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Status of global fits to neutrino oscillations

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Submitted 18 May 2004 · 148 references

Pith's verdict: The standard 2004–2007 global neutrino fit: tables are genuinely new work, the θ13 bound is a Δχ² cut rather than a calibrated interval, and the authors say so themselves.

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arXiv IDhep-ph/0405172 (version 6)
Pith IDKHCJWEY4, Pith's permanent record of this paper and its review
CitationJ. W. F. Valle, M. A. Tortola, M. Maltoni, T. Schwetz. "Status of global fits to neutrino oscillations." arXiv:hep-ph/0405172 (2004). https://pith.science/paper/KHCJWEY4
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The paper

The paper claims

A single five-parameter fit to all neutrino oscillation data fixes the size of the last unknown mixing angle and with it the scale of CP violation in the lepton sector.

The reading

Three-flavour neutrino oscillations are described by five numbers: two mass-squared differences, three mixing angles. This paper's job is to extract those five numbers, with honest error bars, from every oscillation data set available in mid-2004 — solar rates and spectra, the KamLAND reactor spectrum, Super-K atmospheric zenith distributions, K2K, and the CHOOZ reactor limit — and to say what the result implies for the two small quantities that control whether neutrinos can violate CP. Those quantities are the hierarchy ratio $alpha = Delta m^2_{sol}/Delta m^2_{atm}$ and the mixing angle $theta_{13}$. The paper reports $alpha = 0.035$ with $0.024 leq alpha leq 0.060$ at $3sigma$, and $sin^2theta_{13} leq 0.047$ at $3sigma$ for one degree of freedom. The second number is the one that matters for planning: it says the CP-violating term in the oscillation probability is small, so any future experiment that wants to see leptonic CP violation has to be built to reach it.

What carries the argument

The load-bearing device is a five-dimensional $chi^2$ built from a pull-parameter treatment of every systematic uncertainty, minimised over $(sin^2theta_{12}, sin^2theta_{23}, sin^2theta_{13}, Delta m^2_{21}, Delta m^2_{31})$ and projected onto one- and two-dimensional subspaces. Two approximations make it tractable: $Delta m^2_{sol}$ is set to zero when fitting atmospheric and K2K data, and $Delta m^2_{atm}$ is set to infinity when fitting solar and KamLAND data, which also makes the Dirac CP phase drop out. The pull method is extended in two ways the paper flags as new: it handles correlated statistical errors, needed for the SNO salt data, and it treats each pull parameter exactly rather than to first order, which lets the fit choose its own compromise between the SNO neutral-current measurement and the Standard Solar Model prediction for the boron flux instead of expanding around the predicted value. A separate parameter-goodness-of-fit statistic, built from the sum of the individual data sets' $Delta chi^2$ functions rather than from the total $chi^2$, is what converts the solar-versus-atmospheric tension in four-neutrino schemes into a meaningful rejection level without being diluted by the large number of data points.

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that a global three-flavour fit to the 2004 data set returns a consistent, tightly constrained parameter set, and that the bound on $sin^2theta_{13}$ is no longer a CHOOZ monopoly. The best-fit points are $Delta m^2_{21} = 8.1 times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$, $Delta m^2_{31} = 2.2 times 10^{-3}$ eV$^2$, $sin^2theta_{12} = 0.30$, $sin^2theta_{23} = 0.50$, with $sin^2theta_{13}$ compatible with zero and bounded above at 0.047 ($3sigma$, 1 d.o.f.). The argument for the $theta_{13}$ bound is the paper's most consequential move: the authors show that solar plus KamLAND data alone now give $sin^2theta_{13} leq 0.079$ at $3sigma$, comparable to the CHOOZ-plus-atmospheric-plus-K2K bound of 0.067, and that the two constraints are complementary rather than redundant. Solar data disfavour the large $Delta m^2_{sol}$ that would let a nonzero $theta_{13}$ hide, while KamLAND's spectral distortion pins $Delta m^2_{sol}$ down and breaks the $sin^2theta_{13}$–$sin^2theta_{12}$ degeneracy. The paper also uses the same machinery to rule out four-neutrino schemes: (2+2) spectra fail at $4.9sigma$ from the disagreement between solar and atmospheric data on how much sterile neutrino participates, and (3+1) schemes are strongly disfavoured by short-baseline disappearance data, leaving the LSND anomaly without a satisfactory oscillation explanation.

