TOI-837 b has a true obliquity of 25.9+7.5-6.3 deg, the first planet younger than 100 Myr with accessible ψ incompatible with an aligned orbit, favoring primordial disc torque followed by disc-driven migration.
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emcee: The MCMC Hammer
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abstract
We introduce a stable, well tested Python implementation of the affine-invariant ensemble sampler for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposed by Goodman & Weare (2010). The code is open source and has already been used in several published projects in the astrophysics literature. The algorithm behind emcee has several advantages over traditional MCMC sampling methods and it has excellent performance as measured by the autocorrelation time (or function calls per independent sample). One major advantage of the algorithm is that it requires hand-tuning of only 1 or 2 parameters compared to $\sim N^2$ for a traditional algorithm in an N-dimensional parameter space. In this document, we describe the algorithm and the details of our implementation and API. Exploiting the parallelism of the ensemble method, emcee permits any user to take advantage of multiple CPU cores without extra effort. The code is available online at http://dan.iel.fm/emcee under the MIT License.
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- abstract We introduce a stable, well tested Python implementation of the affine-invariant ensemble sampler for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposed by Goodman & Weare (2010). The code is open source and has already been used in several published projects in the astrophysics literature. The algorithm behind emcee has several advantages over traditional MCMC sampling methods and it has excellent performance as measured by the autocorrelation time (or function calls per independent sample). One major advantage of the algorithm is that it requires hand-tuning of only 1 or 2 parameters compared to $\sim
- method The resultingP 1D mocks are assigned the same covariance matrix as the one em- ployed in the DESI DR1 analysis. These mocks do not include contaminants or systematics; however, we analyze them with the model presented in the previous section, which accounts for both. We extract cosmological constraints using the publicly available affine-invariant Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ensemble sampleremcee 7 [118]. At each step,emceeproposes 7https://emcee.readthedocs.io/en/stable/ - 23 - 0.9 1.0 1.1
- method For the BAO sector, we utilize the dataset of [89], which incorporates fiducial cosmology corrections through the ratior d/rfid, allowing for a consistent com- parison between theoretical predictions and observations. The exploration of the parameter space is carried out using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, implemented through the publicly available Python pack- ageemcee[90]. In this context, the SNIa nuisance pa- rameterMis treated as a free parameter of the Pan- theon dataset (see
- method RPG-2019-350, and Royal Society Grant No. RGS-R2-202004. LIGO was con- structed by the California Institute of Technology and Massachusetts Institute of Technology with funding from the National Science Foundation and operates un- der cooperative agreement PHY-0757058. We acknowledge use of iPython [86], Matplotlib [87, 88], NumPy [89], SciPy [90], emcee [91] and SeaBorn [92]. This is LIGO Document P2000231 Glossary and main symbols α(⃗λ ) The fraction of physical sources that are detectable by
- method PLANCK + PP, and (ii) CC + DESBAO + PLANCK + DES, as −2 lnLtot = 𝜒2 tot. (6.8) We estimate the likelihood by implementing the model in Python and use the publicly available affine-invariant Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ensemble sampler emcee [145] to obtain the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The resulting samples are then analyzed usingGetDist [146] to obtain marginalized 1D and 2D posterior distributions. Finally, we compare the statistical preference of the current model r
- method consistent solutions across cosmic epochs, and adopt uniform priors as listed in Tab. II. For sampling and likelihood eval- uation, we employ the nested samplerPolyChord, which is well suited for high-dimensional parameter spaces compared to affine-invariant MCMC samplers such asemcee[99-101]. The chains are analyzed usingGetDistto extract the best-fit values [102, 103]. Finally, we compare our models against flat ΛCDM using information criteria such as the Akaike Informa- tion Criterion (AIC) a
- method package that provides a common framework for writing DESI likelihoods. The BAO the- ory and likelihood is implemented in JAX [126] 20. Even though gradient-based sampling methods were implemented, we found that with analytic marginalization over broadband parameters that leaves a few sampled parameters, and using Jax just-in-time compilation and parallelization capabilities, the ensemble sampler emcee [127]21 provided well-sampled posterior estimates in a just a few minutes. In addition to MCMC
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representative citing papers
The DM distribution of unlocalized FRBs yields H0 = 73.8 +14.0/-12.3 km/s/Mpc with 18% uncertainty.
