A hierarchical Bayesian framework that uses the empirical anti-correlation between AGN variability amplitude and luminosity to infer cosmological parameters from moderate-baseline light curves via importance reweighting.
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The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models
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abstract
We apply the $\texttt{unimpeded}$ framework to perform a fully Bayesian reanalysis of the DESI DR2 data, using nested sampling with $\texttt{PolyChord}$ to compute evidences for $\Lambda$CDM and seven extensions across combinations of DESI DR1/DR2, Planck CMB, supernovae (Pantheon+, Union3, DES-SN5YR, DES-Dovekie), and DES-Y1 weak lensing. The Bayesian Ockham's razor penalises extended models, yielding weaker or opposite preferences compared to $\Delta\chi^2$-based analyses. For DESI DR2 BAO combined with Planck CMB alone, the DESI collaboration's $3.1\sigma$ frequentist preference for $w_0w_a$CDM is eliminated entirely: we obtain ${\ln B = -0.57{\scriptstyle\pm0.26}}$, modestly favouring $\Lambda$CDM. Adding DES-Dovekie, the recalibration of DES-SN5YR, maintains this concordance (${\ln B = -0.30{\scriptstyle\pm0.19}}$). However, when the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration is included instead, the DESI collaboration's $4.2\sigma$ result survives the Bayesian Ockham penalty as a $3.07{\scriptstyle\pm0.10},\sigma$ preference (${\ln B = +3.32{\scriptstyle\pm0.27}}$). That this signal persists despite the Ockham penalty makes the role of tension quantification essential: our analysis traced the preference to the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration, which introduced a $2.95{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04},\sigma$ conflict with DESI DR2 within $\Lambda$CDM -- a tension that stands out from the grid -- reduced to $1.96{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04},\sigma$ with the DES-Dovekie recalibration. With DES-Dovekie, the Bayesian evidence for dynamical dark energy vanishes.
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astro-ph.CO 17years
2026 17representative citing papers
An iterative AI reasoning process proposes new dynamical dark energy equations of state that are competitive with traditional forms on supernova, BAO, and Planck data.
Extending to wCDM mainly suppresses the leading Planck Fisher eigenvalue to 2.7% of its LambdaCDM value with only modest eigenmode rotation, while late-time data adds curvature that limits tension relief.
DESI DR2 data constrain the neutrino mass sum below the inverted hierarchy minimum, yielding Bayes factor K>460 for normal hierarchy in standard cosmology.
Under standard recombination, phantom-crossing dynamical dark energy is preferred at ~97–98.5% probability; early-time fixes to the Hubble tension erase that preference while creating severe ω_m tension with CMB.
A QCD-vacuum dark-energy model with a two-parameter switch reproduces the DESI-preferred late-time expansion and is mildly favoured over ΛCDM by Bayesian evidence (lnB≈2.7).
Tensions in the supernova intercept a_B at z~0.01 in PantheonPlus and z~0.1 in DES-Y5 point to data systematics or inter-survey inconsistencies rather than new physics, aligning H0 measurements and reducing support for dynamical dark energy.
Generalized interacting dark energy models with constant or dynamical couplings yield analytical density expressions but are not preferred over LambdaCDM by Bayesian evidence from DESI, Pantheon+, and CMB data.
Joint lensing-kinematics analysis of nine CLASH clusters constrains chameleon gravity, yielding GR-consistent bounds for NFW and Hernquist profiles and |f_R| ≲ 2-5×10^{-5} for f(R) models.
Cosmological data can constrain only a handful of EFT parameters for single-scalar dark energy; extended models show modest preference over Λ but remain underdetermined and challenged by fifth forces and screening.
Best-fit viscous quintessence to the SNe Ia Master Sample shows no DESI-like phantom transition; SNe alone do not indicate a change in dark-energy nature.
Coupled quintessence-dark matter models can produce an apparent phantom-crossing effective equation of state matching DESI preferences if the scalar field begins frozen in the radiation era.
Cosmological constant repulsion stabilizes voids in the Local Universe by suppressing collapse modes through Landau damping and driving residual matter outward to void boundaries.
Effective phantom dark energy is a background-level reconstruction that does not imply fundamental pathologies such as ghost instabilities or null energy condition violation by the underlying stress tensor.
Global Bayesian evidence shows no statistically significant support for dynamical dark energy or phantom crossing despite limited local fit improvements in the w0wa parametrization.
