INDEX
Every paper Pith has read and judged, in one searchable index.
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stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Stacking beats single shapes when a pandemic overlaps a policy
Benjamin Stockton +3 · “Interrupted Time Series Analysis Of Count Data With Nuisance Interruptions”
2607.19493 -
astro-ph.IM arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Joint pixel-space lens posteriors sampled in five seconds
Guillaume Payeur +3 · “Strong Gravitational Lensing Posterior Sampling in Pixel-Space Using Diffusion Models and Recurrent Inference Machines”
2607.19459 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Just 2·log2 K random hyperplanes separate K Gaussian classes
Ioannis Papageorgiou +4 · “Fundamental limits of distributed multiclass classification from simple binary decisions”
2607.19334 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Per-coordinate DDIM tweak provably samples true Bayesian posteriors
Yuchen Jiao +4 · “Provable diffusion-based posterior sampling for linear inverse problems via DDIM”
2607.19333 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Tempered fractional memory, now for non-Gaussian data
Guilherme Pumi +2 · “GARTFIMA Models: A Class of Observation-Driven Models with Tempered Fractional Dynamics”
2607.19311 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Breach geometry rules near dam
Yuri Taglieri S\'ao +2 · “Metamodel-based methodology for uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis of tailings dam-breach flows”
2607.19296 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21A survival model estimates the biomarker value of lowest risk
Zhirui Fu +3 · “Rank-Based Estimation of U-Shaped Biomarker Risk Curves and Critical Points for Time-to-Event Outcomes”
2607.19280 -
q-fin.MF arXiv submitted 2026-07-21When denoisers see the noise
Junchi Shen +1 · “Denoising Subordinated Probabilistic Models: Diffusion with a Tempered-Stable Volatility Clock, and What the Noise Mechanism Actually Controls”
2607.19218 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Exchangeable-looking tails can still break the law of large numbers
Emanuela Dreassi +3 · “Some cautionary tales about Bayesian predictive inference”
2607.19206 -
math.NA arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Normalized distance functions unlock proven H2 rates for PINNs
Nathanael Tepakbong +3 · “Boundary-Adapted PINNs for Elliptic Dirichlet Problems: $H^2(\Omega)$ A Priori Error Bounds with Application to Mean Escape Time Computation”
2607.19167 -
physics.ao-ph arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Scale-aware losses improve machine-learned forecast realism
Simon Lang +2 · “On the sensitivity of machine-learned probabilistic weather forecast models to scale-aware scoring rules”
2607.19161 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Transformed pair makes Archimax copulas identifiable
Nicolas Dietrich +1 · “Identifiability, Convergence and Nonparametric Estimation of Bivariate Archimax Copulas”
2607.19087 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21In d≥2, transport quantiles diverge on inliers
Alberto Gonz\'alez-Sanz +3 · “The Influence Function of Transport-based Quantiles”
2607.19080 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Power laws are the only universal tail-dependence distortions
Klaus Herrmann +3 · “Morillas-type transformations of copulas and stable tail dependence functions”
2607.19079 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Trained LSTM predicts adhesive force trajectories with ~2% pull-off error
Ali Maghami +3 · “Deep learning-based prediction of time-resolved adhesive forces in viscoelastic Hertzian contacts”
2607.19060 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Causal cure effects identified via a likelihood decomposition
Emma Torrini +3 · “A Bayesian Approach to Causal Cure Models”
2607.19050 -
math.OC arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Uncertainty-aware design beats 3-sigma margins on twin satellites
Olivier Sapin +8 · “Industrial Application of a Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization with Uncertainties to a Pair of Telecommunication Satellites”
2607.19045 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21At each point, a deformation acts on randomness through a single matrix
Maria Laura Battagliola · “Local Second-Order Geometry Induced by Deformation Maps”
2607.19043 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21New prior centers correlation matrices on any target
Anna Freni-Sterrantino +5 · “Informative Distance-Based Priors for Correlation Matrices Centred on a Target Reference”
2607.18926 -
econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Minimizing regret is just subtracting cost covariance
Irene Aldridge · “Optimizing Regret”
2607.18866 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Optimal transport maps factor through the sufficient reduction
Kaiqiang Alan Zeng +1 · “Learning sufficient low-dimensional structures through conditional optimal transport”
2607.18861 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Independent model wins DPP approximation for attractive targets
So Anzai +1 · “Determinantal Point Process Approximation under Positive and Negative Dependence”
2607.18849 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Partial pooling predicts where cross-validation fails
Aidan D Bindoff · “Partial pooling predicts cross-validation reliability: a closed-form triage and Rao-Blackwellised cure for hierarchical LOO”
2607.18836 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Vanishing binomials uniquely identify probability models
Akihiro Maeda +2 · “Algebraic Signatures for Structural Learning in Probability Tensors”
2607.18817 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Backprop-free prompt search: latent-prior samples serve all utilities
Garrett Baker +3 · “Elicitation without Backpropagation: Steering Model Behavior by Optimizing the Latent Posterior”
2607.18804 -
stat.OT arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Rényi-divergence statistic flags length-biased samples
Vaishnavi Pavithradas +1 · “How to detect a biased sample using the Renyi divergence measure?”