A new histogram-free likelihood method applied to simulated JWST observations of brown dwarfs shows that globular cluster ages can be determined with formal errors under 0.2 Gyr.
Derives analytical solutions and fitting formulae for Lyα spectra under cylindrical geometry including recoil and velocity gradients, validated against Monte Carlo simulations.
GraphNPE recovers a significantly lower central density for Boötes I consistent with a core while Draco remains marginally cuspy, and demonstrates that higher-order velocity moments reduce bias in dynamical modeling.
Asteroseismic masses average 1.29 Msun for Ba dwarfs versus 1.96 Msun for Ba giants, supporting main-sequence accretion evolution from dwarfs to giants, though models fail to match the observed [hs/ls] ratio.
76 N/O-enhanced galaxies at 4<z<8.5 are observed shortly after starbursts, either in the WR enrichment phase within 10 Myr or the AGB phase after 30-40 Myr following outflows.
JWST MIRI observations of 634 galaxies at 0.2<z<2 yield IR luminosity functions with faint-end slope α≈0.147, implying lower dust-obscured SFRD than previous ALMA/Herschel/Spitzer studies.
Direct detection of CO(3-2) at z=7.31 in REBELS-25 gives M_mol ~ 10^11 M_sun with f_gas ~0.95, confirming a massive molecular reservoir and showing low-J CO remains detectable in the Epoch of Reionization.
VLBI at 4.9 GHz plus multi-epoch survey data reveal a fading parsec-scale radio component near the optical center of a dwarf galaxy, interpreted as transient ejecta from IMBH accretion.
DIXE proposes CSS-based survey strategies covering 72.5% of the sky with 26-68 ks exposures and shows via simulation that MCMC collimator demodulation yields 1° point-source localization and 3° extended-source resolution.
A 6D kinematic census identifies 18 anomalous Cepheids with extreme orbits, including one possibly scattered by globular cluster E3, and finds consistency between dynamical and stellar ages.
Simultaneous measurement of low- and high-mass IMF slopes in 214 star-forming galaxies reveals diversity, weak correlation between ends, and links to stellar mass, star formation rate, and metallicity.
Introduces MGIC_rv, an information criterion that combines conditional RV likelihood with an effective parameter count for selecting multi-GP models focused on radial velocities.
High-resolution M-band spectroscopy detects super-stellar SiO in TWA 5 B, implying no significant magnesium-silicate clouds and formation consistent with core accretion beyond the CO snowline or gravitational instability with solid enrichment.
Deep interferometric observations of a z≈1.12 barred spiral reveal bar-driven molecular inflows at a rate matching the galaxy's star formation rate of ~36 M⊙/yr.
Simulations forecast that 10 years of Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer data could detect the cosmic dipole magnitude using strongly lensed GW events, with tighter bounds from combining double, triple, and quadruple lensed systems.
High-resolution interferometric imaging of eight post-AGB circumbinary discs reveals diverse inner-rim substructures including azimuthal brightness enhancements and arc-like features not explained by inclination alone.
SPHEREx data confirm 77 new luminous heavily reddened quasars at 1.5<z<3.9 that are hot-dust poor relative to unobscured quasars, supporting a blow-out feedback phase.
An Er3+ spin sensor in CaWO4 measures the hyperfine NMR spectrum of a single 93Nb nuclear spin-9/2 with Hertz resolution, determining its site, position, quadrupolar tensor, and two new terms in the spin Hamiltonian.
