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INDEX

Every paper Pith has read and judged, in one searchable index.

8,731 reviewed papers in stat · newest first · page 9

Pith rank means recent reader upvotes with each upvote's ranking weight halved after 24 hours. The archive itself is sorted by arXiv submission date.

  1. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Divide by goodness-of-fit to keep wrong-model intervals honest

    Benjamin Nachman +1 · “The Well-Tempered Likelihood: Honest Confidence Intervals for Misspecified Models”

    2607.20718
  2. math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    High Gaussian minima: overshoots become exponential

    Enkelejd Hashorva +1 · “High Minima of Gaussian Processes: Overshoots and Minimizer Locations”

    2607.20714
  3. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Coarse simulation runs can predict the high-resolution limit

    Kelly R. Moran +3 · “A Bayesian Framework for Extrapolative Emulation of Spatially Gridded Simulation Data”

    2607.20703
  4. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Two targeted tests recover lagged causes from short time series

    Mohammad Fesanghary · “CEDAR: Causal Edge Discovery for Autoregressive Processes”

    2607.20696
  5. math.OC arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Sample averages converge to the true objective in a Lipschitz norm

    Lai Tian +1 · “Lipschitzian SLLNs for random functions”

    2607.20411
  6. math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Every win-martingale is an exact Bayesian posterior

    Steven Campbell +1 · “Embedding martingale diffusions as binary posteriors in sequential inference”

    2607.20373
  7. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Looped transformers run on a budget-priced linear frontier

    Tong Zhang +3 · “When Does Recurrence Become an Algorithm? Convergence Selection in Weight-Tied Looped Transformers”

    2607.20594
  8. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Deep nets match minimax rates under covariate shift and dependence

    William Kengne +1 · “Adaptive deep nonparametric regression from dependent data under covariate shift”

    2607.20309
  9. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Pooled Bayesian experts match the minimax rate for unknown smoothness

    Jungbin Jun +1 · “Adaptive Bayesian Online Learning via Expert Aggregation”

    2607.20239
  10. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    P-values decide which LoRA ranks survive

    Yihang Gao +1 · “Statistical Inference for Rank Allocation in Low-Rank Adaptation”

    2607.20205
  11. q-fin.PR arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Quantum kernels show no advantage in A-share stock prediction

    Junchi Shen · “Quantum Kernels and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Anatomy of a Vanishing Advantage”

    2607.20168
  12. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Split energy forecasts into structure and noise

    Hang Ye +7 · “SPECTRA: State-Space Exogenous Context and Temporal-Frequency Resolution Architecture for Probabilistic Energy Forecasting”

    2607.20587
  13. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Active inference planning reduces to a convex MDP

    Nikola Milosevic +2 · “Active Inference as a Convex Markov Decision Process”

    2607.20152
  14. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    A signed kernel statistic reads which way a distribution shifted

    Shijie Zhong +1 · “Directional Kernel Mean Difference: A Fast Signed Statistic for Univariate Distribution Comparison”

    2607.20119
  15. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    New NMF package wins stability

    Volkan Sevin\c{c} +3 · “Non--negative matrix factorization using the \textit{R} package \textsf{nnmf}”

    2607.20084
  16. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Fisher geometry can't beat Euclidean width in both directions

    Vu Khac Ky · “Fisher Widths: Local Learning Geometry and Anisotropic Recovery”

    2607.20578
  17. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Exact online changepoint detection runs at log(n)^d cost

    Gaetano Romano +6 · “focus and focus-cpt: Fast Online Changepoint Detection in R and Python”

    2607.19961
  18. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Horizon-free RL regret matches bandit lower bound

    Runlong Zhou +3 · “Asymptotically Optimal Regret for Reinforcement Learning without Horizon Dependence”

    2607.19854
  19. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Stopped quantile trackers defy the martingale tail-sum rule

    Nam Anh Le · “Finite-horizon quantile martingale posteriors: raw-urn laws and matrix-gain regression”

    2607.19839
  20. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Extra residual degrees of freedom make covariance shrinkage tail-free

    Hamid Karamikabir (1) +11 · “Restricted nonlinear shrinkage of high-dimensional residual covariance matrices in multivariate regressions”

    2607.20576
  21. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Rank-based shrinkage is asymptotically optimal for Gaussian-copula data

    Hamid Karamikabir (1) +11 · “Mens: Nonlinear shrinkage estimation in nonparanormal models for financial applications”

    2607.19825
  22. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    World Cup hydration breaks don't alter match momentum

    Debangan Dey · “Do In-Match Hydration Breaks Alter Match Momentum? A Within-Match Case-Crossover Analysis of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

    2607.19783
  23. stat.OT arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    A two-way Lorenz surface that recovers the joint distribution

    Shifna P R +1 · “A Conditional Quantile Approach to Vector-Valued Bivariate Lorenz Surfaces: Properties and Applications”

    2607.19780
  24. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Wind power curves transfer best from weather-matched turbines

    Ahmadreza Chokhachian +2 · “Domain-Adapted Power Curve for Cross-Farm Applications”

    2607.19744
  25. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Two-stage estimator fixes abundance bias from interfering surveys

    Yusaku Ohkubo +3 · “Two-Stage Estimation of Population Abundance with Robust Inference under Interacting Survey Protocols”

