INDEX
Every paper Pith has read and judged, in one searchable index.
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stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Exact likelihood corrects snowball sampling bias in network models
Nurzhan Sapargali +2 · “Likelihood Inference for Latent Network Models under Snowball Sampling”
2606.21466 -
math.PR arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Averaged Adam converges at rate n to the minus 1/2
Steffen Dereich +1 · “Central limit theorem for the averaged Adam optimizer”
2606.21433 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Optimal kernel subsampling follows from covariance trace
Eyal Vayness +1 · “Subsampling for supervised learning in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces”
2606.21260 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Multi-source PPI yields oracle-optimal confidence regions by weight choice
Wenhui Li +2 · “Multi-Source Prediction-Powered Inference”
2606.21232 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-19KRR matches Hölder minimax rate
Yuxuan Hou · “When Kernel Ridge Regression Meets the H\"older-Zygmund Class: Minimax Optimality and Failure of Properness”
2607.26065 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Orthogonal GPs decouple physics from discrepancies
Swapnil Manna +2 · “Orthogonal Discrepancy Kernels for Learning with Partial Physics”
2606.21199 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Orthogonal kernels separate physics parameters from discrepancies
Swapnil Manna +2 · “Orthogonal Discrepancy Kernels for Learning with Partial Physics”
2606.21199 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Why plug-in causal estimates can jump under tiny data shifts
Alexis Bellot · “Two Layers of Instability in Causal Estimation”
2606.21185 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Causal point estimates can jump with tiny data changes
Alexis Bellot · “Two Layers of Instability in Causal Estimation”
2606.21185 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-06-19AI models lead on extreme weather forecasts after fair scoring
Tobias Biegert +3 · “Towards Fair Comparisons of AI- and Physics-Based Weather Models for Extreme Events via the Weighted Potential CRPS”
2606.21170 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Spectral slope counts dead directions at network singularities
Tejas Pradeep Shirodkar +1 · “Dead-Direction Signatures: A Cheap Spectral Reading of Singular Complexity”
2606.21158 -
cs.CY arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Hybrid model scores intersections for safety every 15 minutes
Jason Cusati +1 · “Virginia Tech Transportation Safety Index (VTTSI)”
2606.21154 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Standard metrics miss failures in feedback alignment
Yuren Hao +2 · “What Accuracy and Gradient Cosine Miss: Evaluating Feedback Alignment via Scale Stability, Reference Validity, and Depth Utility”
2606.21126 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Empirical Bayes reduces error in DP Gaussian outputs
Minwoo Kim +2 · “Enhancing Differentially Private Mechanisms via Empirical Bayes”
2606.21107 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Density ratios compress BMA posteriors to few support regions
Hanqing Li +2 · “Bayesian Model Averaging under Predictor Redundancy via Density-Ratio Posterior Compression”
2606.21080 -
q-bio.OT arXiv submitted 2026-06-192-point THI rise lifts hen vocal entropy by 0.54 nats
Yashan Dhaliwal +2 · “HenTwin: A Multimodal Digital Twin Framework for Longitudinal Biological State Monitoring in Laying Hens”
2607.28652 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Triage scores weigh outcomes under both action and inaction
Kosuke Imai +3 · “Triage Score: A Counterfactual Risk Assessment Instrument”
2606.21050 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Medians and coverage rates beat means for checking distributional approximations
Thomas Lumley +2 · “De-meaning Simulation Studies”
2606.21038 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Diffusion replaces Gaussian transitions in state space models
Jack Ruder +1 · “Diffusion-Driven State Space Models”
2606.21036 -
stat.OT arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Coaching advice lifts basketball player sync probability above 70%
Jun Ichikawa +3 · “Movement synchronization in complex and dynamic team coordination: Relationship with mutual anticipation”
2606.21009 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Causal features make school typologies separate test scores better
Anderson L. de Paula +2 · “Analysis of Public Schools Educational Performance Based on Causal Models and Hierarchical Clustering”
2607.14124 -
stat.CO arXiv submitted 2026-06-19Genetic algorithm automates bin selection for rarefied diversity analysis
Mo Li · “MBRarefy: data-adaptive multi-bin rarefying for alpha diversity association analysis”
2606.21000 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-18kNN estimators target linear and functional parts under missing responses
Germ\'an Aneiros +1 · “kNN estimation in semi-functional partial linear regression with missing responses at random”
2606.20930 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Zero-shot model does causal discovery on large time series panels
Shravan Talupula +1 · “Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks for Panel Data with Learned Reliability Signals”
2606.20889 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Adversarial observation changes sway RL policies through latent states
M. Santos-Pascual +1 · “Adversarial observations in probabilistic State-Space Models for robust Reinforcement Learning”
2606.20880 -
