Nonparametric late-time expansion history reconstruction and implications for the Hubble tension in light of recent DESI and type Ia supernovae data
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We nonparametrically reconstruct the late-time expansion history in light of the latest Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements from DESI combined with various Type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa) catalogs, using interpolation through piece-wise natural cubic splines, and a reconstruction procedure based on Gaussian Processes (GPs). Applied to DESI BAO and PantheonPlus SNeIa data, both methods indicate that deviations from a reference $\Lambda$CDM model in the $z \lesssim 2$ unnormalized expansion rate $E(z)$ are constrained to be $\lesssim 10\%$, but also consistently identify two features in $E(z)$: a bump at $z \sim 0.5$, and a depression at $z \sim 0.9$, which cannot be simultaneously captured by a $w_0w_a$CDM fit. These features, which are stable against assumptions regarding spatial curvature, interpolation knots, and GP kernel, disappear if one adopts the older SDSS BAO measurements in place of DESI, and decrease in significance when replacing the PantheonPlus catalog with the Union3 and DESY5 ones. We infer $c/(r_dH_0)=29.90 \pm 0.33$, with $r_d$ the sound horizon at baryon drag and $H_0$ the Hubble constant. Breaking the $r_d$-$H_0$ degeneracy with the SH0ES prior on $H_0$, the significance of the tension between our nonparametric determination of $r_d=136.20^{+2.20}_{-2.40}\,{\text{Mpc}}$ and the \textit{Planck} $\Lambda$CDM-based determination is at the $5\sigma$ level, slightly lower than the $6\sigma$ obtained when adopting the older SDSS dataset in place of DESI. This indicates the persistence at very high significance of the ``sound horizon tension'', reinforcing the need for pre-recombination new physics. If substantiated in forthcoming data releases, our results tentatively point to oscillatory/nonmonotonic features in the shape of the expansion rate at $z \lesssim 2$, of potential interest for dark energy model-building.
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