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arxiv: 2606.17218 · v1 · pith:UUWSMEHCnew · submitted 2026-06-15 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.IM

Transit Timing Variations in TESS: A Catalog from the First Five Years

Emma Nabbie , Chelsea X. Huang , Robert A. Wittenmyer , George Zhou This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-27 02:42 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.IM
keywords transit timing variationsTESSexoplanetsorbital resonancesmulti-planet systemsplanet migrationTOI systems
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The pith

TESS transit timing variation systems pile up at the 2:1 resonance, unlike the 3:2 preference in Kepler catalogs.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper builds the first catalog of transit timing variations among TESS multi-TOI systems using five years of sector data. It reports significant TTV detections in 20 of 175 multi-TOI systems, 13 previously unknown, and notes that compact systems are likelier to show them. The TTV systems cluster near 2:1 orbital period ratios, in contrast to the 3:2 clustering reported from Kepler. This contrast supplies a tentative sign that the two surveys may sample populations shaped by different disk migration pathways. The catalog also supplies a ready list of targets for deeper follow-up to map which resonances planets occupy after formation.

Core claim

We present the first catalog of transit timing variations (TTVs) in TESS systems with multiple TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs) using data from Sector 1 to Sector 69, spanning the first five years of mission operations. With an initial sample of 175 multi-TOI systems, we find significant TTVs in 20 systems, 13 of which had not been previously detected. Our results are generally consistent with the findings of previous Kepler TTV catalogs, with compact systems more likely to have detectable TTVs. However, the TTV systems in TESS exhibit a pile-up at the 2:1 orbital period resonance, in contrast to the pile-up near the 3:2 resonance from previous Kepler catalogs. This provides a tentative indic

What carries the argument

The catalog of TTV detections across 175 multi-TOI systems, followed by analysis of their orbital period ratios to identify resonance pile-ups.

If this is right

  • Compact multi-planet systems remain more likely to produce detectable TTVs than wider systems.
  • The 20 TTV systems form a ready list of high-impact targets for intensive follow-up observations.
  • Different resonance occupations may trace distinct disk migration histories between the TESS and Kepler populations.
  • The catalog marks a first step toward determining which orbital resonances migrating planets occupy at the end of formation.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The resonance difference could trace TESS's preference for brighter or later-type host stars compared with Kepler.
  • Radial-velocity follow-up on the new TTV systems would provide independent mass constraints and test interaction models.
  • If the pattern persists, it would motivate disk models that produce resonance capture outcomes dependent on disk mass or lifetime.

Load-bearing premise

The sample of 175 multi-TOI systems is free of major selection biases and the detected TTV signals arise from planet-planet interactions.

What would settle it

A bias-corrected analysis of a larger TESS TTV sample that recovers the same 3:2 resonance pile-up reported for Kepler would falsify the claimed difference in migration preferences.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.17218 by Chelsea X. Huang, Emma Nabbie, George Zhou, Robert A. Wittenmyer.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Correlation plots showing the stellar radius (top left), stellar mass (top right), orbital period (bottom left), and planet-star radius ratio (bottom right) derived in this work versus in the TOI catalog. Values from previous published literature were used instead of TIC values where available. One-sigma errorbars are denoted by horizontal and vertical bars, with a dashed x = y line to guide the eye. Huang… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Left: Distributions of period ratios of neighboring planet pairs in TESS and Kepler systems. The general TESS population is shown in grey, while TESS TTV systems are shown in cyan. Kepler TTV systems, taken from Holczer et al. (2016), are shown in red. The vertical dashed lines denote the locations of orbital resonances, with first-order resonances shown in black text. Higher-order resonances are in grey t… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: The population of TESS TTV systems in period ratio versus radius ratio space, in context with Kepler TTV systems. TESS and Kepler systems without detectable TTVs are represented by x markers, while systems with detectable TTVs in TESS and Kepler are shown in pink and light blue, respectively. Systems with TTVs that are not detectable in TESS alone are shown in dark blue. Through our pipeline, we are able t… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Recovered signals of planets with previously-published TTVs. Matching colors indicate planets from the same system. Errorbars are included but too small to be visible in most cases. The above results are consistent with those from previous TTV analyses in the literature. TOI-4495: TESS identified two super-Earth sized planet candidates around TOI-4495. TOI-4495.01 was statistically validated in Hord et al.… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: TOIs with significant TTVs in host systems where TTVs had not been previously measured. One-sigma errorbars are included but may be too small to be visible. The color scheme is shared with [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: TOIs with significant TTVs in host systems where TTVs had not been previously measured. Continued from [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Per-sector TTVs of TOI-1812 c. The phase￾folded, least-squares detrended flux for each sector is plot￾ted with a batman model overlaid. A trivial vertical offset is applied for ease of viewing. Differing colors are used to distinguish between neighboring sectors. The x-axis offset shows the observed minus calculated transit times, assuming a linear ephemeris [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Lomb-Scargle periodograms of TTV signals in systems with more than ten transits observed. The 0.01%, 0.1%, and 0.5% False Alarm Probabilities are labeled with corresponding horizontal lines. There are no strong peaks in the periodograms due to the expected TTV super-periods far exceeding the current baseline of TESS. Measurement of the super-periods will thus be left to future work as the TESS baseline inc… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We present the first catalog of transit timing variations (TTVs) in TESS systems with multiple TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs) using data from Sector 1 to Sector 69, spanning the first five years of mission operations. With an initial sample of 175 multi-TOI systems, we find significant TTVs in 20 systems, 13 of which had not been previously detected. Our results are generally consistent with the findings of previous Kepler TTV catalogs, with compact systems more likely to have detectable TTVs. However, the TTV systems in TESS exhibit a pile-up at the 2:1 orbital period resonance, in contrast to the pile-up near the 3:2 resonance from previous Kepler catalogs. This provides a tentative indicator that there may be different disk migration recipes that Kepler systems favor versus TESS systems. This catalog is a vital first step in determining which orbital resonances migrating planets tend to occupy at the end of formation, and aims to provide a list of high-impact targets for future in-depth follow up.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript presents the first catalog of transit timing variations (TTVs) from TESS data (Sectors 1–69) for an initial sample of 175 multi-TOI systems. Significant TTVs are reported in 20 systems (13 previously undetected). Results are stated to be consistent with prior Kepler catalogs regarding the preference for TTVs in compact systems, but the TTV subsample shows a pile-up at the 2:1 period ratio in contrast to the 3:2 pile-up in Kepler samples; this is interpreted as a tentative indicator of differing disk migration pathways. The work supplies a list of high-impact targets for follow-up.