Galaxy pairwise peculiar velocities from Cosmicflows-4 yield M_ν = 0.24^{+0.34}_{-0.18} eV and η² = 2.14^{+0.30}_{-0.32} (7σ non-zero asymmetry) in the CMB framework, consistent with prior Planck results.
Non-polynomial quasi-topological gravity models reproduce the standard thermal history, generate dynamical dark energy of geometric origin, and fit supernova, cosmic chronometer, and BAO data competitively with ΛCDM.
DESI DR2 and ACT DR6 data yield 17σ LRG-velocity, 8.3σ ELG-velocity, and 6.8σ QSO-velocity detections plus a 3.1σ velocity-velocity signal, producing f_NL^loc = 15.9_{-34.4}^{+34.6} from the velocity field.
Bayesian MCMC fitting of a phenomenological model reveals that isospin asymmetry strongly suppresses alpha preformation probability in superheavy nuclei while reproducing shell effects and experimental half-lives.
citing papers explorer
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The 35-Myr old infant planet TOI-837 b has a mildly misaligned orbit
TOI-837 b has a true obliquity of 25.9+7.5-6.3 deg, the first planet younger than 100 Myr with accessible ψ incompatible with an aligned orbit, favoring primordial disc torque followed by disc-driven migration.
-
Dispersion Measure Distribution of Unlocalized Fast Radio Bursts as a Probe of the Hubble Constant
The DM distribution of unlocalized FRBs yields H0 = 73.8 +14.0/-12.3 km/s/Mpc with 18% uncertainty.
-
New Way to Date Globular Clusters: Brown Dwarf Cooling Sequences
A new histogram-free likelihood method applied to simulated JWST observations of brown dwarfs shows that globular cluster ages can be determined with formal errors under 0.2 Gyr.
-
Analytical and fitting formulae for solutions to Lyman-alpha radiative transfer equations: the effects of geometry, recoil, and velocity gradients
Derives analytical solutions and fitting formulae for Lyα spectra under cylindrical geometry including recoil and velocity gradients, validated against Monte Carlo simulations.
-
Dark Matter in Draco and Bo\"otes I: Hints of a Core in an Ultra-Faint Dwarf from Simulation-Based Inference
GraphNPE recovers a significantly lower central density for Boötes I consistent with a core while Draco remains marginally cuspy, and demonstrates that higher-order velocity moments reduce bias in dynamical modeling.
-
Unveiling the nature of barium stars. I. Asteroseismic masses and the evolutionary link between Ba dwarfs and giants
Asteroseismic masses average 1.29 Msun for Ba dwarfs versus 1.96 Msun for Ba giants, supporting main-sequence accretion evolution from dwarfs to giants, though models fail to match the observed [hs/ls] ratio.
-
Diverse Histories and Common Origins of Nitrogen-enhanced JWST Galaxies
76 N/O-enhanced galaxies at 4<z<8.5 are observed shortly after starbursts, either in the WR enrichment phase within 10 Myr or the AGB phase after 30-40 Myr following outflows.
-
MEGA and SMILES Find Fewer Dusty Galaxies than Expected at Cosmic Noon
JWST MIRI observations of 634 galaxies at 0.2<z<2 yield IR luminosity functions with faint-end slope α≈0.147, implying lower dust-obscured SFRD than previous ALMA/Herschel/Spitzer studies.
-
Direct detection of cool molecular gas in a star-forming galaxy at $z=7.31$
Direct detection of CO(3-2) at z=7.31 in REBELS-25 gives M_mol ~ 10^11 M_sun with f_gas ~0.95, confirming a massive molecular reservoir and showing low-J CO remains detectable in the Epoch of Reionization.
-
Detection of a parsec-scale, compact, and fading ejecta from an accreting massive black hole
VLBI at 4.9 GHz plus multi-epoch survey data reveal a fading parsec-scale radio component near the optical center of a dwarf galaxy, interpreted as transient ejecta from IMBH accretion.
