INDEX
Every paper Pith has read and judged, in one searchable index.
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stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Decision models carry causal bias that can flip treatment choices
Maurice Korf +3 · “Decision-analytical models as causal models”
2607.09397 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Spectral loss plus early stopping deconfounds gradient boosting
Andrea Nava +2 · “Spectrally Deconfounded Gradient Boosting”
2607.09371 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Multi-state network ties estimated in seconds
R\=uta Juozaitien\.e +1 · “Inference of large scale relational state processes”
2607.09363 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Noisy point samples add exact costs to functional regression rates
T. Tony Cai +1 · “The Cost of Discretization in Functional Linear Regression: Minimax Rates and Adaptation”
2607.09350 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Bayes unifies confirmation and falsification for working scientists
Jordan D. A. Hart +1 · “Rethinking the Scientific Method: An Introduction to Bayesian Epistemology”
2607.09281 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-10High-dim leave-one-out influences follow an explicit law
Hugo Cui · “Influence Diagnostics in High-dimensional M-estimation: Precise Asymptotics”
2607.09250 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Topology of random sets turns Gaussian for large windows
Vesna Gotovac {\DJ}oga\v{s} +1 · “Central Limit Theorems for Functionals of Persistence Diagrams in Germ-Grain Random Set Models with Applications to Goodness-of-Fit Testing”
2607.09228 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Meta-analysis needs no treatment network once effects are causal
Ahmed Boughdiri +3 · “Causal Perspectives on Network Meta-Analysis”
2607.09200 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-10SEIR rates can be swapped
Eduard Campillo-Funollet +1 · “Comprehensive identifiability analysis and reliable parameter estimation for an SEIR model”
2607.09137 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Panel rankings lift Markov-chain choice estimates
Yalcin Akcay +2 · “Estimation, Prediction, and Assortment Optimization for Markov Chain Choice Models with Panel Data”
2607.09817 -
math.OC arXiv submitted 2026-07-10High-prob fixed points under second-moment noise at rate ε^{-5}
Jelena Diakonikolas · “Solving Stochastic Fixed-Point Equations with High Probability”
2607.09097 -
cs.DS arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Almost-exact graph matching in almost-quadratic time
Jiale Cheng +2 · “Achieving Almost Exact Recovery in Almost Quadratic Time: Rank-Based Graph Matching via Local Tree Correlation Tests”
2607.09087 -
cs.DS arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Rank-based tree tests match graphs almost exactly in near-quadratic time
Jiale Cheng +2 · “Achieving Almost Exact Recovery in Almost Quadratic Time: Rank-Based Graph Matching via Local Tree Correlation Tests”
2607.09087 -
cs.DS arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Almost-exact graph matching in almost quadratic time
Jiale Cheng +2 · “Achieving Almost Exact Recovery in Almost Quadratic Time: Rank-Based Graph Matching via Local Tree Correlation Tests”
2607.09087 -
cs.AI arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Five of 15 AI models are worse than random at judging their accuracy
Matthew ffrench-Constant +3 · “ConfidenceBench: Evaluating Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models”
2607.20526 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Third view breaks the b=2 matching barrier
Timothy L. H. Wee +3 · “Geometric planted matchings in high dimensions: The power of multiple views”
2607.09026 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-10Orthogonal designs cut Bayesian spline loops 5–60x
Nurul Fitriyani +1 · “Orthogonalized Design Matrices Speed-ups of Bayesian Semiparametric Regression”
2607.09013 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Invariant kernels recover quotient geometry of symmetric data
Yeari Vigder +5 · “Group Invariant Spectral Embedding”
2607.08987 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Top-k from pairwise tests now hits the information limit
Motti Goldberger +1 · “Optimal Top-$k$ Identification from Pairwise Comparisons”
2607.08979 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Partial action features still allow √T bandit regret
Gautam Dasarathy +2 · “Stochastic Linear Bandits with Partially Observed Actions”
2607.08971 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-09LLM labels leave a risk floor no amount of data can erase
Berkay Anahtarci · “NL-PAC: Specification Ambiguity and Certified Minimax Risk Floors in LLM-Mediated Supervision”
2607.08961 -
math.OC arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Local regularity alone gives KKT rates for nonconvex ALM
Linglingzhi Zhu +1 · “Nonconvex Composite Functional Constraints via First-Order Augmented Lagrangian Methods under Local Regularity”
2607.08954 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Test shows when personalizing interventions beats one-size-fits-all
Zhaoqi Li +1 · “A Statistical Test for the Benefits of Personalizing Interventions”
2607.08951 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09GAMs predict better past training range with EVT linear tails
Viviana Carcaiso +3 · “Extrapolation of extreme covariates in generalized additive regression using extreme-value theory”
2607.08921 -
q-bio.NC arXiv submitted 2026-07-09EEG measure finds amplitude coupling phase methods miss
Md. Taksimul Ahsan Tawhid +3 · “Spatial Neighboring Scattering Transform: A Cross-Channel Amplitude Coupling Measure for EEG Connectivity”
