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arxiv: 2606.31926 · v1 · pith:GCSILXYXnew · submitted 2026-06-30 · 🌌 astro-ph.HE

A Suppressed Volumetric Rate of High-Luminosity Mid-Infrared Selected Tidal Disruption Events

Prajna Nair , Christos Panagiotou , Megan Masterson , Kishalay De , Erin Kara , Eleanor Winkler , M. Subhi Abo Rdan This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-07-01 03:42 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.HE
keywords tidal disruption eventsinfrared transientssupermassive black holesNEOWISEluminosity functionvolumetric ratemid-infrared selection
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The pith

High-luminosity mid-infrared TDEs occur at a suppressed volumetric rate.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper performs a systematic search of the NEOWISE archive for rare, highly luminous infrared tidal disruption events using a new criterion based on the time evolution of the W1-W2 color. It identifies 10 candidates with peak W2 luminosities above 3 times 10 to the 43 erg per second and measures their volumetric rate at 1.2 plus or minus 0.4 times 10 to the -10 per cubic megaparsec per year. This measured rate lies below the extrapolation of the local luminosity function derived from fainter, lower-luminosity TDEs. The authors interpret the turnover as the natural result of fewer tidal disruptions occurring in galaxies that host more massive supermassive black holes.

Core claim

A search of the NEOWISE archive using W1-W2 color evolution identifies 10 high-luminosity IR TDEs with a volumetric rate of 1.2^{+0.5}_{-0.4} times 10^{-10} Mpc^{-3} yr^{-1}; this rate is suppressed relative to the local luminosity function of lower-luminosity events, consistent with reduced TDE production around larger black holes.

What carries the argument

W1-W2 color evolution selection applied to NEOWISE photometry to isolate luminous IR TDE candidates, followed by direct comparison of their derived volumetric rate against the local lower-luminosity TDE luminosity function.

If this is right

  • The TDE luminosity function turns over at high luminosities rather than continuing to rise.
  • Tidal disruptions become less common once black hole masses exceed a threshold set by the tidal radius falling inside the event horizon.
  • The ten candidates receive independent confirmation of TDE identity from the match between their rate and the expected suppression.
  • Infrared time-domain searches can recover TDEs at luminosities and distances missed by optical surveys.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same color-evolution technique can be applied to future infrared surveys to extend the TDE luminosity function to still higher luminosities.
  • Combining optical and infrared samples allows a single luminosity function to be constructed across the full accessible black-hole mass range.
  • The measured suppression provides an indirect constraint on the high-mass end of the supermassive black hole occupation fraction in galaxies.

Load-bearing premise

The ten candidates selected solely by W1-W2 color evolution are all genuine TDEs with negligible contamination.