cs.SI arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Synthesis layer tracks shifting network mechanisms from single snapshots
Marios Papamichalis +2 · “Bayesian Predictive Synthesis for Dynamic Networks: Forecasting and Identifying Structural Mechanisms”
2606.26136 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Learning target sets utility-risk balance in tabular flow models
Bahrul Ilmi Nasution · “Understanding Latent Flow Models for Tabular Data Synthesis: Targets, Paths, and Sampling”
2606.20878 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Martingales that bet on variance and skewness of p-values
Johan Hallberg Szabadv\'ary · “Betting on Moments: Legendre Jumper Martingales for Online Exchangeability Testing”
2606.20859 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Legendre polynomials let martingales bet on variance and skewness
Johan Hallberg Szabadv\'ary · “Betting on Moments: Legendre Jumper Martingales for Online Exchangeability Testing”
2606.20859 -
cs.AI arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Pre-fine-tuning activations predict post-training misalignment
Yuchen Zhang +3 · “What Shapes Emergent Misalignment? Insights from Training Dynamics, Model Priors, and Data”
2606.20814 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Deterministic predictors match optimal multicalibration rates
Georgy Noarov +1 · “Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction”
2606.20557 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Hypergraph selection raises power while controlling false discoveries
Sarah Organ +2 · “Hypergraph Variable Selection with False Discovery Rate Control”
2606.20514 -
q-bio.PE arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Quantum Game of Life fits West Nile virus spread in Italy
Andrea Fontana +5 · “West Nile virus outbreak in Italy modelled with the quantum Game of Life”
2606.20489 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Heavier tails improve Bayesian adaptation to unknown smoothness
Sergios Agapiou +2 · “Leveraging tails for adaptation”
2606.20480 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Structured neural net predicts competing failure times
Jie Min +2 · “SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with Application to GPU Data”
2606.20451 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Private Rate-Double-Robust Inference
M\'at\'e Kormos +1
2606.20427 -
q-fin.CP arXiv submitted 2026-06-18RMSRE calibration equals weighted least squares
Philipp Mahler +1 · “Advanced Calibration Analysis and Tools: Identifying Influential Observations in Stochastic Interest Rate Model Calibration”
2606.20420 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Skewed-t mixture confirms S&P 500 bimodality
Marco Bee +1 · “Flexible modeling of bimodal distributions via skewed-$t$ mixtures”
2606.20406 -
math.OC arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Robust $Q$-learning for mean-field control under Wasserstein uncertainty in common noise
Mathieu Lauri\`ere +2
2606.20356 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-18ML-UMR synthesizes disconnected evidence for unanchored comparisons
Conor Chandler +1 · “Anchors Away: Navigating Unanchored Indirect Comparisons with Multilevel Unanchored Meta-Regression (ML-UMR)”
2606.20341 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Physics view accounts for deep learning's evasion of classical stats
Itay Lavie +2 · “Statistical Properties of Training & Generalization”
2606.20299 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Physics lens ties scaling laws to deep learning generalization
Itay Lavie +2 · “Statistical Properties of Training & Generalization”
2606.20299 -
econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Two-sample IV uses only six summary statistics for efficient estimates
Fatima Kasenally +2 · “Two-Sample IV: Efficient Two-Step Estimation and Tests for Overidentification and Weak-Instruments”
2606.20240 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Uncertain models extend fixed-effects analysis to Latin squares
Yaru Cheng +1 · “Analysis of uncertain fixed-effects model for Latin square designs”
2606.20226 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Future states recover missing rewards for off-policy evaluation
Ziheng Wei +2 · “Off-Policy Evaluation for Missingness-Aware Policies in MDPs with Rewards Missing Not at Random”
2606.20206 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-18One-step correction gives Bayesian mediation estimates frequentist coverage
Yuhua Zhang +1 · “A case study of causal mediation using Bayesian nonparametrics and semiparametric corrections”
2606.20148 -
stat.CO arXiv submitted 2026-06-18DASH cuts dimensions to lift Gurobi incumbents on tough MIQPs
Pinzhang Cheng · “DASH: A Dimensionality Reduction Method for Large-scale Convex MIQP with Applications in Subset Portfolio Selection”
2606.20141 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Graph communities turn collinearity into stable themes for small Delphi panels
Yuri Calleo +2 · “Community detection in small-sample ordinal regimes: A benchmarking framework for Delphi data”
2606.20114 -
stat.OT arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Law of iterated expectation yields g-formula for causal effects
Ashley I. Naimi +4 · “A Law of Iterated Expectation Primer for Causal Inference”
2606.20078 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-06-18Double sequential test achieves risk efficiency for exponential location shifts
Ashwani Rajput +1 · “A minimum-risk and cost-efficient two-sample sequential testing framework for the shifted exponential models with application to precipitation data”
2606.20069