Load-bearing premise

The KamLAND spectral information is read off a published ratio plot rather than from event-level data, so every KamLAND-derived number in the paper, including the $Delta m^2_{sol}$ best fit and the solar-plus-KamLAND share of the $theta_{13}$ bound, rests on that digitisation.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If $sin^2theta_{13} lesssim 0.05$, the CP-violating term in the long-baseline $nu_e to nu_mu$ appearance probability is suppressed by roughly this factor, so a next-generation superbeam or beta-beam must be designed around a small $theta_{13}$, not a large one.
  • The lower bound on $Delta m^2_{atm}$ from K2K, combined with the $Delta m^2_{atm}$-independent solar-plus-KamLAND bound on $theta_{13}$, prevents the CHOOZ limit from degrading at the low $Delta m^2_{atm}$ values implied by the new three-dimensional atmospheric fluxes.
  • Because $alpha$ is measured to be about 0.03, the sub-leading three-flavour corrections to atmospheric and long-baseline oscillations are small but not negligible, and the combination $alpha sin 2theta_{12} = 0.032$ (range 0.022 to 0.054) is the quantity a long-baseline experiment actually constrains.
  • The (2+2) four-neutrino explanation of LSND is excluded independently of whether LSND itself is confirmed, because the rejection comes from solar and atmospheric data disagreeing about the sterile fraction.
  • The oscillation interpretation of solar data survives departures from the Standard Solar Model, from random radiative-zone density fluctuations, and from sub-leading spin-flavour precession, up to the magnetic moment bounds the paper derives.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The paper's own later appendices show how much the headline numbers move with new data: by the 2007 update the $3sigma$ bound on $sin^2theta_{13}$ relaxes from 0.047 to 0.050 and the best fit shifts to a slightly nonzero 0.007. A reader should treat the 2004 numbers as a snapshot of a fit that was still being re-run, not as a fixed constant of nature.
  • The claim that solar plus KamLAND contributes materially to the $theta_{13}$ bound depends on a spectral-shape argument in KamLAND rather than on a rate. That makes the bound sensitive to the shape of the reactor flux and the energy-scale calibration in a way that the CHOOZ bound is not, so the two constraints are less independent than their separate listing suggests.
  • If the fit prefers a slightly negative $sin^2theta_{13}$ when the physical region is not imposed — as Appendix A.2 reports, at $Delta chi^2 approx 3.5$ before the $^{13}$C background correction — then the quoted upper bound is being set partly by a downward fluctuation, and a future experiment with better statistics could move the central value up without contradicting anything here.
  • The pattern that emerges, with two large angles, one small angle, and a hierarchy ratio near 0.03, is exactly the regime in which the CP-violating asymmetry is largest relative to the matter-induced fake asymmetry, so the smallness of $theta_{13}$ is bad news for statistics but not necessarily for the cleanliness of a CP measurement.
Original abstract

We review the present status of global analyses of neutrino oscillations, taking into account the most recent neutrino data including the latest KamLAND and K2K updates presented at Neutrino2004, as well as state-of-the-art solar and atmospheric neutrino flux calculations. We give the two-neutrino solar + KamLAND results, as well as two-neutrino atmospheric + K2K oscillation regions, discussing in each case the robustness of the oscillation interpretation against departures from the Standard Solar Model and the possible existence of non-standard neutrino physics. Furthermore, we give the best fit values and allowed ranges of the three-flavour oscillation parameters from the current worlds' global neutrino data sample and discuss in detail the status of the small parameters $\alpha \equiv \Dms/\Dma$ as well as $\sin^2\theta_{13}$, which characterize the strength of CP violating effects in neutrino oscillations. We also update the degree of rejection of four-neutrino interpretations of the LSND anomaly in view of the most recent developments.

The compiled record

The paper's own sentences, arranged, kept beside the review and separate from it. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.

Compiled by classifier-1.13-20260917 via OpenRouter, question bank abstract-p1-20260923, 2026-09-23: 1 request, 3,919 input tokens, $0.0002 reported.