What would settle it

A multi-wavelength or spectroscopic campaign showing that more than one or two of the ten candidates are instead active galactic nuclei or supernovae would remove the observed rate suppression.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.31926 by Christos Panagiotou, Eleanor Winkler, Erin Kara, Kishalay De, Megan Masterson, M. Subhi Abo Rdan, Prajna Nair.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Color evolution plots and aperture photome￾try light curves for Fairall 9 (confirmed AGN), Mrk 590 (confirmed CLAGN), WTP14adbjsh (confirmed TDE), and WTP17aakzqt (categorized as a TDE in our sample). Unlike AGN, TDEs show a clear rise and decline of their W1-W2 colors, due to the accretion event temporarily dominating the observed light. years (Tinyanont et al. 2016), unlike IR selected TDEs (Masterson et… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: BPT diagnostic plots for the TDE candidates with spectra available. The numbered points correspond to the ID of each object listed in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Light curves of WTP17aanbho (ATLAS forced photometry and WISE aperture photometry) and WTP17aaiyxe (GAIA G and WISE W2 aperture photometry). The ATLAS data was plotted with a magnitude offset of 2.5, and the GAIA light curve was plotted with a magnitude offset of 3.5. The time of the PTSS detection of AT2017fot (the optical counterpart of WTP17aanbho reported on TNS) is denoted by the dark grey dashed line… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Luminosity function of mid-IR TDEs. The top panel shows the redshift of our sources versus log Lpeak W2, with the vertical lines representing the boundaries of the luminosity bin each source was placed in below. The lower panel shows the calculated IR TDE rate per bin versus log Lpeak W2 for our sample in black. We have also plotted the X-ray luminosity function from Grotova et al. (2025) in green, the opt… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Difference light curves of the final TDE sample, also listed in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Color evolution diagrams for sources that were noted as displaying inconclusive color evolution. These sources were later eliminated owing to their spectra display￾ing features characteristic of AGN. except for 2 objects display narrow emission lines, which is expected for TDEs at late times. Broad emission is often only observed within roughly the first year after the peak flux (e.g. Nicholl et al. 2019).… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Comparison of the peak W2 luminosity to the input peak bolometric luminosity for a simple dust shell that is optically thin to its own emission. This assumes MRN dust with a single grain size of a = 0.1 µm and a density profile that scales like r −1 . The sublimation radius is depends on the input peak bolometric luminosity like rsub ∝ L 1/2 bol . We do not see a cut-off in the observed WISE W2 luminosity … view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: The spectra collected for this study. The red dashed lines represent relevant emission lines, labeled at the top of the figure. Grey shaded regions represent telluric regions of absorption. The sources displayed with an asterisk next to their name, WTP15abycom, WTP17aajhjm and WTP18aajxru, exhibit AGN spectral features and were thus excluded from the final sample [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_8.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Tidal Disruption Events (TDEs) serve as direct probes of the population of supermassive black holes in the center of galaxies and are nowadays regularly detected in optical wide-field time-domain sky surveys. Recent studies have demonstrated that a large fraction of TDEs can be uniquely identified in the infrared (IR) waveband, but these studies have to date been limited to relatively nearby events. In this work, we searched for highly luminous IR-bright TDEs that are rare and thus missed by searches in the local universe. We performed a systematic search of the NEOWISE archive and developed a new selection criterion based on the evolution of the W1-W2 color to select TDE candidates. We identified 10 IR bright TDEs with peak luminosities above $L_{\rm peak\, W2} \simeq 3 \times 10^{43}$ erg s$^{-1}$ and estimated an event rate of $1.2^{+0.5}_{-0.4}\times10^{-10}$ Mpc$^{-3}$year$^{-1}$ for the luminosity range of our sample. Compared to the existing local luminosity function of lower luminosity events, we detect a suppressed rate for these highly luminous events. This turn-over in the luminosity function can be naturally explained by the suppressed amount of TDEs taking place in systems with larger black hole masses, thereby confirming the TDE nature of our sources.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

3 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports a systematic search of the NEOWISE archive for high-luminosity mid-infrared TDEs using a new W1-W2 color-evolution selection criterion. It identifies 10 candidates with peak W2 luminosities ≳ 3 × 10^{43} erg s^{-1}, derives a volumetric rate of 1.2^{+0.5}_{-0.4} × 10^{-10} Mpc^{-3} yr^{-1}, and claims this rate is suppressed relative to the local lower-luminosity TDE luminosity function, with the turnover naturally explained by reduced TDE occurrence in systems hosting larger black holes.

Significance. If the sample is shown to be clean and the volumetric rate robustly computed, the result would constrain the high-luminosity tail of the TDE luminosity function and provide empirical support for a black-hole-mass dependence in TDE rates, consistent with theoretical expectations near the Hills mass.

major comments (3)
  1. [Abstract and search description] Abstract and search description: the 10 candidates are selected solely via W1-W2 color evolution, yet no quantitative false-positive rate, contamination estimate from variable AGN, or multi-wavelength/spectroscopic validation is supplied. This purity assumption is load-bearing for both the quoted rate and the suppression claim; even modest contamination would bring the high-L rate into consistency with a simple extrapolation of the local luminosity function.
  2. [Rate calculation section] Rate calculation section: the volumetric rate requires an explicit survey volume, redshift-dependent completeness corrections, and effective survey area, none of which are described or validated in the provided text. Without these, the numerical value 1.2^{+0.5}_{-0.4} × 10^{-10} Mpc^{-3} yr^{-1} cannot be assessed for systematic bias.
  3. [Rate comparison paragraph] Rate comparison paragraph: the claimed turnover is contrasted with an existing local luminosity function, but no quantitative assessment is given of differing selection functions (mid-IR color evolution versus optical surveys) or of whether the local LF baseline is directly comparable without selection-effect corrections.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract LaTeX notation L_{\rm peak\, W2} contains an extraneous backslash before the comma; standard formatting is L_{\rm peak, W2}.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

