One acceleration measurement equals ~10^5 phase-space measurements for local dark matter density estimation, with acceleration outperforming Jeans modeling in both equilibrium and perturbed Milky Way simulations.
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Establishes an empirical concentration inequality for the empirical CDF of a functional on regenerative Markov chains, with data-dependent leading term and lower-order convergence bound.
MACROCAST is the first leakage-free time series foundation model for real-time macroeconomic forecasting, trained exclusively on synthetic series and vintage data, outperforming AR(1), Chronos-2, BVAR, and DFM benchmarks on FRED-MD.
The Paired Swap Permutation Test is an exact non-parametric procedure that compares explanatory power of two dependent predictors via symmetric within-subject swapping for categorical data and ECDF mapping for continuous data.
First statistically significant detection of dayside silicate clouds on a Neptunian-mass exoplanet, with CO and CO2 detections and C/O ratio of 0.984 from JWST spectra.
Derives closed-form solutions including scalar inverse-gradient density formulas for f-divergence, Bregman, and Rényi penalized variational problems at the measure level.
An iterative AI reasoning process proposes new dynamical dark energy equations of state that are competitive with traditional forms on supernova, BAO, and Planck data.
Direct fixed-weight solver for free-support Wasserstein medians relocates atoms using OT barycentric projections and inverse-distance weights, achieving monotone descent on smoothed objectives with fewer subproblems than nested Weiszfeld baselines.
JWST NIRISS/SOSS data yield a transmission spectrum of the 23 Myr V1298 Tau c showing H2O absorption and an atmospheric metallicity of 14.8^{+56}_{-12} times solar, lower than mature planets of similar mass.
A trans-dimensional Bayesian model set averaging framework for 13C-MFA that averages flux estimates over uncertain network topologies using reversible jump MCMC and diffusive nested sampling.
Introduces bridge score for covariate balancing in mediator stage and derives sharp pointwise variance bounds on unidentified mediator-outcome confounding with residual budget calibration and Bayesian inference.
AM-PPI generalizes active statistical inference to multiple predictors with per-instance adaptive routing, yielding 10-40% narrower confidence intervals than single-predictor baselines in healthcare monitoring tasks.
A new class of priors on context trees is defined by node-weighting functions, enabling exact marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors via extensions of CTW and CTM algorithms.
QUEST measures uncertainty via the Lebesgue volume of highest-density regions of a distribution's support, evaluated at robustness parameter alpha, and claims to satisfy UQ axioms while outperforming variance and differential entropy on selective prediction tasks.
Damped harmonic oscillator dark energy EoS fitted to CMB+BAO+BBN+chronometers+SNIa data yields H0 values reducing tension to 1.4 sigma for DESY5/Union3 while Pantheon+ prefers near-critical damping; Bayesian evidence inconclusive vs LambdaCDM.
A Bayesian search calibrated on 3,493 meteorite analyses finds strong evidence for a siderophile-enriched processed template in only a small fraction of 697 polluted white dwarf records, with posterior medians of 0.011 and 0.041.
KAPLAN-HR applies B-spline KANs to nonparametric hazard estimation in survival analysis, recovering GAMs in the single-layer case, capturing interactions via deeper layers, with convergence rates independent of covariate dimension for KAN-representable targets, and competitive performance on six cli
Proposes adaptive multiple importance sampling for robust Bayesian model evidence estimation under parameter non-identifiability, shown to outperform deterministic methods on ecological case studies while being cheaper than MCMC.
Six years of UV/X-ray monitoring of ESO 511-G030 reveals a >10x UV rise from the accretion disk, tight disk-corona coupling above ~1% Eddington, and breakdown below, indicating an accretion-state transition.
Domain adaptation with an ensemble of CNN and transformer models trained on DES detects 20,180 LSBGs and 434 UDGs in KiDS DR5, with structural parameters and environmental trends consistent with known samples.
A new stepwise 2D tracing method resolves inconsistencies in weak-lensing detection of curved intracluster filaments in Abell 2744 that global matched-filter scans cannot handle.
A non-stationary Markov process with bivariate extreme value theory attributes full heatwave time series over Europe to anthropogenic forcing via likelihood ratios between ERA5 and CMIP6 runs, finding strong evidence since the 1970s but no signal beyond mean temperature increase.
A survey and benchmark of ~60 PSD algorithms on two radiation datasets finds deep learning models (MLPs and hybrids) often outperform traditional statistical methods, with an open-source Python/MATLAB toolbox and datasets released.