What the abstract itself states, as probabilities: claims first 0.02 · states limitation 0.12 · human participants 0.02 · controlled comparison 0.06 · randomized assignment 0.01 · states quantitative result 0.15 · compares with prior results 0.34 · mentions code or data availability 0.02.

The abstract, sentence by sentence

arXiv listing abstract v6. Results and the main claim are underlined; .

We review the present status of global analyses of neutrino oscillations, taking into account the most recent neutrino data including the latest KamLAND and K2K updates presented at Neutrino2004, as well as state-of-the-art solar and atmospheric neutrino flux calculations. We give the two-neutrino solar + KamLAND results, as well as two-neutrino atmospheric + K2K oscillation regions, discussing in each case the robustness of the oscillation interpretation against departures from the Standard Solar Model and the possible existence of non-standard neutrino physics. Furthermore, we give the best fit values and allowed ranges of the three-flavour oscillation parameters from the current worlds' global neutrino data sample and discuss in detail the status of the small parameters $\alpha \equiv \Dms/\Dma$ as well as $\sin^2\theta_{13}$, which characterize the strength of CP violating effects in neutrino oscillations. We also update the degree of rejection of four-neutrino interpretations of the LSND anomaly in view of the most recent developments.

background contribution method result interpretation main claim

What the classifier reports for each sentence. The number is the probability it gave the label.
#sentencerolethe authors' own workstates the main conclusionstrength
s0 We review the present status of global analyses of neutrino oscillations, taking into account the most recent neutrino data including the latest KamLAND and K2K updates presented at Neutrino2004, as well as state-of-the-art solar and atmospheric neutrino flux calculations. contribution 0.91 0.49 0.07 asserted 0.70
s1 We give the two-neutrino solar + KamLAND results, as well as two-neutrino atmospheric + K2K oscillation regions, discussing in each case the robustness of the oscillation interpretation against departures from the Standard Solar Model and the possible existence of non-standard neutrino physics. contribution 0.82 0.81 0.08 asserted 0.87
s2 Furthermore, we give the best fit values and allowed ranges of the three-flavour oscillation parameters from the current worlds' global neutrino data sample and discuss in detail the status of the small parameters $\alpha \equiv \Dms/\Dma$ as well as $\sin^2\theta_{13}$, which characterize the strength of CP violating effects in neutrino oscillations. result 0.68 0.83 0.19 asserted 0.99
s3 We also update the degree of rejection of four-neutrino interpretations of the LSND anomaly in view of the most recent developments. contribution 0.70 0.74 0.08 asserted 0.84

What kind of paper the classifier reports this is: review 1.00 · evidence from analysis of existing data 0.99.

What was examined, and what was not

sources read
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  • figures and tables
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  • T body sentences
  • C citations
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Every quoted sentence on this record is the authors'. Every label is from Pith's closed vocabulary, with the probability shown beside it. Every number in the measurements table is the authors', checked by code. Record as JSON