Significance. If the reported resonance contrast survives bias corrections, the catalog would enlarge the sample of characterized TTV systems and supply evidence that migration outcomes may differ between the Kepler and TESS stellar populations. Even without that interpretation, the list of 20 systems with measured TTVs constitutes a practical resource for dynamical studies.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the central claim of a 2:1 resonance pile-up (contrasting Kepler’s 3:2) is load-bearing for the migration-recipe interpretation, yet the abstract supplies detection counts without quantitative thresholds, error budgets, or resonance-dependent completeness. This leaves the contrast vulnerable to the selection bias raised in the stress-test note.
  2. [Methods / Results] The manuscript does not demonstrate that the 20 TTV detections constitute an unbiased draw from the parent population with respect to period ratio. Without explicit completeness simulations or false-alarm-rate maps versus commensurability (e.g., with TESS sector length), the observed 2:1 excess cannot be distinguished from detection efficiency variations.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] The phrase “first five years of mission operations” should be reconciled with the exact sector range (1–69) and any gaps in coverage.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful reading and constructive feedback. We address the two major comments below, agreeing that the resonance contrast requires stronger qualification and that potential selection effects merit explicit discussion. We plan targeted revisions to the abstract and main text while preserving the catalog's primary value as a resource of detected systems.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the central claim of a 2:1 resonance pile-up (contrasting Kepler’s 3:2) is load-bearing for the migration-recipe interpretation, yet the abstract supplies detection counts without quantitative thresholds, error budgets, or resonance-dependent completeness. This leaves the contrast vulnerable to the selection bias raised in the stress-test note.

    Authors: We agree that the abstract should more clearly signal the preliminary character of the resonance contrast. In revision we will replace the current phrasing with language that explicitly labels the 2:1 feature as an observed excess in the detected TTV sample and notes that bias corrections remain to be performed. The main text already qualifies the result as tentative; the abstract will be brought into alignment with that caution. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Methods / Results] The manuscript does not demonstrate that the 20 TTV detections constitute an unbiased draw from the parent population with respect to period ratio. Without explicit completeness simulations or false-alarm-rate maps versus commensurability (e.g., with TESS sector length), the observed 2:1 excess cannot be distinguished from detection efficiency variations.

    Authors: This limitation is correctly identified. The present work is a detection catalog rather than a population study; we therefore did not perform the full set of completeness simulations required to convert the observed period-ratio distribution into an unbiased occurrence rate. In the revised manuscript we will add a dedicated limitations paragraph that (i) states the absence of resonance-dependent completeness maps, (ii) notes that TESS sector length and sampling can affect sensitivity near low-order commensurabilities, and (iii) frames the 2:1 excess as a target for future dedicated bias analyses rather than a confirmed population signature. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: purely observational catalog

full rationale

The paper reports an empirical catalog of TTV detections from TESS photometry across 175 multi-TOI systems, identifying 20 with significant signals and noting their period-ratio distribution. No mathematical derivation, model fitting, or self-citation chain is present that reduces the resonance pile-up claim to a fitted parameter or input by construction. The contrast with Kepler is stated as an observational finding, not a prediction derived from the paper's own definitions or prior self-citations. This is the expected self-contained outcome for a data-release catalog.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review supplies no explicit free parameters, axioms, or invented entities; an observational catalog of this type typically rests on standard assumptions about transit detection and timing measurement that are not enumerated here.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5726 in / 1086 out tokens · 41648 ms · 2026-06-27T02:42:57.809356+00:00 · methodology

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Reference graph

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