Pith. sign in

REVIEW 4 cited by

Not yet reviewed by Pith; the record is open.

This paper has not been read by Pith yet. Machine review is queued; the pith claim, tier, and objections will appear here once it completes.

SPECIMEN: schema-true, not a live event

T0 review · schema-true

One-sentence machine reading of the paper's core claim.

pith:XXXXXXXX · record.json · timestamp

arxiv 2404.10647 v2 pith:76NO3ARC submitted 2024-04-16 astro-ph.CO gr-qchep-phhep-th

Cosmic Inflation at the Crossroads

classification astro-ph.CO gr-qchep-phhep-th
keywords databayesianmodelsinflationcosmicepsilonreheatingslow-roll
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
0 comments
read the original abstract

The capability of Cosmic Inflation to explain the latest Cosmic Microwave Background and Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation data is assessed by performing Bayesian model comparison within the landscape of nearly three-hundred models of single-field slow-roll inflation. We present the first Bayesian data analysis based on the third-order slow-roll primordial power spectra. In particular, the fourth Hubble-flow function $\epsilon_4$ remains unbounded while the third function verifies, at two-sigma, $\epsilon_{3}\in[-0.4,0.5]$, which is perfectly compatible with the slow-roll predictions for the running of the spectral index. We also observe some residual excess of $B$-modes within the BICEP/Keck data favoring, at a non-statistically significant level, non-vanishing primordial tensor modes: $\log(\epsilon_{1}) > -3.9$, at $68\%$ confidence level. Then, for 283 models of single-field inflation, we compute the Bayesian evidence, the Bayesian dimensionality and the marginalized posteriors of all the models' parameters, including the ones associated with the reheating era. The average information gain on the reheating parameter $R_\mathrm{reh}$ reaches $1.3 \pm 0.18$ bits, which is more than a factor two improvement compared to the first Planck data release. As such, inflationary model predictions cannot meet data accuracy without specifying, or marginalizing over, the reheating kinematics. We also find that more than $40\%$ of the scenarios are now strongly disfavored, which shows that the constraining power of cosmological data is winning against the increase of the number of proposed models. In addition, about $20\%$ of all models have evidences within the most probable region and are all favored according to the Jeffreys' scale of Bayesian evidences.

discussion (0)

Sign in with ORCID, Apple, or X to comment. Anyone can read and Pith papers without signing in.

Forward citations

Cited by 4 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

  1. Time-reversed stochastic inflation in the quantum well

    astro-ph.CO 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 7.0

    Exact solution of time-reversed stochastic inflation in the quantum well yields curvature perturbation distributions with faster-decaying exponential tails than forward stochastic inflation.

  2. Higgs boson mass and thermal wino dark matter from Starobinsky supergravity with the MSSM

    hep-ph 2026-07 conditional novelty 6.0

    Starobinsky supergravity coupled to the MSSM links the CMB inflationary scale to the Higgs boson mass (~125 GeV) and predicts thermal wino dark matter at ~3 TeV, testable at future colliders and direct detection experiments.

  3. Cosmological gravitational particle production in multifield inflation

    hep-ph 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    Negative field-space curvature enhances post-inflationary Ricci scalar oscillations and boosts CGPP dark matter number density by up to an order of magnitude relative to flat field-space cases, with nontrivial relic a...

  4. Observing Cosmic Reheating with the expanded Simons Observatory

    astro-ph.CO 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 4.0

    Expanded Simons Observatory could measure reheating temperature and inflaton-gluon coupling to a few percent in QCD-driven warm inflation if r=0.01 primordial gravitational waves are found.