-
DIffuse X-ray Explorer (DIXE): Sky Survey Strategy and Collimator Response Demodulation
DIXE proposes CSS-based survey strategies covering 72.5% of the sky with 26-68 ks exposures and shows via simulation that MCMC collimator demodulation yields 1° point-source localization and 3° extended-source resolution.
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Rogue Ones: Orbital census of Galactic Cepheids and their Anomalies
A 6D kinematic census identifies 18 anomalous Cepheids with extreme orbits, including one possibly scattered by globular cluster E3, and finds consistency between dynamical and stellar ages.
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Hector Galaxy Survey: Linking the low- and high-mass ends of the initial mass function in star-forming galaxies
Simultaneous measurement of low- and high-mass IMF slopes in 214 star-forming galaxies reveals diversity, weak correlation between ends, and links to stellar mass, star formation rate, and metallicity.
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A Model Selection Criterion for Multidimensional Gaussian Processes: Application to Radial Velocities
Introduces MGIC_rv, an information criterion that combines conditional RV likelihood with an effective parameter count for selecting multi-GP models focused on radial velocities.
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The CRIMSON survey I: super-stellar SiO in the directly imaged companion TWA 5 B from high-resolution M-band spectroscopy
High-resolution M-band spectroscopy detects super-stellar SiO in TWA 5 B, implying no significant magnesium-silicate clouds and formation consistent with core accretion beyond the CO snowline or gravitational instability with solid enrichment.
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NOEMA$^\rm{3D}$: A deep view of cold gas flows in a barred spiral galaxy at $z\sim1$
Deep interferometric observations of a z≈1.12 barred spiral reveal bar-driven molecular inflows at a rate matching the galaxy's star formation rate of ~36 M⊙/yr.
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Prospect of Measuring the Cosmic Dipole by Strongly Lensed Gravitational Waves Associated with Galaxy Surveys
Simulations forecast that 10 years of Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer data could detect the cosmic dipole magnitude using strongly lensed GW events, with tighter bounds from combining double, triple, and quadruple lensed systems.
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VLTI/PIONIER imaging of post-AGB binaries. An INSPIRING hunt for inner rim substructures in circumbinary discs
High-resolution interferometric imaging of eight post-AGB circumbinary discs reveals diverse inner-rim substructures including azimuthal brightness enhancements and arc-like features not explained by inclination alone.
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Hidden Monsters with SPHEREx I: A goldmine for heavily reddened quasars at cosmic noon
SPHEREx data confirm 77 new luminous heavily reddened quasars at 1.5<z<3.9 that are hot-dust poor relative to unobscured quasars, supporting a blow-out feedback phase.
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Precision hyperfine spectroscopy of an individual nuclear-spin-9/2
An Er3+ spin sensor in CaWO4 measures the hyperfine NMR spectrum of a single 93Nb nuclear spin-9/2 with Hertz resolution, determining its site, position, quadrupolar tensor, and two new terms in the spin Hamiltonian.
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Measuring neutrino mass and asymmetry through galaxy pairwise peculiar velocity
Galaxy pairwise peculiar velocities from Cosmicflows-4 yield M_ν = 0.24^{+0.34}_{-0.18} eV and η² = 2.14^{+0.30}_{-0.32} (7σ non-zero asymmetry) in the CMB framework, consistent with prior Planck results.
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Cosmologically viable non-polynomial quasi-topological gravity: explicit models, $\Lambda$CDM limit and observational constraints
Non-polynomial quasi-topological gravity models reproduce the standard thermal history, generate dynamical dark energy of geometric origin, and fit supernova, cosmic chronometer, and BAO data competitively with ΛCDM.
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Measurement of the galaxy-velocity power spectrum of DESI tracers with the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect using DESI DR2 and ACT DR6
DESI DR2 and ACT DR6 data yield 17σ LRG-velocity, 8.3σ ELG-velocity, and 6.8σ QSO-velocity detections plus a 3.1σ velocity-velocity signal, producing f_NL^loc = 15.9_{-34.4}^{+34.6} from the velocity field.
