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INDEX

Every paper Pith has read and judged, in one searchable index.

8,735 reviewed papers in stat · newest first · page 10

Pith rank means recent reader upvotes with each upvote's ranking weight halved after 24 hours. The archive itself is sorted by arXiv submission date.

  1. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Stacking beats single shapes when a pandemic overlaps a policy

    Benjamin Stockton +3 · “Interrupted Time Series Analysis Of Count Data With Nuisance Interruptions”

    2607.19493
  2. astro-ph.IM arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Joint pixel-space lens posteriors sampled in five seconds

    Guillaume Payeur +3 · “Strong Gravitational Lensing Posterior Sampling in Pixel-Space Using Diffusion Models and Recurrent Inference Machines”

    2607.19459
  3. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Just 2·log2 K random hyperplanes separate K Gaussian classes

    Ioannis Papageorgiou +4 · “Fundamental limits of distributed multiclass classification from simple binary decisions”

    2607.19334
  4. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Per-coordinate DDIM tweak provably samples true Bayesian posteriors

    Yuchen Jiao +4 · “Provable diffusion-based posterior sampling for linear inverse problems via DDIM”

    2607.19333
  5. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Tempered fractional memory, now for non-Gaussian data

    Guilherme Pumi +2 · “GARTFIMA Models: A Class of Observation-Driven Models with Tempered Fractional Dynamics”

    2607.19311
  6. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Breach geometry rules near dam

    Yuri Taglieri S\'ao +2 · “Metamodel-based methodology for uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis of tailings dam-breach flows”

    2607.19296
  7. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    A survival model estimates the biomarker value of lowest risk

    Zhirui Fu +3 · “Rank-Based Estimation of U-Shaped Biomarker Risk Curves and Critical Points for Time-to-Event Outcomes”

    2607.19280
  8. q-fin.MF arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    When denoisers see the noise

    Junchi Shen +1 · “Denoising Subordinated Probabilistic Models: Diffusion with a Tempered-Stable Volatility Clock, and What the Noise Mechanism Actually Controls”

    2607.19218
  9. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Exchangeable-looking tails can still break the law of large numbers

    Emanuela Dreassi +3 · “Some cautionary tales about Bayesian predictive inference”

    2607.19206
  10. math.NA arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Normalized distance functions unlock proven H2 rates for PINNs

    Nathanael Tepakbong +3 · “Boundary-Adapted PINNs for Elliptic Dirichlet Problems: $H^2(\Omega)$ A Priori Error Bounds with Application to Mean Escape Time Computation”

    2607.19167
  11. physics.ao-ph arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Scale-aware losses improve machine-learned forecast realism

    Simon Lang +2 · “On the sensitivity of machine-learned probabilistic weather forecast models to scale-aware scoring rules”

    2607.19161
  12. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Transformed pair makes Archimax copulas identifiable

    Nicolas Dietrich +1 · “Identifiability, Convergence and Nonparametric Estimation of Bivariate Archimax Copulas”

    2607.19087
  13. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    In d≥2, transport quantiles diverge on inliers

    Alberto Gonz\'alez-Sanz +3 · “The Influence Function of Transport-based Quantiles”

    2607.19080
  14. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Power laws are the only universal tail-dependence distortions

    Klaus Herrmann +3 · “Morillas-type transformations of copulas and stable tail dependence functions”

    2607.19079
  15. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Trained LSTM predicts adhesive force trajectories with ~2% pull-off error

    Ali Maghami +3 · “Deep learning-based prediction of time-resolved adhesive forces in viscoelastic Hertzian contacts”

    2607.19060
  16. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Causal cure effects identified via a likelihood decomposition

    Emma Torrini +3 · “A Bayesian Approach to Causal Cure Models”

    2607.19050
  17. math.OC arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Uncertainty-aware design beats 3-sigma margins on twin satellites

    Olivier Sapin +8 · “Industrial Application of a Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization with Uncertainties to a Pair of Telecommunication Satellites”

    2607.19045
  18. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    At each point, a deformation acts on randomness through a single matrix

    Maria Laura Battagliola · “Local Second-Order Geometry Induced by Deformation Maps”

    2607.19043
  19. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    New prior centers correlation matrices on any target

    Anna Freni-Sterrantino +5 · “Informative Distance-Based Priors for Correlation Matrices Centred on a Target Reference”

    2607.18926
  20. econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Minimizing regret is just subtracting cost covariance

    Irene Aldridge · “Optimizing Regret”

    2607.18866
  21. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Optimal transport maps factor through the sufficient reduction

    Kaiqiang Alan Zeng +1 · “Learning sufficient low-dimensional structures through conditional optimal transport”

    2607.18861
  22. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Independent model wins DPP approximation for attractive targets

    So Anzai +1 · “Determinantal Point Process Approximation under Positive and Negative Dependence”

    2607.18849
  23. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Partial pooling predicts where cross-validation fails

    Aidan D Bindoff · “Partial pooling predicts cross-validation reliability: a closed-form triage and Rao-Blackwellised cure for hierarchical LOO”

    2607.18836
  24. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Vanishing binomials uniquely identify probability models

    Akihiro Maeda +2 · “Algebraic Signatures for Structural Learning in Probability Tensors”

    2607.18817
  25. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Backprop-free prompt search: latent-prior samples serve all utilities

    Garrett Baker +3 · “Elicitation without Backpropagation: Steering Model Behavior by Optimizing the Latent Posterior”

    2607.18804
  26. stat.OT arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Rényi-divergence statistic flags length-biased samples

    Vaishnavi Pavithradas +1 · “How to detect a biased sample using the Renyi divergence measure?”