Using lensed JWST data behind Abell S1063, the UVLF at z~6-11 is fit with gradual quadratic turnover, yielding no evidence for turnover to M_UV=-13.5 at z=6, exclusion limits on turnover models, and lower bounds showing faint galaxies contribute >50% of UV luminosity density and ~64% of ionizing pho
citing papers explorer
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An Acceleration is Worth a Hundred Thousand Phase Space Measurements
One acceleration measurement equals ~10^5 phase-space measurements for local dark matter density estimation, with acceleration outperforming Jeans modeling in both equilibrium and perturbed Milky Way simulations.
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A data-dependent DKW inequality for regenerative Markov chains
Establishes an empirical concentration inequality for the empirical CDF of a functional on regenerative Markov chains, with data-dependent leading term and lower-order convergence bound.
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MACROCAST: A Vintage-Consistent Time Series Foundation Model for Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting
MACROCAST is the first leakage-free time series foundation model for real-time macroeconomic forecasting, trained exclusively on synthetic series and vintage data, outperforming AR(1), Chronos-2, BVAR, and DFM benchmarks on FRED-MD.
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Exact Comparison of Explanatory Strength of Two Dependent Predictors
The Paired Swap Permutation Test is an exact non-parametric procedure that compares explanatory power of two dependent predictors via symmetric within-subject swapping for categorical data and ECDF mapping for continuous data.
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Glossy Silicate Clouds on the Scorched Dayside of LTT9779b
First statistically significant detection of dayside silicate clouds on a Neptunian-mass exoplanet, with CO and CO2 detections and C/O ratio of 0.984 from JWST spectra.
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Closed-form solutions to some generalized variational inference problems
Derives closed-form solutions including scalar inverse-gradient density formulas for f-divergence, Bregman, and Rényi penalized variational problems at the measure level.
-
Physics-guided discovery of dynamical dark-energy equations of state through iterative AI reasoning
An iterative AI reasoning process proposes new dynamical dark energy equations of state that are competitive with traditional forms on supernova, BAO, and Planck data.
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Fast Computation of Free-Support Wasserstein Medians
Direct fixed-weight solver for free-support Wasserstein medians relocates atoms using OT barycentric projections and inverse-distance weights, achieving monotone descent on smoothed objectives with fewer subproblems than nested Weiszfeld baselines.
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KRONOS I: The $1{-}2.8\mu$m JWST Transmission Spectrum of the 23 Myr V1298 Tau c
JWST NIRISS/SOSS data yield a transmission spectrum of the 23 Myr V1298 Tau c showing H2O absorption and an atmospheric metallicity of 14.8^{+56}_{-12} times solar, lower than mature planets of similar mass.
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Trans-dimensional Bayesian model averaging for $^{13}$C-based metabolic flux analysis: Evidence-based flux inference under structural model uncertainty
A trans-dimensional Bayesian model set averaging framework for 13C-MFA that averages flux estimates over uncertain network topologies using reversible jump MCMC and diffusive nested sampling.
-
Sensitivity analysis for causal mediation: bridge score, sharp sensitivity bounds, and calibration
Introduces bridge score for covariate balancing in mediator stage and derives sharp pointwise variance bounds on unidentified mediator-outcome confounding with residual budget calibration and Bayesian inference.
-
Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference
AM-PPI generalizes active statistical inference to multiple predictors with per-instance adaptive routing, yielding 10-40% narrower confidence intervals than single-predictor baselines in healthcare monitoring tasks.
-
Context Tree Prior Distributions based on Node Weighting with exact Bayes Factors
A new class of priors on context trees is defined by node-weighting functions, enabling exact marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors via extensions of CTW and CTM algorithms.
-
On the QUEST for Uncertainty Quantification via Highest Density Regions
QUEST measures uncertainty via the Lebesgue volume of highest-density regions of a distribution's support, evaluated at robustness parameter alpha, and claims to satisfy UQ axioms while outperforming variance and differential entropy on selective prediction tasks.
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Damped Harmonic Oscillator Dark Energy and the Hubble Tension
Damped harmonic oscillator dark energy EoS fitted to CMB+BAO+BBN+chronometers+SNIa data yields H0 values reducing tension to 1.4 sigma for DESY5/Union3 while Pantheon+ prefers near-critical damping; Bayesian evidence inconclusive vs LambdaCDM.
-
A Calibrated Bayesian Search for Potential Chemical Technosignatures in Polluted White Dwarf
A Bayesian search calibrated on 3,493 meteorite analyses finds strong evidence for a siderophile-enriched processed template in only a small fraction of 697 polluted white dwarf records, with posterior medians of 0.011 and 0.041.