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Correlation between nuclear isospin asymmetry and $\alpha$-particle preformation probability for superheavy nuclei from a Bayesian inference
Bayesian MCMC fitting of a phenomenological model reveals that isospin asymmetry strongly suppresses alpha preformation probability in superheavy nuclei while reproducing shell effects and experimental half-lives.
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Accelerated Time-domain Analysis for Gravitational Wave Astronomy
Presents a practical fully time-domain end-to-end likelihood for gravitational-wave inference with structured linear algebra and GPU acceleration.
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Cosmological analysis of the DESI DR1 Lyman alpha 1D power spectrum
DESI DR1 Lyman-alpha data yields Δ²★=0.379±0.032 and n★=-2.309±0.019 at k★=0.009 km⁻¹s and z=3, sharpening N_eff, α_s, and β_s constraints by factors of 1.18-1.90 when combined with other probes.
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The velocity coherence scale: a novel probe of cosmic homogeneity and a potential standard ruler
The velocity coherence scale R_v marks the onset of statistical homogeneity, is redshift-independent in comoving coordinates, and connects directly to the matter-radiation equality scale k_eq in standard cosmology.
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High CO/H2 ratios supports an exocometary origin for a CO-rich debris disk
First direct H2 measurements in two CO-rich exocometary belts yield CO/H2 lower limits of >1.35e-3 and >3.09e-5, showing the gas is H2-poor and supporting secondary exocometary origin.
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First astrometric constraints on parity-violation in the gravitational wave background
First astrometric constraints on parity-violating SGWB amplitude are reported as h70²ΩV = -0.020 ± 0.025 (Gaia) and -0.004 ± 0.010 (VLBA) at 2σ, consistent with zero, over 4.2e-18 Hz to 1.1e-8 Hz.
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Tomographic Alcock-Paczynski Test with Marked Correlation Functions
First integration of tomographic AP tests with MCFs and PCA compression yields 48% and 45% tighter errors on Ω_m and w versus standard two-point functions.
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DESI 2024 III: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from Galaxies and Quasars
DESI measures BAO scales in six redshift bins with 0.52% combined precision using 5.7 million objects, detecting the signal at up to 9.1 sigma and finding larger scales than Planck LCDM at z<0.8.
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The panchromatic JWST dayside spectrum of WASP-121 b reveals a refractory-rich formation
Panchromatic JWST spectrum of WASP-121 b detects SiO and measures refractory-to-volatile ratios 3x stellar, consistent with mixed solid-gas accretion or migration with continued solid accretion.
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Variables in S-PLUS: I. Multiband period-luminosity relations and reddening maps of the Magellanic Clouds using classical Cepheids
First multiband P-L relations for Cepheids in S-PLUS system with reddening maps of the Magellanic Clouds from single-epoch photometry.
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Old and Bright: The Remarkable Radio Brightening of the Engine-driven SN 2012au Several Years After Explosion Signals the Birth of a PWN
Late-time radio observations of SN 2012au show re-brightening best explained by emission from a newborn pulsar wind nebula rather than continued shock interaction with circumstellar material.
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Constraints on Horndeski Gravity with Phantom Crossing
ACG models embed the observationally preferred phantom-crossing dark energy behavior inside a consistent Horndeski Lagrangian and achieve data fits of similar quality to w0waCDM while being narrowed by perturbative probes.
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The properties of tidal disruption event infrared counterparts produced by dust rings and inference of the observing angle
A toy model of dust rings in TDEs predicts brighter IR emission on-axis, explaining X-ray/IR correlations and enabling viewing-angle constraints from observed light curves.
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The Hubble Missing Globular Clusters Survey IV. Ultra-faint compact satellites of the Milky Way. The case of Koposov 2
Koposov 2 is shown to be an old (13.7 Gyr) star cluster with half-light radius 2.7 pc, absolute magnitude -0.95, and stellar mass 372 solar masses, supporting a star cluster classification over a dwarf galaxy.
