using a genetic algorithm and BIC approximation is applied to electroweak, Higgs, top and diboson data, finding no evidence for new physics and improved Wilson coefficient posteriors compared to global fits.
DESI DR2 BAO data exhibits 2.3 sigma tension with CMB in Lambda-CDM but prefers evolving dark energy (w0 > -1, wa < 0) at 3.1 sigma with CMB and 2.8-4.2 sigma when including supernovae.
A QCD-vacuum-based model of dynamical dark energy fits Planck+ACT+SPT, DESI DR2, and supernova data while reproducing the late-time evolution favored by DESI.
Any background-inert λ in coincident f(Q) gravity degenerates with σ80 via an As-D0(λ) link, inflating σ80 to unphysical levels and raising As by 20-30% in tension with Planck unless fixed by As priors.
A scale-invariant model uses a diluting-matter-dependent potential to connect early and late dark energy via tunneling, alleviating the Hubble tension with best-fit early dark energy fraction ~0.3 at z~5000.
Milky Way radial and vertical dynamics are inconsistent with MOND and STVG but consistent with dark matter halos, disfavoring the former at high significance.
Using combined CMB and LSS observations, the analysis sets 95% CL upper limits on oscillatory amplitudes at approximately 2% of A_s and a MAP value of 0.034 for the particle production coupling constant, finding no statistical preference for the extended models.
New constraints on dark radiation parameters from recent cosmological datasets show the model alleviates the Hubble tension with SH0ES inclusion while remaining consistent with standard expectations without it.
A sign-switching dark energy model (Λ_s CDM) recovers positive effective neutrino masses (0.055 ± 0.050 eV) consistent with oscillation data, unlike ΛCDM which prefers negative values (-0.075 eV), for DESI DR2 + CMB + supernova fits with z_† > 2.4.
Factorized sequential Bayesian updates on correlated pseudo-data produce systematic deviations from the joint posterior that increase with correlation strength, while exact conditional-likelihood updates match the joint result; an information decomposition attributes the mismatch to parameter-tuned,
Bayesian evidence computation on DESI DR2 plus Planck and supernovae eliminates the frequentist 3.1 sigma preference for w0waCDM over LambdaCDM when using the DES-Dovekie recalibration, yielding ln B = -0.30 favoring the standard model.
Evidence for dynamical dark energy in the w0waCDM framework is strongly dataset-dependent, driven by mismatches in low-redshift BAO distance ratios that produce divergent expansion histories and inconsistent Hubble tension relief.
Gravitationally induced particle creation models fit cosmological data as well as ΛCDM and reduce the Hubble tension from 4.3σ to 2.4–3σ.
Nonminimal curvature-matter coupling produces dynamical dark energy consistent with DESI observations and lunar laser ranging equivalence principle constraints.
Bayesian evidence favors a constant dark energy model for DESI plus Planck data and shows that apparent support for evolving dark energy with added supernova data stems from a 2.95 sigma tension between DESI and DES-SN5YR that the flexible model resolves.
Dynamical dark energy remains preferred across extended models while curvature, neutrino mass and inflation parameters show strong model dependence, with no resolution of the H0 tension.
Three new hot Jupiters (periods 1.8-4 days, radii 1.22-1.58 RJup, masses 0.36-0.87 MJup) around evolved stars aged 4-9 Gyr, extending the sample for hot Jupiter evolutionary studies.
Systematic re-analysis of Planck PR3 and PR4 CMB datasets finds local fit improvements of up to Δχ² ≈ -15 for certain oscillatory templates but no global significance above 2.6σ after look-elsewhere correction and Bayesian penalties.
3D RHD simulations of FR0 jets in LEDA 55267 and LEDA 58287 show recollimation shocks driving compactness via turbulence and deceleration, with SED modeling predicting lepto-hadronic emission at TeV energies as a testable forecast.
The QDEE model fits combined cosmological datasets better than Lambda CDM, shifts the Hubble constant higher, and shows strong Bayesian evidence in its favor.
Interacting k-essence dark energy and non-pressureless dark matter models with two interaction forms are shown to reproduce major cosmological epochs and fit observations comparably to LambdaCDM while admitting late-time de Sitter attractors.
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$^{13}$CO and potential variability in $\beta$ Pictoris b with GRAVITY+
GRAVITY+ observations yield a 12CO/13CO ratio of 91^{+24}_{-17} in β Pictoris b consistent with solar/ISM values and a tentative 1.4% atmospheric variability amplitude.
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TOI-3664 b, TOI-4034 b & TOI-6564 b: Three new hot Jupiters around stars approaching the terminal age main sequence
Three new hot Jupiters (periods 1.8-4 days, radii 1.22-1.58 RJup, masses 0.36-0.87 MJup) around evolved stars aged 4-9 Gyr, extending the sample for hot Jupiter evolutionary studies.