A review of string-inspired dynamical dark energy models claiming compatibility with DESI's hints of evolving dark energy under swampland constraints.
citing papers explorer
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A hierarchical Bayesian framework for cosmology using Type 1 AGN variability
A hierarchical Bayesian framework that uses the empirical anti-correlation between AGN variability amplitude and luminosity to infer cosmological parameters from moderate-baseline light curves via importance reweighting.
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Physics-guided discovery of dynamical dark-energy equations of state through iterative AI reasoning
An iterative AI reasoning process proposes new dynamical dark energy equations of state that are competitive with traditional forms on supernova, BAO, and Planck data.
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Information-Geometric Perspective on the Hubble Tension: Eigenmode Rotation and Curvature Suppression in wCDM
Extending to wCDM mainly suppresses the leading Planck Fisher eigenvalue to 2.7% of its LambdaCDM value with only modest eigenmode rotation, while late-time data adds curvature that limits tension relief.
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From Evidence to Evident: Decisive Cosmological Evidence for the Normal Neutrino Mass Hierarchy
DESI DR2 data constrain the neutrino mass sum below the inverted hierarchy minimum, yielding Bayes factor K>460 for normal hierarchy in standard cosmology.
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Exploring the interplay of late-time dynamical dark energy and new physics before recombination
Under standard recombination, phantom-crossing dynamical dark energy is preferred at ~97–98.5% probability; early-time fixes to the Hubble tension erase that preference while creating severe ω_m tension with CMB.
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Evolving Dark Energy Is Vacuum Energy After All
A QCD-vacuum dark-energy model with a two-parameter switch reproduces the DESI-preferred late-time expansion and is mildly favoured over ΛCDM by Bayesian evidence (lnB≈2.7).
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Cosmological intercept tension
Tensions in the supernova intercept a_B at z~0.01 in PantheonPlus and z~0.1 in DES-Y5 point to data systematics or inter-survey inconsistencies rather than new physics, aligning H0 measurements and reducing support for dynamical dark energy.
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Generalizing the CPL Parametrization through Dark Sector Interaction
Generalized interacting dark energy models with constant or dynamical couplings yield analytical density expressions but are not preferred over LambdaCDM by Bayesian evidence from DESI, Pantheon+, and CMB data.
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CLASH-VLT: The Fifth Force in Chameleon Gravity from Joint Lensing and Kinematics Cluster Mass Profiles
Joint lensing-kinematics analysis of nine CLASH clusters constrains chameleon gravity, yielding GR-consistent bounds for NFW and Hernquist profiles and |f_R| ≲ 2-5×10^{-5} for f(R) models.
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The Status of Single Scalar Field Dark Energy
Cosmological data can constrain only a handful of EFT parameters for single-scalar dark energy; extended models show modest preference over Λ but remain underdetermined and challenged by fifth forces and screening.
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Interpretation of the binned SNe Ia Master Sample data via a scalar quintessence component: phantom transition?
Best-fit viscous quintessence to the SNe Ia Master Sample shows no DESI-like phantom transition; SNe alone do not indicate a change in dark-energy nature.
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Coupled Dark Energy and Dark Matter for DESI: An Effective Guide to the Phantom Divide
Coupled quintessence-dark matter models can produce an apparent phantom-crossing effective equation of state matching DESI preferences if the scalar field begins frozen in the radiation era.
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The stability of voids in the Local Universe: The role of the cosmological constant
Cosmological constant repulsion stabilizes voids in the Local Universe by suppressing collapse modes through Landau damping and driving residual matter outward to void boundaries.
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Effective Phantom Dark Energy: What Cosmological Reconstruction Does and Does Not Imply
Effective phantom dark energy is a background-level reconstruction that does not imply fundamental pathologies such as ghost instabilities or null energy condition violation by the underlying stress tensor.
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No evidence for phantom crossing: local goodness-of-fit improvements do not persist under global Bayesian model comparison
Global Bayesian evidence shows no statistically significant support for dynamical dark energy or phantom crossing despite limited local fit improvements in the w0wa parametrization.
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Breaking Free from the Swampland of Impossible Universes through the DESI Portal
A review of string-inspired dynamical dark energy models claiming compatibility with DESI's hints of evolving dark energy under swampland constraints.
- Constraints on Coupled Dark Energy in the DESI Era