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JADES: the mass-metallicity relation at $z=1-10$. New calibrations, extremely metal-poor galaxies, and chemical diversity
New stack-based strong-line calibrations from ~1500 spectra yield mass-metallicity relations at z=1-10 with decreasing metallicity toward higher redshift and no slope change, plus 50 EMPG candidates at 1-4% solar metallicity showing large scatter and opposite sSFR trends.
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A Disappearing Act: Constraints From "Missing" Flares of Repeating Partial TDE Candidates
Non-detections of expected third flares in TDE 2022dbl and TDE 2020vdq support rpTDE interpretation over independent events, with modeling favoring bound main-sequence star orbits and deep initial encounters.
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Steep Redshift Evolution of the Ionizing Escape Fraction at $z = 5$--$12$: Empirical Constraints and Comparison with Simulations
Empirical three-parameter fit to f_esc(M_h,z) yields steep redshift evolution with population-averaged escape fraction rising from ~2% at z=5 to ~9% at z=12.
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21cmEMUv3: a hybrid diffusion-LSTM emulator of 21cmFAST summary observables
21cmEMUv3 emulates the cylindrical 21cm power spectrum via score-based diffusion and six other 21cmFAST observables via LSTM networks at sub-percent accuracy, then uses the emulator to infer a lower limit on soft-band X-ray luminosity from HERA data.
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Subarcsecond Multi-line Observations of NH$_3$ with VLA toward the Class 0 Source IRAS 16293-2422
New VLA multi-line NH3 observations of IRAS 16293-2422 reveal hot gas at 200-300 K near the protostars, attributed to shock and accretion heating.
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JWST Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Rule Out a 2032 Lunar Impact and Demonstrate a New Regime for Planetary Defense Follow-up
JWST/NIRCam observations of 2024 YR4 extend the orbital arc by eight months, reduce 2032 lunar encounter uncertainty by >30x, and rule out impact with a 22,900 ± 800 km miss distance.
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Latitudinal variations in Neptune's temperature profile observed with ALMA
ALMA CO(3-2) observations with MCMC retrievals show latitudinal temperature trends on Neptune, including a cold southern polar layer at 300-600 mbar, consistent with Voyager at 10-100 mbar but new at deeper levels.
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Milky Way Dynamics Favor Dark Matter over Modified Gravity Models
Milky Way radial and vertical dynamics are inconsistent with MOND and STVG but consistent with dark matter halos, disfavoring the former at high significance.
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A single power law for the TRAPPIST-1 flare distribution across four orders of magnitude in energy
TRAPPIST-1 flares follow a single power law N(≥E_TESS) ∝ E_TESS^{-0.753} from 10^{29} to 10^{33} erg after sensitivity corrections and bandpass conversion.
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Confronting Color Glass Condensate at next-to-leading order with HERA data
A Bayesian global fit at full NLO+NLL accuracy extracts the posterior distribution for the non-perturbative initial condition of the NLO Balitsky-Kovchegov equation from HERA inclusive and charm data.
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If at First You Don't Succeed, Trispectrum: I. Estimating the Matter Power Spectrum Covariance with Higher-Order Statistics
Estimators from squeezed bispectrum and collapsed trispectrum recover unbiased small-scale matter power spectrum covariance at the percent level using 25 Quijote simulations.
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AI-assisted modeling and Bayesian inference of unpolarized quark transverse momentum distributions from Drell-Yan data
An AI-assisted Bayesian framework extracts TMD PDFs from global Drell-Yan data using surrogate models for scalable MCMC sampling.
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Probing Collapsed Dark Matter Halos with Fast Radio Bursts
Core-collapsed SIDM halos produce longer FRB image time delays than CDM halos, enabling future surveys to constrain self-interaction cross sections above roughly 18-40 cm²/g depending on collapse timing.