Bayesian model selection over SMEFT operator subsets using a genetic algorithm and BIC approximation is applied to electroweak, Higgs, top and diboson data, finding no evidence for new physics and improved Wilson coefficient posteriors compared to global fits.
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Trotta, Contemporary Physics 49, 71 (2008), arXiv:0803.4089 [astro-ph]
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abstract
The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bayesian methods have proven to be vastly superior to more traditional statistical tools, offering the advantage of higher efficiency and of a consistent conceptual basis for dealing with the problem of induction in the presence of uncertainty. This trend is likely to continue in the future, when the way we collect, manipulate and analyse observations and compare them with theoretical models will assume an even more central role in cosmology. This review is an introduction to Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics and recent results in the field. I first present Bayesian probability theory and its conceptual underpinnings, Bayes' Theorem and the role of priors. I discuss the problem of parameter inference and its general solution, along with numerical techniques such as Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. I then review the theory and application of Bayesian model comparison, discussing the notions of Bayesian evidence and effective model complexity, and how to compute and interpret those quantities. Recent developments in cosmological parameter extraction and Bayesian cosmological model building are summarized, highlighting the challenges that lie ahead.
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representative citing papers
DESI DR2 BAO data exhibits 2.3 sigma tension with CMB in Lambda-CDM but prefers evolving dark energy (w0 > -1, wa < 0) at 3.1 sigma with CMB and 2.8-4.2 sigma when including supernovae.
Any background-inert λ in coincident f(Q) gravity degenerates with σ80 via an As-D0(λ) link, inflating σ80 to unphysical levels and raising As by 20-30% in tension with Planck unless fixed by As priors.
A scale-invariant model uses a diluting-matter-dependent potential to connect early and late dark energy via tunneling, alleviating the Hubble tension with best-fit early dark energy fraction ~0.3 at z~5000.
Milky Way radial and vertical dynamics are inconsistent with MOND and STVG but consistent with dark matter halos, disfavoring the former at high significance.
A sign-switching dark energy model (Λ_s CDM) recovers positive effective neutrino masses (0.055 ± 0.050 eV) consistent with oscillation data, unlike ΛCDM which prefers negative values (-0.075 eV), for DESI DR2 + CMB + supernova fits with z_† > 2.4.
Factorized sequential Bayesian updates on correlated pseudo-data produce systematic deviations from the joint posterior that increase with correlation strength, while exact conditional-likelihood updates match the joint result; an information decomposition attributes the mismatch to parameter-tuned,
Bayesian evidence computation on DESI DR2 plus Planck and supernovae eliminates the frequentist 3.1 sigma preference for w0waCDM over LambdaCDM when using the DES-Dovekie recalibration, yielding ln B = -0.30 favoring the standard model.
Evidence for dynamical dark energy in the w0waCDM framework is strongly dataset-dependent, driven by mismatches in low-redshift BAO distance ratios that produce divergent expansion histories and inconsistent Hubble tension relief.
Gravitationally induced particle creation models fit cosmological data as well as ΛCDM and reduce the Hubble tension from 4.3σ to 2.4–3σ.
Nonminimal curvature-matter coupling produces dynamical dark energy consistent with DESI observations and lunar laser ranging equivalence principle constraints.
Bayesian evidence favors a constant dark energy model for DESI plus Planck data and shows that apparent support for evolving dark energy with added supernova data stems from a 2.95 sigma tension between DESI and DES-SN5YR that the flexible model resolves.
3D RHD simulations of FR0 jets in LEDA 55267 and LEDA 58287 show recollimation shocks driving compactness via turbulence and deceleration, with SED modeling predicting lepto-hadronic emission at TeV energies as a testable forecast.
The QDEE model fits combined cosmological datasets better than Lambda CDM, shifts the Hubble constant higher, and shows strong Bayesian evidence in its favor.
Interacting k-essence dark energy and non-pressureless dark matter models with two interaction forms are shown to reproduce major cosmological epochs and fit observations comparably to LambdaCDM while admitting late-time de Sitter attractors.
Interacting scalar fields coupled to Gauss-Bonnet gravity yield viable dark energy and dark matter models that match Pantheon+ and DES supernova data while preferring over LambdaCDM at high redshifts with Roman mocks.
Bayesian model comparison using GP regression on Pantheon+ SNIa distances finds a logarithmic redshift correction to the HIIG L-σ relation statistically preferred when intrinsic dispersion is modeled, though evidence weakens without it and after Malmquist bias matching.
A unified taxonomy of uncertainty in ML for physics is introduced together with validation tools such as coverage, calibration, and proper scoring rules, illustrated on regression and classification tasks.
Global Bayesian evidence shows no statistically significant support for dynamical dark energy or phantom crossing despite limited local fit improvements in the w0wa parametrization.
Lecture notes providing a technical introduction to naturalness problems and the string theory landscape for graduate students.
citing papers explorer
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Exploring the SMEFT landscape: Bayesian Model Selection for indirect discovery
Bayesian model selection over SMEFT operator subsets using a genetic algorithm and BIC approximation is applied to electroweak, Higgs, top and diboson data, finding no evidence for new physics and improved Wilson coefficient posteriors compared to global fits.
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DESI DR2 Results II: Measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Cosmological Constraints
DESI DR2 BAO data exhibits 2.3 sigma tension with CMB in Lambda-CDM but prefers evolving dark energy (w0 > -1, wa < 0) at 3.1 sigma with CMB and 2.8-4.2 sigma when including supernovae.
