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arxiv: 2606.25043 · v1 · pith:LGPMZV5Hnew · submitted 2026-06-23 · 🌌 astro-ph.GA

Evolution of AGN Across Cosmic Epochs with the SKAO

R. Kondapally , V. Singh , G. Mazzolari , I. Delvecchio , A. Datta , A. Kayal , B. Mingo , J. Moldon
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J. Petley I. Prandoni K. Rubinur S. Shabala F. Shankar
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-25 23:29 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.GA
keywords active galactic nucleiradio continuum surveysSKAOAGN evolutionluminosity functionssource countscosmic epochs
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The pith

SKA-Mid multi-tiered surveys will characterize the bulk of radio AGN down to 10^23 W Hz^{-1} up to redshift 6.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper uses simulated radio source catalogues to forecast the performance of planned SKAO radio continuum surveys. It argues that reaching sub-microJansky depths overcomes the obscuration and faintness problems that limit AGN detection at other wavelengths. This depth is shown to be sufficient to capture the typical radio AGN population rather than only the rare bright ones. A sympathetic reader would care because a complete census of radio AGN across cosmic time would clarify how black-hole activity connects to galaxy growth in all environments.

Core claim

Using SKAO simulated radio source catalogues, the SKA-Mid multi-tiered surveys reaching sub-μJy depths will allow characterisation of the bulk of the radio-AGN population complete down to L_1.4GHz ~ 10^23 W Hz^{-1} and enable probing the evolution of radio-AGN across a wide range of luminosities and all galaxy environments up to z ~ 6.

What carries the argument

The SKAO simulated radio source catalogues that generate predicted radio luminosity functions, source counts, and detection rates for AGN.

If this is right

  • Radio AGN evolution can be tracked across the full luminosity range rather than only the brightest objects.
  • Studies will include AGN in all galaxy environments out to redshift 6.
  • Multi-tiered survey strategy is required to achieve this complete view at sub-μJy sensitivity.
  • Radio selection will provide an unbiased sample relative to dust-obscured or X-ray faint AGN.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The resulting AGN samples could be cross-matched with optical and infrared data to measure the fraction of obscured systems as a function of redshift.
  • Feedback models of galaxy formation could be tested against the observed space density of radio AGN in different environments.

Load-bearing premise

The simulated catalogues correctly reproduce the real numbers, host properties, and detection chances of AGN at every luminosity and redshift the surveys will reach.

What would settle it

Once SKAO data are taken, a direct count of detected AGN at faint luminosities and redshifts above 3 compared against the simulation predictions would confirm or refute the claimed completeness.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.25043 by A. Datta, A. Kayal, B. Mingo, F. Shankar, G. Mazzolari, I. Delvecchio, I. Prandoni, J. Moldon, J. Petley, K. Rubinur, R. Kondapally, S. Shabala, V. Singh.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: The 1.4 GHz radio luminosity functions in eight redshift bins over the redshift range 0.4 < 𝑧 ≤ 5.5. The 150 MHz radio luminosity functions from Kondapally et al. (2022) across 0.4 < 𝑧 ≤ 2.5, based on LoTSS Deep Fields, are shown as black circles (scaled to 1.4 GHz using a spectral index 𝛼 = −0.7). The luminosity functions derived from the VLA-COSMOS 3 GHz Large program across 0.4 < 𝑧 ≤ 5.5 by Smolčić et a… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: The comparison of differential source counts at 1.4 GHz from T-RECS, different radio source sub-populations (RL-AGN, RQ-AGN, SFGs) models from Mancuso et al. (2017). The available data from recent studies (Prandoni et al., 2018; Heywood et al., 2020; Matthews et al., 2021; van der Vlugt et al., 2021; D’Amato et al., 2022) are also shown. 𝜇Jy beam−1 noise-rms and ∼0 ′′.5 angular resolution in AA4 configurat… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Distribution of sources in the radio luminosity – redshift plane expected for the chosen SKAO reference radio continuum surveys (using 5𝜎 detection; see text). The combination of SKA-Mid band 2 wide and deep surveys will provide a complete census of radio-AGN down to 𝐿1.4 GHz ∼ 1023 W Hz−1 all the way up to 𝑧 ∼ 6. illustrate the range of parameter space that will be accessible for detailed studies of AGN e… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: The cosmic evolution of the 1.4 GHz radio luminosity functions based on the T-RECS predicted source population using the reference SKA-Mid wide and deep tier surveys (see text and Prandoni et al. 2026). functions at 𝑧 > 5. The radio luminosity function of AGN is also a key ingredient in determining the kinetic luminosity density, which refers to the total kinetic power per unit volume output by the AGN jet… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Simulated redshift distribution of radio-loud AGN expected to be detected with the SKA-Mid based on the T-RECS simulations and properties of the proposed wide and deep reference continuum surveys noted in the chapter. The expected redshift distributions are shown separately for four radio luminosity bins across 𝐿1.4 GHz ∼ 1023 – 1028 W Hz−1 . At 𝑧 > 5, we predict that the SKA-Mid observations noted here wo… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The median-stacked images obtained by stacking radio image cutouts centred at the optical positions of DOGs devoid of radio detection. Left panel: 400 MHz uGMRT stacked image. Right panel: 1.5 GHz JVLA stacked image. This figure is adapted from Kayal et al. (2022). To assess the potential of SKA-Low and SKA-Mid surveys in detecting the radio emission from DOGs we compare the radio-detection rates of 321 DO… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: The detection rates of dust-obscured galaxies in different radio surveys available in the XMM-LSS field. The detection rate scales up with sensitivity wherein solid and dotted lines represent the best-fits for high-frequency (≥ 1.4 GHz) and low-frequency (< 1.4 GHz) observations extrapolated to the SKA-Mid and SKA-Low anticipated sensitivities. The SKA-Mid and SKA-Low data points are depicted by square box… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Understanding the evolution of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and their host galaxies across cosmic epochs is one of the key science drivers of extragalactic astronomy. The detection of AGN residing in dusty environments and at high redshifts is difficult due to obscuration and faintness which poses a challenge in understanding AGN evolution across cosmic time. Deep radio continuum surveys (rms noise $<$ 1 $\mu$Jy~beam$^{-1}$) from the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO) will be an efficient means to detect and study a broad population of AGN across cosmic history. In this chapter, we present radio luminosity functions, source counts, and detection rates of AGN based on the SKAO simulated radio source catalogues. We demonstrate that the SKA-Mid multi-tiered surveys, in particular, reaching sub-$\mu$Jy depths, will allow us to characterise the bulk of the radio-AGN complete down to $L_{\rm{1.4\,GHz}} \sim 10^{23}\,\rm{W\,Hz^{-1}}$ and enable us to probe the evolution of radio-AGN across a wide range of luminosities and all galaxy environments up to $z \sim 6$. Overall, our work highlights the importance of deep multi-tiered SKAO radio continuum surveys for studying the evolution of radio-AGN activity across cosmic time.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript uses SKAO simulated radio source catalogues to compute radio luminosity functions, source counts and detection rates for AGN. It concludes that the SKA-Mid multi-tiered surveys reaching sub-μJy depths will characterise the bulk of the radio-AGN population complete down to L_1.4GHz ~ 10^23 W Hz^{-1} and enable probing of radio-AGN evolution across luminosities and environments up to z ~ 6.