-
KAPLAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Prognostic Learnable Activation Networks for Survival Analysis
KAPLAN-HR applies B-spline KANs to nonparametric hazard estimation in survival analysis, recovering GAMs in the single-layer case, capturing interactions via deeper layers, with convergence rates independent of covariate dimension for KAN-representable targets, and competitive performance on six cli
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Reliable model selection in the presence of parameter non-identifiability
Proposes adaptive multiple importance sampling for robust Bayesian model evidence estimation under parameter non-identifiability, shown to outperform deterministic methods on ecological case studies while being cheaper than MCMC.
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Directly tracking the re-brightening of a supermassive black hole accretion disk
Six years of UV/X-ray monitoring of ESO 511-G030 reveals a >10x UV rise from the accretion disk, tight disk-corona coupling above ~1% Eddington, and breakdown below, indicating an accretion-state transition.
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From DES to KiDS: Domain adaptation for cross-survey detection of low-surface-brightness galaxies
Domain adaptation with an ensemble of CNN and transformer models trained on DES detects 20,180 LSBGs and 434 UDGs in KiDS DR5, with structural parameters and environmental trends consistent with known samples.
-
Weak-lensing Analysis of Intracluster Filaments in Abell 2744: Matched-filter Scans and Stepwise 2D Tracing
A new stepwise 2D tracing method resolves inconsistencies in weak-lensing detection of curved intracluster filaments in Abell 2744 that global matched-filter scans cannot handle.
-
Non-stationary time series attribution for heatwaves over Europe
A non-stationary Markov process with bivariate extreme value theory attributes full heatwave time series over Europe to anthropogenic forcing via likelihood ratios between ERA5 and CMIP6 runs, finding strong evidence since the 1970s but no signal beyond mean temperature increase.
-
Pulse Shape Discrimination Algorithms: Survey and Benchmark
A survey and benchmark of ~60 PSD algorithms on two radiation datasets finds deep learning models (MLPs and hybrids) often outperform traditional statistical methods, with an open-source Python/MATLAB toolbox and datasets released.
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Tilting at the Turnover: Modeling the Faint-End of the UV Luminosity Function Behind Abell s1063 with JWST
Using lensed JWST data behind Abell S1063, the UVLF at z~6-11 is fit with gradual quadratic turnover, yielding no evidence for turnover to M_UV=-13.5 at z=6, exclusion limits on turnover models, and lower bounds showing faint galaxies contribute >50% of UV luminosity density and ~64% of ionizing pho
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ASTEP confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets with extremely low densities transiting TOI-791
Two extremely low-density Jupiter-sized planets on long-period orbits around TOI-791 were confirmed via ground-based photometry and TTV-derived masses.
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Statistical validation and full-sphere extension of a Bayesian model for human static sound localisation
Bayesian sound localization model with derived likelihood validated on simulated and 33-participant data, then used to show full-sphere coverage and high-frequency fidelity dominate HRTF template quality over interpolation algorithm.
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Accelerating Discovery: Model-Agnostic Likelihoods for the Reinterpretation of Particle Physics Results and their Application to the Belle II $B^{+}\to K^{+}\nu\bar{\nu}$ Measurement
A reweighting method creates model-agnostic likelihoods from histogram analyses, applied to Belle II B+ to K+ nu nubar data for WET constraints and light new physics searches.
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Decoupled Kinematics and Excitation in the Compton-thick AGN NGC 6552: Spatially Resolved KOOLS-IFU Observations
IFU spectroscopy of NGC 6552 reveals decoupled ionized gas kinematics and excitation, with outflow energetics consistent with multi-phase outflow models.
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Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions
A new classifier derived from determinism and statistical consistency requirements achieves zero consistency error by construction and outperforms baselines on Adult, COMPAS, and Bank Marketing datasets.
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When Should Forecasting Models Be Re-Specified? A Cost-Sensitive Trigger for Adaptive Model-Form Updating
A cost-sensitive trigger using specification debt for deciding when to re-specify forecasting model forms, shown on M4 data to match full-update accuracy at 28% of the compute cost.
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Post Selection Estimation of Sharpe Ratios
Compares post-selection estimators for the maximum observed Sharpe ratio using simulations and finds James-Stein shrinkage yields lowest bias and RMSE across tested parameters.
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Density Evolution: A Multiscale View of Density Estimation
A review reframing density estimation as 'density evolution' across scales, linking kernel smoothing to heat flow, mixtures to compression, and topology to level sets, while stating three structural results on modes, Gaussian semigroups, and log-concavity.
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Compactness Peaks and Subpopulations: Probing Stellar Physics and Formation Channels of Merging Binary Black Holes
A stripped-star-motivated five-component model for binary black hole populations is preferred over the LVK baseline by a log10 Bayes factor of 7.69 and attributes the observed mass features to isolated, dynamical, and hierarchical formation channels.