2607.08855 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Tiny Score Error Can Still Make Diffusion Samplers Diverge
Yiwei Zhou · “Score Accuracy Along the Forward Diffusion Does Not Certify Numerical Stability in Diffusion Sampling”
2607.08757 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Two frequentist methods pool binary N-of-1 trial data despite overdispersion
Majnu John +3 · “Accounting for overdispersion and clustering in binomial data from N-of-1 trials”
2607.08722 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Adaptive shrinkage prior sharpens small-area survey variance estimates
Sirapat Watakajaturaphon +1 · “On improving the estimates of the sampling variances via Global-Local priors in Small Area Estimation”
2607.08720 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Pooled insurance claims sample the wrong distribution under frequency-severity dependence
Christopher Blier-Wong · “Severity estimation in dependent collective risk models”
2607.08719 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Four-plus-delta moments suffice for low-rank matrix recovery
Gao Huang +1 · “Low-Rank Matrix Recovery via Heavy-Tailed Quadratic Sampling”
2607.08671 -
econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-09The experiment's randomization can estimate and test the spillover map
Yechan Park · “A Design-Based Approach to Testing and Inference in (Quasi-)Experiments with Spillovers”
2607.08640 -
econ.EM arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Randomization itself reveals how far policy spillovers reach
Yechan Park · “A Design-Based Approach to Testing and Inference in (Quasi-)Experiments with Spillovers”
2607.08640 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Laplacian spectra catch regime shifts topological summaries miss
Shiheng Nie +1 · “Online Change-Point Detection with Persistent Laplacian Features”
2607.08635 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Persistent Laplacian spectra catch changes Betti counts miss
Shiheng Nie +1 · “Online Change-Point Detection with Persistent Laplacian Features”
2607.08635 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Standardizing data recovers unknown affine transforms for matching
Tigran Galstyan +2 · “Exact Permutation Recovery Under Unknown Scalar Affine Transformation”
2607.08628 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Positive Lyapunov exponent blocks natural coupling forgetfulness
Paul Doukhan +1 · “Functional dependence and synchronous coupling in ergodic autoregressions”
2607.08567 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Tree counts recover Gaussian matches at constant correlation
Xiaochun Niu +2 · “High-Dimensional Procrustes Matching via Tree Counts”
2607.08538 -
stat.AP arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Uniswap fee cut left LP liquidity largely unchanged
Wen-Ting Wang · “Causal Effects of Protocol-Fee Changes on Liquidity Provision in Automated Market Makers”
2607.08525 -
cs.SI arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Chile's Congress elite share fell from half to 12%
Naim Bro +1 · “Elitism in the Aisle: A Long-Run Surname Measure of Legislative Elite Composition in Chile, 1834-2020”
2607.08520 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09One recipe re-runs every survey-weighting step on each replicate
Juan Pablo Ferreira · “weightflow: declarative, recipe-aware survey weighting in R”
2607.08491 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Screening recovers service times from workload at log/√n rate
Royi Jacobovic +1 · “A two-stage screening method for nonparametric inference from the M/G/1 workload”
2607.08472 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Two-stage screening recovers queue service times at near-parametric rate
Royi Jacobovic +1 · “A two-stage screening method for nonparametric inference from the M/G/1 workload”
2607.08472 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Interleaving balls give object-level Reeb confidence
Matteo Pegoraro +2 · “Building confidence regions for Reeb graphs using the interleaving distance”
2607.08458 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Quantile RL estimators hit √n rates and stay efficient as m grows
Zijie Cheng +2 · “Statistical Efficiency and Inference of Quantile Distributional Reinforcement Learning”
2607.08444 -
stat.ML arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Quantile return estimators hit the parametric rate and stay efficient
Zijie Cheng +2 · “Statistical Efficiency and Inference of Quantile Distributional Reinforcement Learning”
2607.08444 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Bayesian prior recovers gene networks under heavy tails
Samaneh Nazari +2 · “Bayesian DAG Structure Learning with Simultaneous Shrinkage Covariance Estimation under Scale-Mixture Error Distributions in the Proportional High-Dimensional Regime”
2607.08428 -
math.ST arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Random weights turn nonnegative means into exact p-values
Nikos Vlassis +1 · “An Exact Distribution-Free Test for Means of Nonnegative Random Variables”
2607.08415 -
cs.LG arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Random mutations alone can train deep nets and a small Transformer
Hong Zhao · “Beyond Backpropagation: Monte Carlo Method Can Train Deep Neural Networks”
2607.08406 -
stat.ME arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Separability tests reduce to sphericity after MLE whitening
Tomas Masak +2 · “Testing Covariance Separability in High Dimensions”
2607.08388 -
cs.IT arXiv submitted 2026-07-09Constants turn uniformity testing into a usable SNR
Alon Kipnis · “Why Constants Matter in Distribution Testing: From Uniformity to Calibration”
2607.08378