    2607.19734
  26. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Clustering with guardrails cuts LLM inference cost 50x

    Longshaokan Wang +5 · “Efficient Clustering with Provable Guardrails for LLM Inference at Scale”

    2607.19704
  27. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Greedy scan computes exact worst-case attack at every append budget

    Kwangho Kim · “Data-Poisoning Audits for Causal Effect Estimation”

    2607.19692
  28. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Recalibration is achievable in T≈ε⁻³ rounds

    Lunjia Hu +2 · “Optimal Recalibration of an Online Predictor”

    2607.19689
  29. physics.soc-ph arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Risk science needs a new goal: flourishing

    Ryan M. McGranaghan +8 · “From risk to flourishing: Seeds for responding to a complex world”

    2607.19685
  30. q-bio.NC arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    One orientation vote-sum rules perceived vertical and eye level

    A. Y. Shavit (Hunter College +2 · “Perceived vertical and eye level as one orientation order parameter: a closed-form account of the Li-Matin rules for egocentric space”

    2607.19681
  31. math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Clipped moments tame bias in weak tail dependence

    Shuang Hu +1 · “Estimating the H\"usler--Reiss variogram matrix by clipped moments”

    2607.19672
  32. econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-22
    Block forest avoids forbidden-comparison bias under staggered timing

    Harry Aytug · “A Fixed-Effects Causal Forest for Staggered Adoption, with an Application to Medicaid Expansion”

    2607.19644
  33. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    For network experiments, prediction accuracy is not efficiency

    Lei Shi +2 · “GAUGER: Generalized Regression Adjustment via Graph-Weighted Exposure-Level Residualization for Design-Based Inference Under Interference”

    2607.19627
  34. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Publication-bias tests miss real bias even with 1,000 studies

    Ulrich Schimmack · “Beyond Publication-Bias Detection: Estimating Bias under Uncertainty in Heterogeneous Literatures”

    2607.19626
  35. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Mean curve = leading eigenfunction

    Manuel Pfeuffer +4 · “Deep Shape Regression for Planar Curves with Multimodal Covariates”

    2607.19600
  36. math.AG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    This paper proves a formula for the number of complex solutions to the likelihood…

    Hannah Friedman · “Maximum Likelihood Estimation on the Grassmannian of Lines”

    2607.19593
  37. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Zero a module, measure the damage: better LLM pruning

    Kiran Nair +2 · “CausalGate: Causal Importance Distillation for Transformer Module Pruning”

    2607.22720
  38. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Taming keyed to drift ratio reaches first-order SGLD accuracy

    Yiwei Zhou +1 · “RELTA-SGLD: Relative-Growth Localized Taming for Nonconvex Stochastic-Gradient Langevin Learning”

    2607.19544
  39. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Ensemble statistics, not single shapes, drive new molecule designs

    Selma Moqvist +4 · “Boltzmann-Expected Molecular Design with Decoupled Annealing Flows”

    2607.19519
  40. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Parameter-level synthesis cuts extreme-event attribution bias tenfold

    Erik Haufs +2 · “Evidence Synthesis in Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution: From Attribution Measures to Model Parameters”

    2607.19516
  41. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    TV distance between two LLMs costs O(n/ε²) queries

    Eric Price +3 · “Total Variation Distance Estimation in Autoregressive Models”

    2607.19510
  42. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    GP surrogates learn their own input projection

    Eric Herrison Gyamfi +3 · “A Bayesian Framework for Built-in Input Dimension Reduction for Gaussian Process Modeling”

    2607.19498
  43. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Stacking beats single shapes when a pandemic overlaps a policy

    Benjamin Stockton +3 · “Interrupted Time Series Analysis Of Count Data With Nuisance Interruptions”

    2607.19493
  44. astro-ph.IM arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Joint pixel-space lens posteriors sampled in five seconds

    Guillaume Payeur +3 · “Strong Gravitational Lensing Posterior Sampling in Pixel-Space Using Diffusion Models and Recurrent Inference Machines”

    2607.19459
  45. stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Just 2·log2 K random hyperplanes separate K Gaussian classes

    Ioannis Papageorgiou +4 · “Fundamental limits of distributed multiclass classification from simple binary decisions”

    2607.19334
  46. cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Per-coordinate DDIM tweak provably samples true Bayesian posteriors

    Yuchen Jiao +4 · “Provable diffusion-based posterior sampling for linear inverse problems via DDIM”

    2607.19333
  47. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Tempered fractional memory, now for non-Gaussian data

    Guilherme Pumi +2 · “GARTFIMA Models: A Class of Observation-Driven Models with Tempered Fractional Dynamics”

    2607.19311
  48. stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    Breach geometry rules near dam

    Yuri Taglieri S\'ao +2 · “Metamodel-based methodology for uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis of tailings dam-breach flows”

    2607.19296
  49. stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    A survival model estimates the biomarker value of lowest risk

    Zhirui Fu +3 · “Rank-Based Estimation of U-Shaped Biomarker Risk Curves and Critical Points for Time-to-Event Outcomes”

    2607.19280
  50. q-fin.MF arXiv submitted 2026-07-21
    When denoisers see the noise

    Junchi Shen +1 · “Denoising Subordinated Probabilistic Models: Diffusion with a Tempered-Stable Volatility Clock, and What the Noise Mechanism Actually Controls”

    2607.19218