INDEX
Every paper Pith has read and judged, in one searchable index.
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stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Edge sampling yields finite-sample error control for network tests
Eric Yanchenko +2 · “Universal Inference for model selection on networks”
2606.30981 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Residual-on-residual regression stabilizes causal estimates
Ashley I. Naimi +4 · “Residual-on-Residual Regression as a Tool for Effect Estimation in Observational Data”
2606.30976 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Dual-TV regularizers bound tensor error near minimax rate
Wenfei Cao +4 · “Exponential-Family Tensor Completion via Nonconvex Dual Total-Variation Regularization”
2606.30958 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Personalized thresholds lift job marketplace metrics while respecting guardrails
Yufei Wu +1 · “Personalizing Marketplace Policies with Competing Objectives and Constrained Experiments: Evidence from a Job Marketplace”
2606.30932 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29SGD self-stabilizes at edge of stability for large steps
Konstantinos Emmanouilidis +3 · “SGD at the Edge of Stability: Stochastic Stabilization with Large Learning Rates”
2606.30930 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Noisy experts force exponential horizon dependence for offline imitation
Ved Sriraman +3 · “Behavior Cloning is Not All You Need: The Optimality of On-Policy Distillation for Noisy Expert Feedback”
2606.30923 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Cluster-level cross-fitting restores survey causal coverage
M. Ehsan Karim · “Cross-Fitted Survey-Weighted TMLE with Design-Based Variance for Causal Machine Learning”
2606.30918 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Cluster-level cross-fitting fixes coverage in survey TMLE
M. Ehsan Karim · “Cross-Fitted Survey-Weighted TMLE with Design-Based Variance for Causal Machine Learning”
2606.30918 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Neural network forecasts next alternating event time
Abigail Loe +2 · “Dynamic Prediction of Alternating Recurrent Events via Neural Network”
2606.30889 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Regenerative chains get data-dependent DKW bands
Daniel Jerison · “A data-dependent DKW inequality for regenerative Markov chains”
2606.30866 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29DKW bands for Markov chains that tighten with the data
Daniel Jerison · “A data-dependent DKW inequality for regenerative Markov chains”
2606.30866 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29New method estimates largest minimizer for regression change points
Marie Hu\v{s}kov\'a +2 · “Analysis of gradual changes in nonparametric regression based on a new optimization method in the non-unique case”
2606.30864 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Random forest plateau tuning settles at ensemble size scaling as 1/ε²
Andrey A. Dukhovny +1 · “A Stationary-Distribution Theory for Triplet-Based Plateau Search in Random Forest Ensemble-Size Selection”
2606.30837 -
math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Matrix products converge to free log-normal spectral law
Mufan Li +3 · “Geometric Dyson Brownian Motions and the Free Log-Normal Limit for a Non-Square Gaussian Matrix Product”
2606.30831 -
math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Deep linear network spectra converge to free log-normal law
Mufan Li +3 · “Geometric Dyson Brownian Motions and the Free Log-Normal Limit for a Non-Square Gaussian Matrix Product”
2606.30831 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Extended counting theory identifies scattering network design factors
Konstantin H\"aberle +1 · “Separation Capacity of Scattering Networks”
2606.30822 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Error models outperform lag models for census non-response prediction
Emanuel Ben-David · “Spatial Dependence in the Self-Response: Spatial Dependence, Modeling, and Operational Consequences”
2606.30816 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Closed-form inertial model fits GRPO reward curves at R² ≥ 0.91
Rajat Ghosh +6 · “Predictable GRPO: A Closed-Form Model of Training Dynamics”
2606.30789 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29GRPO training follows a closed-form damped oscillator
Rajat Ghosh +6 · “Predictable GRPO: A Closed-Form Model of Training Dynamics”
2606.30789 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Conservative offline training increases reward hacking in online adaptation
Subramanyam Sahoo +3 · “Pessimism's Paradox: Conservative Offline Training Amplifies Reward Hacking During Online Adaptation in Reasoning Models”
2606.30627 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Norms encode semantic specificity in contrastive embeddings
Ziwei Su +2 · “Optimization Dynamics Imprint Semantic Specificity in Contrastive Embedding Norms”
2606.30625 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Minimax formulas derived for spectral densities in random-field estimation
Oleksandr Masyutka +1 · “Minimax approach to the estimation problem for homogeneous random fields”
2606.30621 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Sequential shrinkage attains oracle risk for multi-source data
Wenbo Jing +4 · “Tuning-Free Efficient Estimation for Multi-Source Data via Covariance-Aware Shrinkage”
2606.30615 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Any valid transport map is as hard to estimate as the OT map
Sivaraman Balakrishnan · “The Fundamental Limits of Valid Transport Map Estimation”
2606.30574 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Continual learning reduces to sequential projections in homogeneous nets