Figures
Figure 1. Allowed (sin2 θatm, ∆m2 atm) regions at 90%, 95%, 99%, and 3σ C.L. for 2 d.o.f. The regions delimited by the lines correspond to atmospheric data only, while for the colored regions also K2K data are added. The best fit point of atmospheric (atmospheric + K2K) data is marked by a triangle (star). Also shown is the ∆χ 2 as a function of sin2 θatm and ∆m2 atm, minimized with respect to the undisplayed parameter. 2.2. The K2K accelerator experiment The KEK to Kamioka (K2K) long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment [16] probes the νµ disappearance oscillation channel in the same r
Figure 2. Allowed K2K regions in the (sin2 θatm, ∆m2 atm) plane at 90%, 95%, 99%, and 3σ C.L. for 2 d.o.f. The hollow lines delimit the region determined from the atmospheric data only. The star (triangle) corresponds to the K2K (atmospheric) best fit point. statistically compatible both with our previous result [30] and the value obtained by the new Super-K L/E analysis [33]. Let us remark that the K2K constraint on ∆m2 atm from below is important for future long-baseline experiments, since the performance of such experiments is drastically affected if ∆m2 atm were in the lower part of the 3
Figure 3. Effective flavour-changing NSI operator. feature in most neutrino mass models [51] and can be of two types: flavour-changing (FC) and non-universal (NU). These interactions (called NSI for short) may be schematically represented as effective dimension-6 terms of the type εGF , as illustrated in
Figure 4. Atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters from [50] fitted in the presence of non-standard interactions using the Bartol flux [39]. We show the behaviour of the χ 2 as a function of the four parameters ∆m2 atm (upper left), sin2 2θatm (lower left), the FC parameter ε (upper right), and the NU parameter ε ′ (lower right). In each panel the χ 2 is minimized with respect to the three undisplayed parameters. In the left panels we show also the pure oscillation case (OSC), with ε and ε ′ set to zero. oscillations allows to set strong bounds on NSI. From the right panels of
Figure 5. Allowed regions from all solar neutrino data at 90%, 95%, 99%, and 3σ C.L. for 2 d.o.f. in the plane of sin2 θsol and ∆m2 sol. The regions delimited by the curves correspond to the BP00 SSM [63], whereas for the colored regions the BP04 SSM [31] has been used. Also shown is ∆χ 2 as a function of sin2 θsol and ∆m2 sol, minimized with respect to the undisplayed parameter. The labeled contours denote constant CC/NC ratio in the SNO experiment. given in Ref. [64], are ruled out. Despite the fact that the BP04 model does not imply any significant change in the solar neutrino parameters
Figure 6. Allowed regions from KamLAND data at 90%, 95%, 99%, and 3σ C.L. for 2 d.o.f. for the 2002 data sample [14] (left panel) and the latest 766.3 ton-year data sample [15] (right panel). The regions delimited by the lines correspond to solar data. The KamLAND best fit points are marked with a star, the solar best fit point with a dot. problem, which in this way has been singled out as the only viable one. Before this experiment we had a very complex pattern of alternative oscillation solutions like LOW, SMA, or VAC, see e.g., Refs. [35, 36]. All of these are completely ruled out by the…
Figure 7. Allowed regions from combined solar and KamLAND data at 90%, 95%, 99%, and 3σ C.L. for 2 d.o.f.. The regions shown with lines correspond to solar data only, from
Figure 8. Effect of random matter density fluctuations with a correlation length of L0 = 100 km on the electron-neutrino survival probability for LMA oscillations. ∆m2 sol ≃ 1.4 × 10−4 eV2 at 3σ (see e.g., Ref. [30]) is now ruled out with a ∆χ 2 = 22.1 with respect to the global minimum, which corresponds to an exclusion at about 4.3σ for 2 d.o.f.. Notice also that the day/night data are treated as previously [30, 36]. An improved analysis of the day/night asymmetry data along the lines followed by the Super-K collaboration in Ref. [70] would lead to an even more pronounced rejection of the
Figure 9. Solar neutrino oscillation parameters with an arbitrary noise amplitude and a correlation length L0 = 100 km from combining solar data with 2002 KamLAND data (left panel) and 2004 KamLAND data (right panel). The contour lines refer to solar data only. helioseismic bounds turn out to be insensitive to fluctuations whose size is as small as those to which neutrinos are sensitive [74, 75] typically several hundreds of km. Second, recent studies have shown how such solar density fluctuations can arise near the solar equatorial plane in the presence of magnetic fields deep within the…
Figure 10. Bounds on random matter density fluctuations for a correlation length of L0 = 100 km from solar neutrino data, solar + KamLAND data, and solar data for oscillation parameters fixed at the best fit point. fluctuations are strongly constrained if the correlation length lies in the range of several hundred km. Comparing the curves for free and fixed oscillation parameters one notes that the bounds on fluctuations have already become rather stable, a situation that may still improve when the accuracy on ∆m2 sol and θsol gets improved by future neutrino experiments. Because oscillations…