3 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive comments on our manuscript. We address each major comment below and will revise the paper to incorporate the requested clarifications and additions.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract and search description] Abstract and search description: the 10 candidates are selected solely via W1-W2 color evolution, yet no quantitative false-positive rate, contamination estimate from variable AGN, or multi-wavelength/spectroscopic validation is supplied. This purity assumption is load-bearing for both the quoted rate and the suppression claim; even modest contamination would bring the high-L rate into consistency with a simple extrapolation of the local luminosity function.

    Authors: We agree that a quantitative purity assessment is necessary to support the rate and suppression claims. The color-evolution criterion was developed to exploit the distinct mid-IR behavior of TDEs relative to AGN, but the original submission lacked a formal contamination estimate. In the revised manuscript we will add a dedicated subsection providing an estimate of the false-positive rate (using control samples of variable AGN from NEOWISE and any available multi-wavelength constraints on the candidates). revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Rate calculation section] Rate calculation section: the volumetric rate requires an explicit survey volume, redshift-dependent completeness corrections, and effective survey area, none of which are described or validated in the provided text. Without these, the numerical value 1.2^{+0.5}_{-0.4} × 10^{-10} Mpc^{-3} yr^{-1} cannot be assessed for systematic bias.

    Authors: The quoted rate was derived from the NEOWISE time baseline, sky coverage, and our selection efficiency, but these ingredients were not presented in sufficient detail. We will expand the rate-calculation section to explicitly state the survey volume, redshift-dependent completeness (including any injection-recovery validation), and effective area, allowing readers to evaluate possible systematic biases. revision: yes

  3. Referee: [Rate comparison paragraph] Rate comparison paragraph: the claimed turnover is contrasted with an existing local luminosity function, but no quantitative assessment is given of differing selection functions (mid-IR color evolution versus optical surveys) or of whether the local LF baseline is directly comparable without selection-effect corrections.

    Authors: We will revise the comparison paragraph to include a quantitative discussion of the differing selection functions. This will address how the mid-IR color-evolution criterion samples the luminosity function relative to optical surveys and will evaluate whether selection-effect corrections are required before claiming a turnover; any such corrections will be applied or estimated in the revised text. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: rate derived from direct counts and external comparison

full rationale

The paper estimates the volumetric rate directly from the 10 identified candidates in the NEOWISE archive using an assumed survey volume, then compares the result to an existing local luminosity function from prior independent work. No equations or steps reduce a claimed prediction to a fitted input by construction, no self-citations are load-bearing for the central result, and the selection criterion (W1-W2 color evolution) is presented as an independent development rather than a renaming or self-referential definition. The interpretive statement that the turnover 'confirms' the TDE nature is a consistency argument, not a tautological reduction of the rate itself. The derivation chain is therefore self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

Review performed on abstract only; full paper likely contains additional modeling assumptions for rate calculation and luminosity function fitting that are not visible here. No invented entities are introduced in the abstract.

free parameters (1)
  • volumetric rate
    The reported rate 1.2e-10 is derived from the 10-event sample and survey volume; exact fitting procedure not shown in abstract.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption W1-W2 color evolution selects TDEs with low contamination from other variables or transients
    Invoked to identify the 10 candidates and support their TDE classification.
  • domain assumption The local luminosity function of lower-luminosity TDEs is directly comparable without major selection biases
    Required for the suppression claim in the final sentence.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5811 in / 1500 out tokens · 59709 ms · 2026-07-01T03:42:46.561218+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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Reference graph

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