    2607.18790
  27. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Match MCMC accuracy with fast Bayesian sparse count regression

    Mitra Kharabati +2 · “Variational Bayesian Sparse Negative Binomial Regression”

    2607.18741
  28. physics.comp-ph arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Bayes' theorem runs every UQ task in mechanics

    Sascha Ranftl +3 · “Uncertainty quantification in mechanics: A unified Bayesian perspective”

    2607.18734
  29. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Gaffke interval hits the Gaussian width

    Jiahao Ming +4 · “Gaffke's confidence interval for the mean of bounded data is inadmissible but asymptotically efficient”

    2607.18661
  30. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Convex bandits need d^5/4√T regret

    Nived Rajaraman · “The Price of Hidden Curvature: An $\widetilde{\Omega} (d^{5/4} \sqrt{T})$ Lower Bound for Bandit Convex Optimization”

    2607.18652
  31. math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Settled: Chernoff's density is strongly log-concave

    Xianyang Zhang +1 · “Chernoff's Density Is Strongly Log-Concave”

    2607.18619
  32. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Skip the mixing time: one Glauber run recovers Gaussian graphs

    Vignesh Tirukkonda +1 · “Mixing-Free and Signal-Optimal Learning of Gaussian Graphical Models from Glauber Dynamics”

    2607.18559
  33. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Softmax selection yields conditionally valid winner intervals

    Soham Bakshi +3 · “Flexible Inference for Winners with Conditional Validity”

    2607.18545
  34. math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Heavy tails form a vector space

    Kenneth Broadhead +1 · “A Vector Space Approach to Heavy Tailed Analysis”

    2607.18505
  35. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Adaptive penalty finds invalid instruments with near-certainty

    Muhammad Qasim +2 · “Adaptive Penalization and Bootstrap-Smoothed Inference for Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization with Summary Data”

    2607.18503
  36. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    SPYCE is a new statistical method for Huntington disease trials where the participants…

    Kihyun Han +3 · “SPYCE: A Doubly Robust Estimator for Trials Targeting Early Huntington Disease under Outcome-Dependent Censoring”

    2607.18501
  37. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Binary labels lift EHR phenotyping AUC by up to 0.1

    Shuhe Wang +3 · “Using binary silver labels in electronic health records-based computable phenotyping algorithms”

    2607.18431
  38. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    MI's second-order term is exactly Pearson's chi-square

    Marius Marinescu · “Mutual Information second order expansion is the Pearson's chi-square statistic”

    2607.18425
  39. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Quotienting parameter symmetries tightens PAC-Bayes bounds

    Nicola Aladrah +1 · “PAC--Bayes Bounds on Quotient Parameter Spaces: Geometry-induced Implicit-Bias Priors”

    2607.18422
  40. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Temporal windows beat fixed lags for irregular causal discovery

    Martim Penim +5 · “Causal Discovery on Irregular Time Series”

    2607.18226
  41. econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    RAG policy regret splits into retrieval plus ranking loss

    Masahiro Kato +1 · “Vector Search As Nearest Neighbor Matching: RAG-based Policy Learning in Causal Inference”

    2607.18225
  42. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Intersecting loading spaces uncovers transferable latent factors

    Yihong Gu +2 · “Unveiling Invariant and Transferable Latent Factors Across Heterogeneous Environments via ATLAS”

    2607.18209
  43. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Digital twin detects drift, then fine-tunes <1% of parameters

    Yi-Ping Chen +5 · “A Continual Validation, Updating, and Decision-Making Framework for Self-Adaptive Digital Twins via Robust Model Predictive Control: A Case Study in Additive Manufacturing”

    2607.18164
  44. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Subgroup fairness gap equals a covariance

    Kyungseon Lee +4 · “COVAriance-Induced Fairness Gap Penalty for Subgroup-Fair Clustering”

    2607.18119
  45. q-bio.PE arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Level-wise recursion gives exact outbreak and duration distributions

    Vasileios E. Papageorgiou +2 · “Evaluating the Impact of Epidemic Control via State-Dependent Markovian Switching Modeling”

    2607.18364
  46. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Mixture of binomial and bi-uniform fits sex-ratio data best

    J\"urgen Gro{\ss} · “A binomial-like probability distribution with heavy tails”

    2607.18083
  47. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Brow lowering predicts driver rage in Bayesian network

    Za\"ira M\'endez-Porcar +4 · “Predicting subjective rage and facial expressions in human driving: A Bayesian network approach with beta-distributed nodes”

    2607.18030
  48. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Bayesian model finds real dispersion in football team scoring

    Nick Zhang +2 · “Bayesian Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model with spike-and slab priors for dispersed count data with application to football scores”

    2607.18009
  49. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    ρ=0.94: cluster fragments inside TabPFN predict its errors

    James Hu +1 · “Topological Signatures of Context-Level Reliability in TabPFN”

    2607.17962
  50. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-20
    Federated mediation matches pooled-data results

    Hyojung Jang +7 · “Privacy-preserving causal mediation analysis using distributed electronic health record networks”

    2607.17958