Figure 11. Contours of the 90% C.L. bound on |Λ| in units of 10−10µB from combined solar and reactor data (left panel) and after 3 years of Borexino data-taking (right panel). The gray (light) shaded region is the 3σ LMA region obtained in the global analysis of solar neutrino data (best fit point marked with a triangle), whereas the green (dark) one corresponds to the 3σ region obtained after including the KamLAND results (best fit point marked with a star). The dashed line in the right panel corresponds to Pe1 = 0.5 for 7Be neutrinos, and shows the strongest attainable limit. Borexino is…
Figure 12. Projections of the allowed regions from the global oscillation data at 90%, 95%, 99%, and 3σ C.L. for 2 d.o.f. for various parameter combinations. Also shown is ∆χ 2 as a function of the oscillation parameters sin2 θ12,sin2 θ23,sin2 θ13, ∆m2 21, ∆m2 31, minimized with respect to all undisplayed parameters. 4.2. The small parameters α ≡ ∆m2 sol/∆m2 atm and θ13 Genuine three–flavour effects are associated to the mass hierarchy parameter α ≡ ∆m2 sol/∆m2 atm and the mixing angle θ13. In particular, in a three–neutrino scheme CP violation disappears in the limit where two neutrinos…
Figure 13. ∆χ 2 from global oscillation data as a function of α ≡ ∆m2 sol/∆m2 atm and α sin 2θ12. 10-2 10-1 sin2 θ 13 0 5 10 15 20 ∆χ 2 Atm + K2K + Chooz Solar + KamLAND Total Solar KamLAND 3σ 90% CL
Figure 14. ∆χ 2 profiles projected onto the sin2 θ13 axis, for solar, KamLAND, solar+KamLAND, atmospheric+K2K+CHOOZ, and for the global data. experiments (see, e.g., Refs. [26, 27, 40]). In
Figure 15. Upper bound on sin2 θ13 (1 d.o.f.) from solar+KamLAND+CHOOZ data as a function of ∆m2 atm. The dashed (solid) curve corresponds to the 90% (3σ) C.L. bound, the thin curves have been obtained with 2002 KamLAND data, whereas the thick curves follow from the recent 2004 KamLAND update. The light (dark) shaded region is excluded by CHOOZ data alone at 90% (3σ) C.L. The horizontal line corresponds to the best fit value of ∆m2 atm from atmospheric + K2K data given in Eq. (2), and the hatched regions are excluded by atmospheric + K2K data at 3σ according to Eq. (3). ∆m2 31 from…
Figure 16. Sections of the three–dimensional allowed regions in the (sin2 θsol, ∆m2 sol) plane at 90%, 95%, 99% and 3σ C.L. for 3 d.o.f. for various sin2 θ13 values from solar data (lines) and solar+KamLAND data (colored regions). The local minima in each plane from solar+KamLAND (solar only) data are marked by filled (open) dots. Let us discuss in some more detail the constraint on sin2 θ13 from solar data, which emerges from a subtle interplay of various solar neutrino observables. In
Figure 17. The two classes of six four–neutrino mass spectra, (3+1) and (2+2). ∼ 3.3σ away from zero. To explain this signal with neutrino oscillations requires a mass-squared difference ∆m2 lsnd ∼ 1 eV2 . Such a value is inconsistent with the mass￾squared differences required by solar/KamLAND and atmospheric/K2K experiments within the standard three–flavour framework. In this section we consider four–neutrino schemes, where a sterile neutrino [114, 115, 116] is added to the three active ones to provide the additional mass scale needed to reconcile the LSND evidence. We include in our…
Figure 18. Parameter dependence of the different data sets in our parameterization. parameters we use ηs, ηe and dµ. These quantities are defined by ηα = X i |Uαi| 2 with i ∈ solar mass states, (18) dα = 1 − X i |Uαi| 2 with i ∈ atmospheric mass states, (19) where α = e, µ, τ, s. Note that in (2+2) schemes the relation ηα = dα holds, whereas in (3+1) ηα and dα are independent. The physical meaning of these parameters is the following: ηα is the fraction of να participating in solar oscillations, and (1 − dα) is the fraction of να participating in oscillations with ∆m2 atm (for further…
Figure 19. Left: ∆χ 2 as a function of ηs from solar data before the SNO salt￾phase results, from current solar data, and from solar+KamLAND data. Middle: ∆χ 2 sol, ∆χ 2 atm+k2k+sbl and ¯χ 2 global as a function of ηs in (2+2) oscillation schemes. The dashed line corresponds to atmospheric and K2K data only (without SBL data). Right: ∆χ 2 atm+k2k as a function of dµ. 5.2. (2+2): ruled out by solar and atmospheric data The strong preference for oscillations into active neutrinos in solar and atmospheric oscillations [36] leads to a direct conflict in (2+2) oscillation schemes. We will now show…
Figure 20. Upper bound on sin2 2θlsnd from NEV, atmospheric and K2K neutrino data in (3+1) schemes. The bound is calculated for each ∆m2 lsnd using the ∆χ 2 for 1 d.o.f. The dotted line corresponds to the bound at 99% C.L. without K2K and using one–dimensional atmospheric fluxes. Also shown are the regions allowed at 99% C.L. (2 d.o.f.) from global LSND data [113] and decay-at-rest (DAR) LSND data [128]. against a sterile component, since the detailed informations which are needed to use these data are presently not available outside the Super-K collaboration. 5.3. (3+1): strongly disfavoured…