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Estimating treatment duration effects via clone-censor-weight: a breast cancer case study
The clone-censor-weight approach is formalized and tested via simulations before application to a breast cancer cohort comparing 2 versus 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen, yielding estimates with substantial uncertainty.
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Chemistry and Isotope Ratios of Substellar Atmospheres in the $\beta$ Pictoris Young Moving Group and Vicinity
Atmospheric retrievals on CRIRES+ spectra of 2MASS J0249-0557 c and two eta Pic YMG brown dwarfs give solar-like C/O, metallicity, and carbon isotope ratios, supporting gravitational collapse formation for the companion.
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Stellar separation shapes spin-orbit alignment in visual binaries
Visual binary stars exhibit two subpopulations of spin-orbit alignment divided at 31-38 AU, with close systems tightly aligned (Fisher kappa=48) and wide systems less aligned (kappa=6), consistent with distinct formation pathways.
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Dealing with Stochastic Volatility in Time Series Using the R Package stochvol
stochvol is an R package providing MCMC-based Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility models, with examples on exchange rate data.
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Constraining leptonic and hadronic gamma-ray emission from HESS J1825-137 and its environment
Multi-telescope spectral modeling of HESS J1825-137 using Naima and MCMC shows leptonic dominance for existing GeV-TeV data but lepto-hadronic preference when adding simulated CTAO or LHAASO UHE points.
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Bayesian analysis of Gaia epoch astrometry and radial velocities with kima
kima is extended with Gaia astrometry orbit models for Bayesian fitting and model comparison, validated on real and simulated data.
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CORALIE radial-velocity search for companions around evolved stars (CASCADES) V. Three planetary companions and achievable precision
Three massive planets detected around HD125136 (2.26 MJup, 850 d) and HD127195 (0.66 and 0.78 MJup, 535 d and 834 d) via Bayesian Keplerian modeling of CORALIE RV series; one additional signal attributed to activity.
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The mass of TOI-1883 b: A low density super-Neptune in the ridge regime transiting an early-M dwarf
Mass of 13.7 Earth masses and density 0.4 g cm^{-3} measured for TOI-1883 b, a super-Neptune in the ridge regime around an early-M dwarf, with implications for disk migration and photoevaporation.
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FR0 radio galaxy jets -- I. linking jet dynamics and high-energy emission in LEDA 55267 and LEDA 58287
3D RHD simulations of FR0 jets in LEDA 55267 and LEDA 58287 show recollimation shocks driving compactness via turbulence and deceleration, with SED modeling predicting lepto-hadronic emission at TeV energies as a testable forecast.
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Unified Cosmological Scenario in Holographic $f(Q)$ gravity: From Inflation to Late-Time Acceleration
A holographic f(Q) = ζ Q^n model yields slow-roll inflation consistent with Planck 2018 and late-time expansion compatible with CC+BAO data via CPL parametrization, with mild high-z deviations from ΛCDM.
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A Revised Mass and Period for the Habitable Zone super-Earth GJ 3378b: A Planet Straddling the Cosmic Shoreline
Joint radial-velocity analysis revises GJ 3378b's period to 21.45 days and minimum mass to 2.3 Earth masses, placing the habitable-zone planet near the cosmic shoreline.
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Time-dependent structural equation modeling of fans' football fever using activity tracking data during the 2025 DFB Cup final
Football fever in spectators follows a V-shaped time course captured as a latent process from heart rate and stress data via time-dependent structural equation modeling.
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A Multiwavelength Interpretation of HESS J1857+026 Emission Using the Fermi-LAT, VERITAS, and HAWC Observatories
Multi-instrument analysis interprets HESS J1857+026 as a pulsar wind nebula with age 16-21 kyr and B-field 0.4-1.6 μG, plus possible hadronic emission below 10 GeV and suppressed local diffusion.
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Faraday Complexity and Depolarisation in a High-Rotation-Measure Radio Galaxy from the Spectra and Polarisation In Cutouts of Extragalactic Sources (SPICE-RACS) DR2
Bayesian model selection on SPICE-RACS DR2 data for source RACS_0900-28_7036 favors one Burn-slab plus two external Faraday dispersion components, with dominant RM of 345.5 rad m^{-2}.
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It's all in your head -- fine-tuning arguments do not require aleatoric uncertainty
Bayesian statistics supplies an automatic Occam's razor that penalizes unnatural models needing precise fine-tuning to agree with data, justifying naturalness arguments without aleatoric uncertainty.
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Observational Constraints on $f(Q,T)$ Gravity in the Presence of DBI-Essence Scalar Field
Derives background solutions for linear f(Q,T)=αQ+βT plus DBI field and reports MCMC posteriors from Hubble, BAO, and SNIa data that are consistent with late-time constraints.
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