Significance. If the underlying simulations are shown to be reliable, the forecasts would provide concrete guidance for SKAO survey design and highlight the unique capability of deep radio continuum observations for AGN evolution studies. The work supplies specific numerical targets (luminosity threshold, redshift reach, completeness) that could be tested once real data arrive.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract / §3–5] The completeness claim at L_1.4GHz ~ 10^23 W Hz^{-1} up to z ~ 6 (abstract and presumably §4–5) is load-bearing and rests entirely on the fidelity of the input simulated catalogues. No section describes the adopted AGN luminosity-function evolution, obscuration model, host-galaxy properties, or any cross-check against existing deep-field data at comparable depths; without this information the claimed completeness cannot be evaluated.
  2. [Abstract] The statement that the surveys will probe 'all galaxy environments' up to z ~ 6 requires the simulations to include realistic environment dependence. No equation or table shows how environment is implemented or validated, so the reach across environments is not demonstrated.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract refers to 'this chapter'; ensure the manuscript is self-contained or clearly cross-references the simulation paper that supplies the catalogues.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for these constructive comments, which correctly identify that the manuscript's key claims rest on simulation inputs that are not adequately described in the current text. We will undertake major revisions to add the missing methodological details, model descriptions, and validations so that the completeness and environment claims can be properly evaluated.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract / §3–5] The completeness claim at L_1.4GHz ~ 10^23 W Hz^{-1} up to z ~ 6 (abstract and presumably §4–5) is load-bearing and rests entirely on the fidelity of the input simulated catalogues. No section describes the adopted AGN luminosity-function evolution, obscuration model, host-galaxy properties, or any cross-check against existing deep-field data at comparable depths; without this information the claimed completeness cannot be evaluated.

    Authors: We agree that the manuscript does not currently contain a self-contained description of the input models. The results are derived from the publicly released SKAO simulated radio source catalogues (referenced in §2), which adopt a specific AGN luminosity-function evolution, obscuration prescription, and host properties. In the revised version we will insert a new subsection (in §3) that explicitly states the adopted luminosity-function form and evolution parameters, the obscuration model (including Compton-thick fraction), the host-galaxy stellar-mass and SFR distributions, and direct comparisons of the simulated source counts and luminosity functions against existing deep-field observations (e.g., VLA-COSMOS, LOFAR deep fields) at comparable depths. This will allow readers to assess the fidelity of the completeness limit. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Abstract] The statement that the surveys will probe 'all galaxy environments' up to z ~ 6 requires the simulations to include realistic environment dependence. No equation or table shows how environment is implemented or validated, so the reach across environments is not demonstrated.

    Authors: The simulations underlying the catalogues do incorporate environment dependence through the dark-matter halo occupation distribution and density-field triggering of AGN activity. However, we acknowledge that this implementation is not shown or validated in the present manuscript. We will add a concise description (with reference to the simulation methodology paper) of how local environment is modelled, together with any available validation against observed AGN–environment trends at z < 3. If the simulations do not span the full range of environments, we will revise the abstract wording from 'all galaxy environments' to 'a wide range of galaxy environments' to reflect the actual coverage. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity; results are direct outputs from input simulations with no internal derivation loop

full rationale

The paper explicitly states that luminosity functions, source counts and detection rates are presented 'based on the SKAO simulated radio source catalogues' and that the survey capabilities 'will allow' certain characterizations follow from those catalogues. No equations, fitted parameters renamed as predictions, self-citations, or ansatzes are shown that reduce the central claim to itself by construction. The exercise is a transparent model-based forecast, self-contained against the stated simulation inputs. This is the normal non-circular case.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review prevents enumeration of specific free parameters or axioms; the central forecasts rest on the fidelity of the input simulated catalogues whose construction details are not visible.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5825 in / 1093 out tokens · 15368 ms · 2026-06-25T23:29:16.021832+00:00 · methodology

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Reference graph

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