Figures reproduced from arXiv:hep-ph/0405172 by the authors.

References
How later papers used it

121 later papers cite it

Evidence: substantial. 102 of the citing papers share no author with it, and 54 of those carry a confident label from Pith's citation classifier.

Pith read 35 of the 191 citing sentences, choosing only those whose citation markers point at this paper alone, and wrote the paraphrases from them. The summary, the counts, the evidence level, the links and the quotes come from code; the summary counts the papers listed below. A later paper is listed under a label when Pith's citation classifier gives one of its sentences that label at probability 0.8 or more (0.95 for support), Pith's reading finds that the citing paper itself did it, and a second check confirms the paraphrase against the sentence. This section lists uses only. It does not list criticism or disagreement, so their absence here says nothing about how the paper has been received. Papers that share an author with this one are listed apart, under "By the same authors". A quote is the citing authors' own sentence, shown when their paper's licence is CC BY, CC BY-SA or CC0. JSON

Uses its data or values 18 of 52 papers with this label
How the literature uses it

118 arXiv papers cite this in 189 sentences

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Papers whose main result relates to this one's

Found among the papers closest to this one by title and main claim. Pith's classifier compared each pair's main results and a second model family confirmed the relation; checked against two further families, shown conflicts agreed 118 times in 120 and shown same results 218 times in 239. The quoted sentence is the other paper's main claim.

States the same result 3 papers
  • I give the allowed ranges of the three--flavour oscillation parameters from the current worlds' global neutrino data sample, their best fit values and discuss the small parameters DeltaM_solar/DeltaM_atm and sin^2 theta_13, which characterize the strength of CP violation in neutrino oscillations.

    Physics of Massive Neutrinos · 1.00

  • We determine the current best fit values and allowed ranges for the three-flavor oscillation parameters, discussing the relevance of each individual data set as well as the complementarity of different data sets.

    Status of neutrino oscillations I: the three-neutrino scenario · 0.88

  • The up-to-date best fit values and allowed ranges of the three-flavour oscillation parameters are determined from these data.

    Status of three-neutrino oscillations after the SNO-salt data · 0.83

Papers citing it · 88 sentences without a confident label

Contests it 1 paper
Uses its method or tool 1 paper
  • Relevant data about neutrinos and their parents was extracted for each event, and fed to a modified version of WimpSim in order to simulate neutrino interaction and propagation to a detector (either IceCube/DeepCore or Super-K) [ref] .[For propagation, we use the default WimpSim parameters: $θ_12 = 33.2^∘$, $θ_13 = 0.0^∘$, $θ_23 = 45.0^∘$, $δ= 0.0$, $Δm_21^2 = 8.1 ×10^-5 eV^2$ and $Δm_31^2 = 2.2 ×10^-3 eV^2$ [ref] , but our results are not particularly sensitive to the exact choice of these parameters.] To validate this method, we confirmed that the cross sections and branching ratios given by MadGraph agreed with those from analytic expressions for $2 →2$ annihilations in the static limit (e.g., from [ref] ).

    Neutrinos from Off-Shell Final States and the Indirect Detection of Dark Matter · $WW^∗$ · 0.99

Uses its data or values 51 papers
Compares with it 1 paper
Cites it as support 2 papers
Cites it as background 21 papers

Discussion

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