-
The Amplitude-Growth Degeneracy and Implied $A_s$ Diagnostic for Background-Inert Modified Gravity
Any background-inert λ in coincident f(Q) gravity degenerates with σ80 via an As-D0(λ) link, inflating σ80 to unphysical levels and raising As by 20-30% in tension with Planck unless fixed by As priors.
-
Connecting Early Dark Energy to Late Dark Energy by the Diluting Matter Potential
A scale-invariant model uses a diluting-matter-dependent potential to connect early and late dark energy via tunneling, alleviating the Hubble tension with best-fit early dark energy fraction ~0.3 at z~5000.
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Milky Way Dynamics Favor Dark Matter over Modified Gravity Models
Milky Way radial and vertical dynamics are inconsistent with MOND and STVG but consistent with dark matter halos, disfavoring the former at high significance.
-
Negative neutrino mass or negative dark energy?
A sign-switching dark energy model (Λ_s CDM) recovers positive effective neutrino masses (0.055 ± 0.050 eV) consistent with oscillation data, unlike ΛCDM which prefers negative values (-0.075 eV), for DESI DR2 + CMB + supernova fits with z_† > 2.4.
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Sequential Bayesian inference with correlated heavy-ion datasets
Factorized sequential Bayesian updates on correlated pseudo-data produce systematic deviations from the joint posterior that increase with correlation strength, while exact conditional-likelihood updates match the joint result; an information decomposition attributes the mismatch to parameter-tuned,
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The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models
Bayesian evidence computation on DESI DR2 plus Planck and supernovae eliminates the frequentist 3.1 sigma preference for w0waCDM over LambdaCDM when using the DES-Dovekie recalibration, yielding ln B = -0.30 favoring the standard model.
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Probing Dynamical Dark Energy with Late-Time Data: Evidence, Tensions, and the Limits of the $w_0w_a$CDM Framework
Evidence for dynamical dark energy in the w0waCDM framework is strongly dataset-dependent, driven by mismatches in low-redshift BAO distance ratios that produce divergent expansion histories and inconsistent Hubble tension relief.
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Revisiting the Matter Creation Process: Observational Constraints on Gravitationally Induced Dark Energy and the Hubble Tension
Gravitationally induced particle creation models fit cosmological data as well as ΛCDM and reduce the Hubble tension from 4.3σ to 2.4–3σ.
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Cosmological and lunar laser ranging constraints on evolving dark energy in a nonminimally coupled curvature-matter gravity model
Nonminimal curvature-matter coupling produces dynamical dark energy consistent with DESI observations and lunar laser ranging equivalence principle constraints.
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A Bayesian Perspective on Evidence for Evolving Dark Energy
Bayesian evidence favors a constant dark energy model for DESI plus Planck data and shows that apparent support for evolving dark energy with added supernova data stems from a 2.95 sigma tension between DESI and DES-SN5YR that the flexible model resolves.
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FR0 radio galaxy jets -- I. linking jet dynamics and high-energy emission in LEDA 55267 and LEDA 58287
3D RHD simulations of FR0 jets in LEDA 55267 and LEDA 58287 show recollimation shocks driving compactness via turbulence and deceleration, with SED modeling predicting lepto-hadronic emission at TeV energies as a testable forecast.
-
Probing late-time deviations from $\Lambda$CDM with a quadratic dark energy expansion
The QDEE model fits combined cosmological datasets better than Lambda CDM, shifts the Hubble constant higher, and shows strong Bayesian evidence in its favor.
-
Interacting $k$-essence field with non-pressureless Dark Matter: Cosmological Dynamics and Observational Constraints
Interacting k-essence dark energy and non-pressureless dark matter models with two interaction forms are shown to reproduce major cosmological epochs and fit observations comparably to LambdaCDM while admitting late-time de Sitter attractors.
-
Interacting Scalar Fields as Dark Energy and Dark Matter in Einstein scalar Gauss Bonnet Gravity
Interacting scalar fields coupled to Gauss-Bonnet gravity yield viable dark energy and dark matter models that match Pantheon+ and DES supernova data while preferring over LambdaCDM at high redshifts with Roman mocks.
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Redshift Evolution of the HII Galaxy $L$-$\sigma$ Relation: Gaussian Process Analysis and Cosmological Implications
Bayesian model comparison using GP regression on Pantheon+ SNIa distances finds a logarithmic redshift correction to the HIIG L-σ relation statistically preferred when intrinsic dispersion is modeled, though evidence weakens without it and after Malmquist bias matching.
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Uncertainty in Physics and AI: Taxonomy, Quantification, and Validation
A unified taxonomy of uncertainty in ML for physics is introduced together with validation tools such as coverage, calibration, and proper scoring rules, illustrated on regression and classification tasks.
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No evidence for phantom crossing: local goodness-of-fit improvements do not persist under global Bayesian model comparison
Global Bayesian evidence shows no statistically significant support for dynamical dark energy or phantom crossing despite limited local fit improvements in the w0wa parametrization.
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Lectures on Naturalness, String Landscape and Multiverse
Lecture notes providing a technical introduction to naturalness problems and the string theory landscape for graduate students.
- Exploring the interplay of late-time dynamical dark energy and new physics before recombination