Matan Schliserman +3 · “Convergence of Continual Learning in Homogeneous Deep Networks”
2606.30559 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Faster updates align covariance matrices under Wasserstein distance
Woojoo Na +1 · “ITSPACE: Monotone Gaussian Optimal Transport Updates”
2606.30523 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Entropy balance sets hard limit on what nets can learn
Srinivasa Rao P. +1 · “Informational Frustration in Neural Manifolds: Shannon Bottlenecks and the Limits of Learnability”
2606.30512 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29DR-ACI gives prediction intervals for causal effects under time dependence
Andreas Koukorinis +1 · “Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence”
2606.30500 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Factorizable flows learn each parameter's density effect in isolation
Davide Valsecchi +2 · “Factorizable Normalizing Flows for parameter-dependent density morphing”
2606.30489 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Causal drift recovered from equilibrium snapshots
Richard Schwank +1 · “Non-parametric recovery of causal diffusion mechanisms from steady-state observations”
2606.30467 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Curvature-weighted noise halves SGD error floor on quadratics
Muhammad Hamza (1) +1 · “Curvature-Weighted Gradient Diversity: A Noise Measure for Geometry-Adaptive SGD Schedules”
2606.30455 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29SGD learns spurious shortcut exponentially fast before XOR signal
Tyler LaBonte +1 · “SGD Provably Prioritizes a Shortcut Spurious Feature in the XOR Model”
2606.30444 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29SGD learns the linear shortcut first and kills the XOR signal
Tyler LaBonte +1 · “SGD Provably Prioritizes a Shortcut Spurious Feature in the XOR Model”
2606.30444 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29MLE of coupling parameter consistent and efficient in hidden OU process
Sascha Gaudlitz +1 · “Parameter estimation in a fully coupled partially observed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process”
2606.30443 -
math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Rademacher max-average expectation bounded below by min{255/256
Woonyoung Chang · “Notes on constants for maxima of Rademacher averages”
2606.30411 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Net-LSW tracks time-varying dependencies on networks
Cristian F. Jim\'enez-Var\'on +2 · “Multiscale Dynamic Dependence Estimation over Networks”
2606.30399 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Shell-core geometry produces grokking scaling laws
R\'ois\'in Luo +4 · “A Stochastic--Geometric Theory of Scaling Laws in Grokking”
2606.30388 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Grokking delay is a first-passage time on a shell-core geometry
R\'ois\'in Luo +4 · “A Stochastic--Geometric Theory of Scaling Laws in Grokking”
2606.30388 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Horseshoe prior controls FDR at optimal detection boundary
Sayantan Banerjee +2 · “Multiple testing with the horseshoe”
2606.30375 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Horseshoe posterior rules attain optimal detection boundary
Sayantan Banerjee +2 · “Multiple testing with the horseshoe”
2606.30375 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Extrapolation beats single-nugget solves for ill-conditioned systems
Disha Hegde +2 · “Extrapolating from Regularised Solutions for Solving Ill-Conditioned Linear Systems in Machine Learning”
2606.30328 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Conditional test unifies HWE check and SNP association in GWAS
Stefan B\"ohringer +1 · “Evaluating HWE and Association in Genome Wide Association Studies: A Unified Procedure”
2606.30311 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29CDFs replace sorting for sliced Wasserstein distance
Christophe Vauthier +2 · “Highly Data Parallelizable Estimation of the Sliced-Wasserstein Distance Using Cumulative Distribution Functions”
2606.30310 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Differential algebra checks unique recovery of functions in DE models
Torkel E Loman +2 · “Structural functional identifiability and model discovery in differential equation models”
2606.30289 -
physics.geo-ph arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Map all of North America's crustal motion 1,000× faster
Lionel Voirol +5 · “Towards Open Science: Monitoring Crustal Deformations in North America”
2607.16264 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Level sets yield exact acceptance certificates for speculative decoding
Aaryam Sharma · “When Is a Draft Accepted? A Theory of Acceptance in Speculative Decoding”
2606.30265 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-29TabPFN v2 leads NHANES benchmark for HbA1c and CRP
Federico Felizzi · “Accelerometry-Derived Digital Biomarkers for Cardiometabolic Risk: A Population-Representative Tabular Benchmark with Uncertainty Quantification”
2606.30702 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Optimal confidence sets induce Choquet-risk optimal contours
Max Raner · “Efficiency of Valid Inferential Models: Choquet-risk Optimal Possibility Measures, and Direct Comparisons”
2606.30229 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Optimal transport unifies flow matching and Schrödinger bridge
Titouan Vayer (COMPACT) · “Notes on generative modeling: flow matching, diffusion, optimal transport and Schr{\"o}dinger bridge”
2606.30053 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-29Copulas obey |β|^3 ≤ 2ξ exactly for Chatterjee ξ and Blomqvist β
Jacob Israel Orenday Lares +1 · “The exact region between Chatterjee's $\xi$ and Blomqvist's $\beta$”
2606.30033