2607.18790 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Match MCMC accuracy with fast Bayesian sparse count regression
Mitra Kharabati +2 · “Variational Bayesian Sparse Negative Binomial Regression”
2607.18741 -
physics.comp-ph arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Bayes' theorem runs every UQ task in mechanics
Sascha Ranftl +3 · “Uncertainty quantification in mechanics: A unified Bayesian perspective”
2607.18734 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Gaffke interval hits the Gaussian width
Jiahao Ming +4 · “Gaffke's confidence interval for the mean of bounded data is inadmissible but asymptotically efficient”
2607.18661 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Convex bandits need d^5/4√T regret
Nived Rajaraman · “The Price of Hidden Curvature: An $\widetilde{\Omega} (d^{5/4} \sqrt{T})$ Lower Bound for Bandit Convex Optimization”
2607.18652 -
math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-07-21Settled: Chernoff's density is strongly log-concave
Xianyang Zhang +1 · “Chernoff's Density Is Strongly Log-Concave”
2607.18619 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Skip the mixing time: one Glauber run recovers Gaussian graphs
Vignesh Tirukkonda +1 · “Mixing-Free and Signal-Optimal Learning of Gaussian Graphical Models from Glauber Dynamics”
2607.18559 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Softmax selection yields conditionally valid winner intervals
Soham Bakshi +3 · “Flexible Inference for Winners with Conditional Validity”
2607.18545 -
math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Heavy tails form a vector space
Kenneth Broadhead +1 · “A Vector Space Approach to Heavy Tailed Analysis”
2607.18505 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Adaptive penalty finds invalid instruments with near-certainty
Muhammad Qasim +2 · “Adaptive Penalization and Bootstrap-Smoothed Inference for Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization with Summary Data”
2607.18503 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20SPYCE is a new statistical method for Huntington disease trials where the participants…
Kihyun Han +3 · “SPYCE: A Doubly Robust Estimator for Trials Targeting Early Huntington Disease under Outcome-Dependent Censoring”
2607.18501 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Binary labels lift EHR phenotyping AUC by up to 0.1
Shuhe Wang +3 · “Using binary silver labels in electronic health records-based computable phenotyping algorithms”
2607.18431 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20MI's second-order term is exactly Pearson's chi-square
Marius Marinescu · “Mutual Information second order expansion is the Pearson's chi-square statistic”
2607.18425 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Quotienting parameter symmetries tightens PAC-Bayes bounds
Nicola Aladrah +1 · “PAC--Bayes Bounds on Quotient Parameter Spaces: Geometry-induced Implicit-Bias Priors”
2607.18422 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Temporal windows beat fixed lags for irregular causal discovery
Martim Penim +5 · “Causal Discovery on Irregular Time Series”
2607.18226 -
econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-20RAG policy regret splits into retrieval plus ranking loss
Masahiro Kato +1 · “Vector Search As Nearest Neighbor Matching: RAG-based Policy Learning in Causal Inference”
2607.18225 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Intersecting loading spaces uncovers transferable latent factors
Yihong Gu +2 · “Unveiling Invariant and Transferable Latent Factors Across Heterogeneous Environments via ATLAS”
2607.18209 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Digital twin detects drift, then fine-tunes <1% of parameters
Yi-Ping Chen +5 · “A Continual Validation, Updating, and Decision-Making Framework for Self-Adaptive Digital Twins via Robust Model Predictive Control: A Case Study in Additive Manufacturing”
2607.18164 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Subgroup fairness gap equals a covariance
Kyungseon Lee +4 · “COVAriance-Induced Fairness Gap Penalty for Subgroup-Fair Clustering”
2607.18119 -
q-bio.PE arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Level-wise recursion gives exact outbreak and duration distributions
Vasileios E. Papageorgiou +2 · “Evaluating the Impact of Epidemic Control via State-Dependent Markovian Switching Modeling”
2607.18364 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Mixture of binomial and bi-uniform fits sex-ratio data best
J\"urgen Gro{\ss} · “A binomial-like probability distribution with heavy tails”
2607.18083 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Brow lowering predicts driver rage in Bayesian network
Za\"ira M\'endez-Porcar +4 · “Predicting subjective rage and facial expressions in human driving: A Bayesian network approach with beta-distributed nodes”
2607.18030 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Bayesian model finds real dispersion in football team scoring
Nick Zhang +2 · “Bayesian Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model with spike-and slab priors for dispersed count data with application to football scores”
2607.18009 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20ρ=0.94: cluster fragments inside TabPFN predict its errors
James Hu +1 · “Topological Signatures of Context-Level Reliability in TabPFN”
2607.17962 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20Federated mediation matches pooled-data results
Hyojung Jang +7 · “Privacy-preserving causal mediation analysis using distributed electronic health record networks”
2607.17958